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1.
Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war. 相似文献
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范波 《重庆大学学报(社会科学版)》2002,8(5):33-35
文章介绍进入买方市场后 ,产能有限的制造企业进行需求管理的重要性 ,对需求管理的内涵、基本内容 (包括销售预测、订单管理、出货管理、销售分析 )、方法工具和工作流程进行具体分析。 相似文献
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组合预测误差信息矩阵研究 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
唐小我 《电子科技大学学报(社会科学版)》1992,(4)
研究组合预测误差信息矩阵的结构与组合预测方法性质之间的联系,首次提出冗余信息概念,对最优组合预测方法的组合结构进行了研究。 相似文献
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从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手,首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下,如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差,从而提高估计精度,更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。 相似文献
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Traditionally, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting. However, the ARIMA model cannot easily capture the nonlinear patterns. Support vector machines (SVMs), a novel neural network technique, have been successfully applied in solving nonlinear regression estimation problems. Therefore, this investigation proposes a hybrid methodology that exploits the unique strength of the ARIMA model and the SVMs model in forecasting stock prices problems. Real data sets of stock prices were used to examine the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model. The results of computational tests are very promising. 相似文献
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作为深入乡土社会的“事件”,精准扶贫触发了国家政权和乡土社会之间的分歧。在数字化治理技术与乡土生活模糊性之间、国家正式权力与农村内生秩序之间、“区分逻辑”与乡土社会“平均主义”之间,两者存在明显差异。面对分歧,农村基层在精准扶贫过程中采取“村民评议”制度形成“接点治理”格局。研究发现,村民评议形成的接点治理主要包括以下治理机制:以熟人社会构成治理的信息机制,以多元主体参与构成治理的权威机制,以协商讨论构成治理的合法化机制。这一制度创造了新型制度场域和治理接点,有利于实现国家政权与乡土社会之间的融合。推进对湘西B村“村民评议”的个案分析,发掘其中的治理机制,完善其中存在的不足,实现从接点分离到接点融合,推进基层社会的有效治理。 相似文献
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Variable precision rough set theory and data discretisation: an application to corporate failure prediction 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Since the seminal work of Pawlak (International Journal of Information and Computer Science, 11 (1982) 341–356) rough set theory (RST) has evolved into a rule-based decision-making technique. To date, however, relatively little empirical research has been conducted on the efficacy of the rough set approach in the context of business and finance applications. This paper extends previous research by employing a development of RST, namely the variable precision rough sets (VPRS) model, in an experiment to predict between failed and non-failed UK companies. It also utilizes the FUSINTER discretisation method which neglates the influence of an ‘expert’ opinion. The results of the VPRS analysis are compared to those generated by the classical logit and multivariate discriminant analysis, together with more closely related non-parametric decision tree methods. It is concluded that VPRS is a promising addition to existing methods in that it is a practical tool, which generates explicit probabilistic rules from a given information system, with the rules offering the decision maker informative insights into classification problems. 相似文献
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