Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary.  A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities.     

Statement of Withdrawal: Statistical analysis of an endemic disease from a capture–recapture experiment

There are a number of statistical techniques for analysing epidemic outbreaks. However, many diseases are endemic within populations and the analysis of such diseases are complicated by changing population demography. Motivated by the spread of cowpox among rodent populations, a combined mathematical model for population and disease dynamics is introduced. An MCMC algorithm is then constructed to make statistical inference for the model based on data being obtained from a capture–recapture experiment. The statistical analysis is used to identify the key elements in the spread of the cowpox virus.     

传播传染病行为的刑法评析--兼论传播传染病行为刑事立法

现行刑法没有规定"传播传染病罪",给目前SARS的防治带来一些法律上的障碍.最高人民法院、最高人民检察院于2003年5月15日颁布了<关于办理妨害预防、控制突发传染病疫情等灾害的刑事案件具体应用法律若干问题的解释[法释(2003)8号]>,其中第一条规定传播突发传染病病原体的,按照以危险方法危害公共安全罪定罪处罚.通过对现行刑法中危害公共卫生罪及"两高"司法解释的深入分析,认为应该在刑法中确立"传播传染病罪",并对该罪名的刑事立法问题提出了立法建议.     

鸡传染性鼻炎(IC)的诊断及防制

1999年 1～ 2月四川绵阳市江油河西镇十几户养鸡户的 2 5～ 4 0日龄肉鸡及其附近的长钢东山养殖场 1 50日龄蛋鸡先后出现以头部 (颜面及眼眶周围 )肿胀为特征的疾病 ,其死亡率不等。根据现场综合诊断 (流行病学、症状、尸体剖检 )和实验室检查 (细菌学检验 )诊断为传染性鼻炎 ,用链霉素、禽复康和恩诺沙星治疗以及用疫苗进行免疫接种 ,均取得了良好的效果     

妨害传染病防治罪的立法缺陷及其补救

对妨害传染病防治罪存在的立法问题作出评述,提出该罪的可罚范围有待拓宽、行为方式有待明确、与刑法其他罪名需要进一步衔接及统一、刑罚设置上有待进一步完善。     

Discovering Spatio-Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.     

传染病疫情"吹哨人"制度构建研究

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的暴发,凸显出构建传染病疫情“吹哨人”制度的迫切。构建该制度具有重要意义,有利于完善卫生防控法治体系,有利于传染病早期防控和保护吹哨人权利。构建制度应考虑吹哨人的道德风险、权利和义务,以及现有法律制度的衔接与协调,文章以此提出具体制度规则。     

Inference for Epidemics with Three Levels of Mixing: Methodology and Application to a Measles Outbreak

Abstract. A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings according to potentially different rates. For this model, we consider how different kinds of data can be used to estimate the infection rate parameters with a view to understanding what can and cannot be inferred. Among other things we find that temporal data can be of considerable inferential benefit compared with final size data, that the degree of heterogeneity in the data can have a considerable effect on inference for non‐household transmission, and that inferences can be materially different from those obtained from a model with only two levels of mixing. We illustrate our findings by analysing a highly detailed dataset concerning a measles outbreak in Hagelloch, Germany.     

Epidemic Potential of Measles and Rubella

Abstract

Although there have been major declines in the incidence of measles and rubella in the United States since licensure of vaccines, the incidence of disease in adolescents and young adults has not declined nearly as markedly as that in younger children. As a result, an increasing proportion of cases have occurred in adolescents and young adults. In 1978, 26% of all reported measles cases in which age was known occurred in those 15 years of age and older, and 76% reported rubella cases occurred in this age group. Outbreaks of both diseases have been reported from high schools, military bases, colleges, and universities. During a recent outbreak of measles involving a university, a 22-year-old university employee contracted measles and died of measles encephalitis. In addition to the direct effects of these diseases, the implications of the current pattern of occurrence of two infections known to have adverse effects on the developing fetus are obvious.

Improvements in immunization levels and declines in disease incidence have been brought about effectively by the enactment and enforcement of immunization requirements for school-age children and military recruits. Colleges and universities should also institute immunization requirements as a condition of enrollment.     

鸭传染性浆膜炎的诊断

本文就一起鸭传染性浆膜炎进行诊断 ,通过流行病学调查、临床症状、病理变化、细菌学检查总结为急性鸭传染性浆膜炎