Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Coalition for a Healthier Community: Lessons learned and implications for future work

The Coalition for a Healthier Community (CHC) initiative was implemented to improve the health and well-being of women and girls. Underpinning CHC is a gender-based focus that uses a network of community partners working collaboratively to generate relevant behavior change and improved health outcomes. Ten programs are trying to determine whether gender-focused system approaches are cost-effective ways to address health disparities in women and girls. Programs implemented through coalitions made up of academic institutions, public health departments, community-based organizations, and local, regional, and national organizations, are addressing health issues such as domestic violence, cardiovascular disease prevention, physical activity, and healthy eating. Although these programs are ongoing, they have made significant progress. Key factors contributing to their early success include a comprehensive needs assessment, robust coalitions, the diversity of populations targeted, programs based on findings of the needs assessments, evaluations taking into consideration the effect of gender, and strong academic–community partnerships. A noteworthy impact of these programs has been their ability to shape and impact public, social, and health policies at the state and local levels. However, there have been challenges associated with the implementation of such a complex program. Lessons learned are discussed in this paper.     

论共同体观念的语词生成与理论建构

本文运用发生学的方法，揭示共同体观念的语词生成和共同体思想的理论建构。第一部分，作者指出，共同体这个语词在西方语言中源于共善和公共，具有丰富的内涵。第二部分，作者指出，共同体是古希腊罗马哲学和政治学的重要概念，在哲学形上学和伦理学的语境下，共同体与共善的关系密不可分;而在政治学的语境下，共同体是公共的名词化和实体化，共善则是建构人类社会的纲领和目标。把善提升为至善是一条哲学伦理学的理论建构通道，而把善提升为共善，则是哲学政治学的通道，与哲学伦理学的理论建构通道并行不悖。第三部分，作者指出，奥古斯丁批判地吸取了柏拉图和西塞罗的相关思想，然后以公义为纲，建构了他的理想共同体———上帝之城。奥古斯丁对共善的探究，直接导致对理想共同体的理论建构。他的理想共同体以信仰为核心，以伦理为共同体成员的守则，以秩序与和谐为共同体的特色，以普爱为共同体生存与发展的动力。     

Decision‐making under uncertainty in child protection: Creating a just and learning culture

The argument is made for having a positive error culture in child protection to improve decision‐making and risk management. This requires organizations to accept that mistakes are likely and to treat them as opportunities for learning and improving. In contrast, in many organizations, a punitive reaction to errors leads to workers hiding them and developing a defensive approach to their practice with children and families. The safety management literature has shown how human error is generally not simply due to a “bad apple” but made more or less likely by the work context that helps or hinders good performance. Improving safety requires learning about the weaknesses in the organization that contribute to poor performance. To create a learning culture, people need to feel that when they talk about mistakes or weak practice, there will be a constructive response from their organization. One aspect of reducing the blame culture is to develop a shared understanding of how practice will be judged and how those appraising practice will avoid the hindsight bias. To facilitate a positive error culture, a set of risk principles are presented that offer a set of criteria by which practice should be appraised.     

论人类命运共同体的“真、善、美”

人类命运共同体是“真”思想,它在继承马克思主义对“共同体”科学分析论述的基础上,结合当今世界发展的总体趋势不断探索、不断实践、不断发展并取得了显著成效。人类命运共同体是“和”“善”的思想,因为它充分汲取了中华文明的优秀基因,将中国传统文化中“和”与“善”的思想推向全世界。人类命运共同体是美丽的思想,因为它不仅准确把握了时代的主题,力求构建美丽新世界,还将全人类对美好生活的向往转变为现实的动力。构建人类命运共同体是马克思主义在21世纪焕发强大活力的显著象征,是中国优秀传统文化中和平思想的集中体现,是贡献给世界的中国智慧和中国方案。     

民族记忆与文化基因--瑶族民族记忆中“中华民族共同体”文化基因的表征及其价值阐释

民族记忆既是传承民族文化基因的载体,也是彰显民族文化基因的重要文化表征。民族记忆作为延续民族历史和文化基因的内在根基,通过传承民族历史文化、建构民族身份、塑造民族形象等形式传承和彰显民族文化基因的内在特征。以瑶族为代表的少数民族文化基因是中华民族文化基因的重要组成部分,深入挖掘瑶族民族记忆中蕴含的“中华民族共同体”文化基因,并阐释其内在的价值与意义,对培育和铸牢我国各民族的“中华民族共同体”意识有着重要的理论价值与现实意义。     

Comprehensive neighbourhood mapping: developing a powerful tool for child protection

This paper proposes ‘comprehensive neighbourhood mapping’ as a schema for gathering and interpreting information within a given geographical area which is informed by imaginative thinking about the safety of children and young people from sexual crime. It would build upon current forms of profiling by local authorities, health authorities and central Government. CNM would actively involve local people, in partnership with agencies, in ‘mapping’ danger points and support points. Eight components are discussed, including environmental issues, locations of sex offenders, sites where teenagers meet and share information, supportive individuals and organizations. Some issues for pilot projects are discussed, including the need to set up planning and implementation groups and to integrate CNM into wider child protection and community safety strategies. CNM is grounded in an ecological perspective which sees partnership approaches as essential and believes an overarching view of neighbourhood needs, based on detailed local information and understanding of how different forms of harm interconnect, is crucial in developing child protection strategies. At times of acute official anxiety about community ‘lynch‐mob’ reactions to known paedophiles, CNM aims to build communities which instead are informed and thoughtful about child protection. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The University: An Agent of Social Change?

Can universities be agents of progressive social change? How would we know if a university was acting as an agent of social change? Drawing on four case studies, I raise a number of questions to problematize our understanding of the university as an agent of social change. I outline a number of contributing factors that appear to explain successful cases. I conclude by arguing the relevancy of these cases for larger, and more traditional, sociological projects.     

Challenges to Connecting Sociology and Service Learning

Service-learning programs are not free from challenges brought about by lack of financial support, lack of widespread commitment from professors, community agencies, and recipients of service, and lack of knowledge and insight in students directly involved in such programs. While service-learning initiatives and programs serve positive functions for organizations and individuals, rhetorical accolades for service learning can distort or omit the realities of program implementation and sustained delivery. This paper specifically explores the following challenges connected to service-learning programs: (1) pedagogical difficulties; (2) student limitations; (3) time constraints; and (4) community cooperation.     

A review of the epidentiological research on child sexual abuse. Community and college student samples

This article is the first of two consecutive reviews on the major empirical studies which have been carried out in an attempt to estimate the prevalence of child sexual abuse among females. The research is structured in terms of three sample categories: (a) probability and non-probability samples of the general population; (b) college student samples; and (c) clinical inpatient and outpatient samples. This part of the review deals with (a) and (b) and highlights a number of unresolved methodological issues which may contribute to the variance in reported prevalence rates. These include a myriad of definitions of child sexual abuse and different methods of eliciting information on possible histories of abuse. Despite these problems. taken as a whole the prevalence studies indicate the significant numbers of people who have experienced abuse and who are willing to disclose aspects of these abusive experiences.