全文获取类型
收费全文 | 170篇 |
免费 | 8篇 |
国内免费 | 1篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 77篇 |
民族学 | 2篇 |
丛书文集 | 13篇 |
理论方法论 | 3篇 |
综合类 | 79篇 |
社会学 | 1篇 |
统计学 | 4篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 7篇 |
2021年 | 1篇 |
2020年 | 8篇 |
2019年 | 12篇 |
2018年 | 7篇 |
2017年 | 5篇 |
2016年 | 6篇 |
2015年 | 7篇 |
2014年 | 11篇 |
2013年 | 8篇 |
2012年 | 13篇 |
2011年 | 8篇 |
2010年 | 7篇 |
2009年 | 7篇 |
2008年 | 8篇 |
2007年 | 10篇 |
2006年 | 8篇 |
2005年 | 4篇 |
2004年 | 6篇 |
2003年 | 8篇 |
2002年 | 6篇 |
2001年 | 4篇 |
2000年 | 7篇 |
1999年 | 2篇 |
1998年 | 1篇 |
1995年 | 2篇 |
1992年 | 1篇 |
1991年 | 2篇 |
1988年 | 2篇 |
1984年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有179条查询结果,搜索用时 234 毫秒
1.
Dennis Wagenaar Tiaravanni Hermawan Marc J. C. van den Homberg Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts Heidi Kreibich Hans de Moel Laurens M. Bouwer 《Risk analysis》2021,41(1):37-55
Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer. 相似文献
2.
Klaus Schneeberger Matthias Huttenlau Benjamin Winter Thomas Steinberger Stefan Achleitner Johann Sttter 《Risk analysis》2019,39(1):125-139
This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately. 相似文献
3.
Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk. 相似文献
4.
冯敏 《中南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2006,26(3):173-176
本文以西南和中南少数民族民间故事中的洪水神话对人类学族群认同研究的作用为例,说明民间文学作品对人类学研究的作用.指出,由于民间文学收集整理方面的原因,致使它作为人类学研究资料具有不足之处. 相似文献
5.
Perry C. Oddo Ben S. Lee Gregory G. Garner Vivek Srikrishnan Patrick M. Reed Chris E. Forest Klaus Keller 《Risk analysis》2020,40(1):153-168
Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies. 相似文献
6.
Igor Linkov 《Risk analysis》2012,32(8):1349-1368
Recent severe storm experiences in the U.S. Gulf Coast illustrate the importance of an integrated approach to flood preparedness planning that harmonizes stakeholder and agency efforts. Risk management decisions that are informed by and address decision maker and stakeholder risk perceptions and behavior are essential for effective risk management policy. A literature review and two expert models/mental models studies were undertaken to identify areas of importance in the flood risk management process for layperson, non‐USACE‐expert, and two USACE‐expert groups. In characterizing and mapping stakeholder beliefs about risks in the literature onto current risk management practice, recommendations for accommodating and changing stakeholder perceptions of flood risks and their management are identified. Needs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) flood preparedness and response program are discussed in the context of flood risk mental models. 相似文献
7.
杨建生 《上海理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2016,38(4):338-343
以英语方式副词位置为强化对象,研究输入流、文本强化以及两者结合使用这三种输入强化方式是否能够帮助学习者习得英语方式副词的位置规则,并对其效果进一步深入探讨。实验结果表明:三种输入强化方式都能帮助学生习得方式副词位置规则,但输入强化的有效应用是有条件的,输入强化的效果会受研究中受试者以及被强化的对象等因素的影响。此外,相对于单一强化,复合强化通常更能有效地促进目标语的学习,但当单一强化能有效地促进目标语学习的时候,复合强化不能帮助学习者取得显著性的优异成绩,从而表明复合强化并不总是必要的。 相似文献
8.
清末时期,安徽淮河流域水旱灾害频发,对该地区的农业经济和农村社会秩序产生了严重的影响,主要包括对农作物的破坏,对农田水利设施的损坏,对农业劳动力的伤害,造成农业人口的大量流动,扰乱正常的农村经济秩序和农村社会秩序混乱动荡等方面。 相似文献
9.
长江三角洲城市群洪涝灾害脆弱性评估及影响因素分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
长江三角洲城市群人口、财产、基础设施高度密集,暴雨洪涝灾害带来的影响越来越大,对该区域城市洪涝灾害脆弱性进行评估是保障长江三角洲区域一体化、可持续发展的基础。以长江三角洲城市群中心区27个城市为研究对象,基于超效率DEA模型,将洪涝灾害脆弱性看作一个负面“生产活动”,构建城市洪涝灾害脆弱性评估模型,在分析脆弱性空间分异特征的基础上确定该地区城市洪涝灾害脆弱性的主要影响因素。结果显示:从整体上看,长江三角洲城市群洪涝灾害脆弱性水平差异较大,安徽及浙江远高于江苏和上海,其中,上海的洪灾脆弱性最低;从空间上看,脆弱性分布有明显的地域集聚特征,脆弱性高的城市分布在浙江东南沿海和安徽南部丘陵地区;降雨量、城市发展水平及基础设施的完善性等因素对城市洪涝灾害脆弱性影响显著。 相似文献
10.
史阳 《长江大学学报(社会科学版)》2006,29(6):22-27
菲律宾洪水神话异文的具体情节不尽相同,但其隐含的基本叙事结构却是共同的,都可以划分为开端、中介、结尾三个发展阶段,于是可以用一个统一的情节结构纲目来归纳各异文中的情节发展。它们在宏观叙事结构上具有“蜕变型”的统一范式,意味着由旧秩序向新秩序的蜕变。 相似文献