A Quantitative Assessment of the Risks from Illegally Imported Meat Contaminated with Foot and Mouth Disease Virus to Great Britain

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.     

技术引进与中国制造产业的边缘化风险

在经济全球化浪潮的推动下,中国日益成为承接国际制造业转移的重要区域,正向国际性的制造中心发展。然而,中国的制造产业由于科研创新能力的薄弱,以高生态成本为特征的资源型经济和低劳动力成本为特征的劳动密集型经济,作为其“比较优势”的发展模式,短期内虽能获得成功,但却潜伏着将被边缘化的风险。文章通过对中国制造产业中10多个行业在国际分工中的地位和产成品中的技术贡献率以及利润贡献率的数据调研,实证分析了边缘化产生的关键要素,剖析了边缘化的形成机理,并最终从产业和企业层面提出相应的对策建议。     

Mapping Invasive Species Risks with Stochastic Models: A Cross-Border United States-Canada Application for Sirex noctilio Fabricius

Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.     

Comparison of the Historic Recycling Risk for BSE in Three European Countries by Calculating the Basic Reproduction Ratio R0

A deterministic model of BSE transmission is used to calculate the R(0) values for specific years of the BSE epidemics in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands (NL), and Switzerland (CH). In all three countries, the R(0) values decreased below 1 after the introduction of a ban on feeding meat and bone meal (MBM) to ruminants around the 1990s. A variety of additional measures against BSE led to further decrease of R(0) to about 0.06 in the years around 1998. The calculated R(0) values were consistent with the observations made on the surveillance results for UK, but were partially conflicting with the surveillance results for NL and CH. There was evidence for a dependency of the BSE epidemic in NL and CH from an infection source not considered in the deterministic transmission model. Imports of MBM and feed components can be an explanation for this discrepancy, and the importance of imports for these observations is discussed.     

The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?

We provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation framework. Doing so, we can show a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but do not find evidence for significant short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries.     

The energy and mass balance of Los Angeles County

We conducted an urban “metabolic” study of inputs and outputs of food, water, energy, and pollutants from Los Angeles County, USA. This region has been the subject of recent debate about the nature of population density and distribution as it relates to urban form and associated environmental impacts. We found that with the exception of food imports and wastewater outputs, inputs of resources and outputs of pollutants generally declined on a per capita basis from 1990 to 2000. Reductions likely reflected a combination of changes in public policy, improvements in technology and public infrastructure, and impacts of increases in population density. However, in comparison to other municipalities and urban regions, resource consumption per capita was still relatively high in some categories, particularly inputs of water and transportation energy. Per capita greenhouse gas emissions were lower in Los Angeles County than for the average of the USA as a whole but higher than previous analyses of urban areas internationally, largely due to comparatively high emissions from the transportation sector. Wastewater discharge accounted for less than 40% of water inputs excluding precipitation; however the partitioning of water outputs through other potential losses, specifically evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater recharge, remains highly uncertain. We suggest that more detailed information about water losses will greatly improve future mass and energy accounting for analyses of urban environmental sustainability in this semi-arid region.     

论商标平行进口的负面影响及对策

商标平行进口是一个与知识产权有关的国际贸易问题 ,它涉及到知识产权的保持、知识产权交易、国际货物贸易、反不正当竞争等一系列问题。我国加入WTO后 ,面临着伴随国际贸易而来的越来越突出的商标平行进口问题。文章从商标平行进口的一般理论入手 ,分析商标平行进口的特征、其产生的经济动因及一系列负面效应 ,提出了一些解决商标平行进口问题的对策     

东部地区经济平稳增长路径下的最优财政收支规模分析

文章在经济增长理论的基础上,根据东部地区最终消费、固定资产投资、进出口总额和财政收支数据,运用计量经济学和最优化理论对东部地区经济平稳增长路径下的财政收支进行了经验研究。通过MATLAB计算可知,要实现东部地区经济的平稳增长,最终消费支出、固定资产投资和进出口总额分别为103930亿元、108800亿元和272360亿元,最优财政收入和财政支出规模为22247亿元和29030亿元。     

我国宏观经济乘数效应的实证分析

近年来,由于居民边际消费倾向急剧下降,我国宏观经济乘数效应几乎消失,投资对国民经济的推动作用越来越差。促进经济发展必须想方设法提高居民边际消费倾向,降低边际进口倾向和税费率。