论美术新课程教学过程的特征

新的《全日制义务教育美术课程标准(实验稿)》,要求美术教育以发展学生的艺术素养、人文素养及促进学生的发展为主要目标。新标准要求下的美术教育与传统美术教育相比,教学过程具有学生中心性、综合性、过程性、实践性、开放性、创造性、师生互动性、美育性、兴趣性和个性性等新的特征。     

Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes

Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed.     

Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

科学发展观是与时俱进的马克思主义发展观

科学发展观是对马克思主义关于发展理论的继承与发展,是与时俱进的马克思主义发展观。这一发展观是以邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想为指导、从新世纪新阶段我国的发展全局出发而提出的重大战略思想,是我们党对社会主义现代化建设指导思想的新发展,标志着我们党执政理念的新飞跃。     

Household strategies in the face of resource scarcity in coastal Ghana: are they associated with development priorities?

In many developing regions, women and young girls spend several hours daily in the collection of natural resources. Still the link between these household resource strategies and stakeholder perceptions of development priorities remains unexplored. This project examines this association with survey data representative of the adult population from Ghana’s Coastal Region. Although natural resource scarcity and the sustainability of resource use represent key development challenges, there are others (e.g., energy, sanitation, employment, and educational opportunities). As such, even in the face of natural resource scarcity, individuals may place greater importance on other dimensions of development, especially if household resource strategies are perceived as relatively efficient. The analytical focus here is on water and the results suggest that gender roles shape household water collection strategies, while also shaping these strategies’ perceived opportunity costs. Specifically, Ghanian adults more often see drinking water provision as their primary development need when water sources are distant and/or when male household members collect water (particularly male heads). In the end, I argue that social science inquiry benefits by contextualizing social dynamics within environmental context, particularly within cultural settings in which human subsistence is intimately tied to the state of the natural environment.     

反垄断法中相关市场的界定标准

相关市场是竞争法中的基础性概念,对所有限制竞争行为的讨论都必须以界定相关市场为基础。相关市场又分为相关产品市场、相关地理市场和相关时间市场。结合相关案例和经济学理论对三种市场进行讨论,可以为我国反垄断立法中关于相关市场的立法和执法提供借鉴。     

中国近30 年来的农村改革发展历程回顾与展望

文章重点从农村改革的整体性、综合性、协调性和党在农村政策的稳定性、连续性、实效性等方面入手,把我国近30年来的农村改革发展历程划分为三个不同的时期:即从1978年到1988年,是农村改革的起步阶段,出现了第一个“黄金发展期”;从1988年到1998年,是农村改革的停滞阶段,出现了“三农综合症”;从1998年10月至今,是农村改革的快速推进阶段,出现了第二个“黄金发展期”。全面准确地认识和把握我国农村改革的历史进程,对于科学制定农村综合改革的整体方案及相关配套政策措施至关重要。     

国际化:建设世界一流大学的必由之路

国际化是世界一流大学的基本特征 ,国际化在世界一流大学的创建过程中具有特别重要的作用。但我国大学在创建世界一流大学过程中普遍对国际化重视不够 ,这在客观上制约着我国世界一流大学的建设进程。要改变这种状况 ,一要准确理解大学国际化的概念 ,克服思想认识的种种误区 ;二要采取有力措施 ,迅速促进我国大学国际化的进程     

论人与自然的本原性和谐--自然之所以美的一个重要原因

以往的种种自然美理论 ,特别是“自然人化”说都程度不同地忽略了自然之所以美的一个重要原因 :人与自然的本原性和谐。它是人与自然的一种主要由血缘决定的自然而然、发自内心、不言自明、近似本能性的特殊的情感关系。“黄金时代”史前研究为其奠定了史前史的发生学基础 ,“归依体验”理论为其提供了审美心理学的印证 ,“回归自然”的主张和实际行动为其出具了历史实践证明 ,著名思想家的代表性论述为其积累了极富启迪的思想资料。     

评货物所有权移转之立法例——兼论各国立法协调之可能性

货物所有权移转的时间问题 ,是货物买卖中的一个最为重要也是最为敏感的问题。本文采用比较法的研究方法 ,在分析与评价关于货物所有权移转的主要立法例的基础上 ,探讨各国立法协调之可能性。本文认为 ,交付主义为最佳选择模式 ;尽管关于货物所有权移转的时间采取的立法例不尽相同 ,但这绝对不意味着没有协调的可能性。就实际情况而言 ,各国或地区的有关立法对此问题的规定正在走向趋同 ,即采用交付主义或向交付主义靠拢。各国或地区立法之所以具有协调的可能性 ,这是由于当代社会经济的国际化、一体化的特点所决定的