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1.
Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports. 相似文献
2.
Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment. 相似文献
3.
Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t-distribution 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Adelchi Azzalini Antonella Capitanio 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(2):367-389
Summary . A fairly general procedure is studied to perturb a multivariate density satisfying a weak form of multivariate symmetry, and to generate a whole set of non-symmetric densities. The approach is sufficiently general to encompass some recent proposals in the literature, variously related to the skew normal distribution. The special case of skew elliptical densities is examined in detail, establishing connections with existing similar work. The final part of the paper specializes further to a form of multivariate skew t -density. Likelihood inference for this distribution is examined, and it is illustrated with numerical examples. 相似文献
4.
我国产业间波及效应的探讨 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
从理论上来说,某一产业的变化会引起其它产业间的连锁反映。产业间的波及效应可以通过投入系数表来加以分析。通过实证分析,研究我国产业间波及效应的强弱,可以为国家制定产业政策、优化产业结构提供依据。 相似文献
5.
The problem of constructing control charts for fuzzy data has been considered in literature. The proposed transformation approaches and direct fuzzy approaches have their advantages and disadvantages. The representative values charts based on transformation methods are often recommended in practical application. For representing a fuzzy set by a crisp value, the weight of importance of the members assigned with some membership levels in a fuzzy set should be considered, and the possibility theory can be employed to deal with such problem. In this article, we propose to employ the weighted possibilistic mean (WPM), weighted interval valued possibilistic mean (WIVPM) of fuzzy number as a sort of representative values for the fuzzy attribute data, and establish new fuzzy control charts with WPM and WIVPM. The performance of the charts is compared to the existing fuzzy charts with a fuzzy c-chart example via newly defined average number of inspection for variation of control state. 相似文献
6.
Longitudinal categorical data are commonly applied in a variety of fields and are frequently analyzed by generalized estimating equation (GEE) method. Prior to making further inference based on the GEE model, the assessment of model fit is crucial. Graphical techniques have long been in widespread use for assessing the model adequacy. We develop alternative graphical approaches utilizing plots of marginal model-checking condition and local mean deviance to assess the GEE model with logit link for longitudinal binary responses. The applications of the proposed procedures are illustrated through two longitudinal binary datasets. 相似文献
7.
Jianlan Zhong 《统计学通讯:模拟与计算》2017,46(1):106-126
The close relationship between quality and maintenance of manufacturing systems has contributed to the development of integrated models which use the concept of statistical process control (SPC) and maintenance. This article demonstrates the integration of the Shewhart individual-residual (ZX ? Ze) joint control chart and maintenance for two-stage dependent processes by jointly optimizing their policies to minimize the expected total costs associated with quality, maintenance and inspection. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, two stand-alone models—a maintenance model and an SPC model—are proposed. Then a numerical example is given to illustrate the application of the proposed integrated model. The results show that the integrated model outperforms the two stand-alone models with regard to the expected cost per unit time. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to develop insights into time parameters and cost parameters that influence the integration efforts. 相似文献
8.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(8):1463-1478
In some situations, an appropriate quality measure uses three or more discrete levels to classify a product characteristic. For these situations, some control charts have been developed based on statistical criteria regardless of economic considerations. In this paper, we develop economic and economic statistical designs (ESD) for 3-level control charts. We apply the cost model proposed by Costa and Rahim.[Economic design of X charts with variable parameters: the Markov chain approach, J Appl Stat 28 (2001), 875–885] Furthermore, we assume that the length of time that the process remains in control is exponentially distributed which allows us to apply the Markov chain approach for developing the cost model. We apply a genetic algorithm to determine the optimal values of model parameters by minimizing the cost function. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed models and to compare the cost of the pure economic and ESD for three-level control charts. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted in this numerical example. 相似文献
9.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(3):287-299
The conventional Shewhart-type control chart is developed essentially on the central limit theorem. Thus, the Shewhart-type control chart performs particularly well when the observed process data come from a near-normal distribution. On the other hand, when the underlying distribution is unknown or non-normal, the sampling distribution of a parameter estimator may not be available theoretically. In this case, the Shewhart-type charts are not available. Thus, in this paper, we propose a parametric bootstrap control chart for monitoring percentiles when process measurements have an inverse Gaussian distribution. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate the behaviour and performance of the proposed bootstrap percentile charts. The average run lengths of the proposed percentage charts are investigated. 相似文献
10.
杨丽娟 《合肥学院学报(社会科学版)》2012,(1):112-115
高校的泛行政化并不是当下才有的现象,而是古已有之。弄清高校的这种泛行政化现象的源头所在以及高校泛行政化的具体流变过程,需要对我国古代官学系统进行系统的分析,用图谱演绎的方法来对古代官学系统演进过程进行研究,是实现对高校泛行政化溯本求源的有效方法之一。 相似文献