论历史演义的虚构性

明清时期对历史演义的性质存在着争议,有些评论家认为历史演义是正史的通俗版,因而极力反对在历史演义中进行虚构。但大量的创作实践证明,为了增强作品的可读性,历史演义不可能句句依傍正史,必然在细节描写、心理刻画、语言描写、环境烘托等方面进行虚构,从而使历史演义成为虚实结合的历史小说。     

小波分析在管理数据处理中的应用

提出了一种基于小波变换的管理数据处理方法，把公司管理上的数据看成一个非平稳的时间序列，利用小渡函数将该时间序列分解到不同的频率通道上，然后将分解后的信号当作近似的平稳时间序列，用一些传统的统计方法进行预测，同时对中国足球彩票若干期的销售量数据进行了处理和预测，并将结果与实际销量以及用传统的AR模型的预测值进行了比较。     

精英意识与大众文化的契合——方方的“警察故事”小说特点探析

纵观方方的警察故事题材的小说,可以见出其创作上的特点及变化,体现了方方对人生及历史新的思索与探讨,表明作者在精英文化与大众文化之间寻找的最佳契合点     

立意宏大开掘精深--评刘业超著《雷沛鸿高等教育理论研究》

《雷沛鸿高等教育理论研究》作为全国教育规划国家教委重点课题研究成果 ,对中国近代教育家雷沛鸿的高教理论进行了系统研究和现实延伸 ,达到了对高教的现实模式进行系统扬弃 ,对其逻辑模式进行全面探索的目的。全书立意宏大 ,开掘精深 ,是一部颇为成功的学术力作。该书特点主要是 :内容全面 ,概括精当 ;分析透彻 ,创获良多 ;运用比较法 ,突出了雷氏思想的特色 ;注意历史与现实的联系 ;学术性与可读性的有机结合。     

李觏遗存及祭祀述略

文章在查阅文献和实地考察的基础上，就抚州市区内李觏的遗存和历代祭祀情况作简要、客观的记述介绍，为李觏的研究者提供资料参照，其中，“龙马书院”过去少有提及，尤为值得关注。     

大吴文化研究纵横谈

大吴文化是一种广义的地域文化 ,即从古到今 ,吴地人民所创造的一切文化的总汇。吴地地域的界定 ,有广义、狭义之分 ,广义的吴地地域的界定应以历史政区和吴语分布区为依据。从大吴文化视角出发 ,可将吴文化视为一种丰富的知识性的资源 ,人们可纵横结合 ,从人类社会的多个层面予以研究、开发和利用。在长期的发展中 ,吴文化形成了先吴文化、吴国文化、吴地文化三个时期。吴文化具有自己的鲜明特色 ,其中主要有依托水 ;融合古今 ,汇通中西 ;后来居上 ,敢为天下先等     

Olive Oil Consumption in Greece: A Microeconometric Analysis

In this paper, the factors affecting at-home demand for three types of oils and fats in Greece, with emphasis on olive oil, are investigated using the linear approximation of the Almost Ideal Demand System and family budget survey data. To overcome the econometric problem created with the existence of zero expenditure, a generalization of the two-stage Heckman procedure is employed. In order to investigate the role of self-consumption, two different samples were used. The first includes all households; the second excludes those that acquire olive oil only from own production. According to the results, there are important differences in the first stage of the decision process between the two samples. Unlike the first stage, the second stage of the decision process found no important differences between the results for the two samples.     

Type I error rates from likelihood‐based repeated measures analyses of incomplete longitudinal data

The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach is commonly utilized to handle missing values in the primary analysis of clinical trials. However, recent evidence suggests that likelihood‐based analyses developed under the missing at random (MAR) framework are sensible alternatives. The objective of this study was to assess the Type I error rates from a likelihood‐based MAR approach – mixed‐model repeated measures (MMRM) – compared with LOCF when estimating treatment contrasts for mean change from baseline to endpoint (Δ). Data emulating neuropsychiatric clinical trials were simulated in a 4 × 4 factorial arrangement of scenarios, using four patterns of mean changes over time and four strategies for deleting data to generate subject dropout via an MAR mechanism. In data with no dropout, estimates of Δ and SE_Δ from MMRM and LOCF were identical. In data with dropout, the Type I error rates (averaged across all scenarios) for MMRM and LOCF were 5.49% and 16.76%, respectively. In 11 of the 16 scenarios, the Type I error rate from MMRM was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate of 5.00% than the corresponding rate from LOCF. In no scenario did LOCF yield a Type I error rate that was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate than the corresponding rate from MMRM. The average estimate of SE_Δ from MMRM was greater in data with dropout than in complete data, whereas the average estimate of SE_Δ from LOCF was smaller in data with dropout than in complete data, suggesting that standard errors from MMRM better reflected the uncertainty in the data. The results from this investigation support those from previous studies, which found that MMRM provided reasonable control of Type I error even in the presence of MNAR missingness. No universally best approach to analysis of longitudinal data exists. However, likelihood‐based MAR approaches have been shown to perform well in a variety of situations and are a sensible alternative to the LOCF approach. MNAR methods can be used within a sensitivity analysis framework to test the potential presence and impact of MNAR data, thereby assessing robustness of results from an MAR method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ASSESSING CONGRUENCEAMONG DISTANCE MATRICES: SINGLE-MALT SCOTCH WHISKIES REVISITED

A test of congruence among distance matrices is described. It tests the hypothesis that several matrices, containing different types of variables about the same objects, are congruent with one another, so they can be used jointly in statistical analysis. Raw data tables are turned into similarity or distance matrices prior to testing; they can then be compared to data that naturally come in the form of distance matrices. The proposed test can be seen as a generalization of the Mantel test of matrix correspondence to any number of distance matrices. This paper shows that the new test has the correct rate of Type I error and good power. Power increases as the number of objects and the number of congruent data matrices increase; power is higher when the total number of matrices in the study is smaller. To illustrate the method, the proposed test is used to test the hypothesis that matrices representing different types of organoleptic variables (colour, nose, body, palate and finish) in single‐malt Scotch whiskies are congruent.     

Estimation of Hazard, Density and Survivor Functions for Randomly Censored Data

Maximum likelihood estimation and goodness-of-fit techniques are used within a competing risks framework to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of hazard, density, and survivor functions for randomly right-censored variables. Goodness-of- fit techniques are used to fit distributions to the crude lifetimes, which are used to obtain an estimate of the hazard function, which, in turn, is used to construct the survivor and density functions of the net lifetime of the variable of interest. If only one of the crude lifetimes can be adequately characterized by a parametric model, then semi-parametric estimates may be obtained using a maximum likelihood estimate of one crude lifetime and the empirical distribution function of the other. Simulation studies show that the survivor function estimates from crude lifetimes compare favourably with those given by the product-limit estimator when crude lifetimes are chosen correctly. Other advantages are discussed.