Bayesian modelling of catch in a north-west Atlantic fishery

Summary. We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used and the mesh size of the nets) are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log-catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to the prediction of catches for single and aggregated ships.     

论休闲产业的社会功能

休闲产业是以旅游业、娱乐业、服务业、体育产业和文化产业为龙头的经济形态和产业系统,休闲产业是发达国家的主导产业,而近年来我国休闲产业也得到较快的发展。从消费需求的多元化角度分析了休闲产业的社会功能,指出休闲产业对于满足人的享受和发展需要,实现生产力的再创造,提升国民生存质量,促进经济社会进步,以及文化传承,都具有不可替代的作用。     

论休闲与社会进步

在物质文明飞速发展的今天,高度文明的精神生活已成为人们追求的目标。人逐渐学会一种使人真正成为人的生活方式,这便是休闲。休闲是人类文明发展和“以人为本”的体现,也是社会进步的需要。     

长歌当哭，寓悲于闲——晚唐送人赴任诗情感探微

送人赴任之作,在唐代别离诗中占有相当大比例.盛唐人的这类诗歌,往往忽略了别离之伤情.反之,晚唐却固囿于这一伤情,并将此进一步深化,深化的结果,就是诗歌中闲情的泛滥.这不是偶然的,而是晚唐文人大范围接受佛道思想的必然结果.     

论休闲产业发展与社会的全面进步

随着我国全面建设小康社会目标的实施,休闲产业也因得到需求方面的拉动将进入快速发展时期。本文论述了休闲产业的内涵与特征,研究了休闲产业发展对社会发展的推动作用。     

Compatibility,Leisure, and Satisfaction in Marital Relationships

This study challenges the prevailing view that marital companionship promotes marital satisfaction. By following a cohort of married couples for over a decade and by incorporating several methodological improvements—such as refining the measurement of marital satisfaction, determining how much spouses enjoy doing the leisure activities they pursue together and apart, and using diary data to portray marital leisure patterns—we found that the association between companionship and satisfaction is less robust than previously believed, and that it depends on how often spouses pursue activities that reflect their own and their partner's leisure preferences. Over time, involvement in leisure liked by husbands but disliked by wives, whether as a couple or by husbands alone, is both a cause and a consequence of wives' dissatisfaction.     

运用AHP法分析我国海洋水产业发展方向与重点

二十一世纪是海洋开发的世纪,我国的海洋产业仍是以水产业占主导地位,可以说水产业的发展对我国海洋经济以及整个国民经济的发展起着重要的作用。我国已经加入WTO,这对我国海洋水产业将产生重大的影响,本文运用AHP(层次分析)法,提出我国海洋水产业的发展方向和重点,以实现我国海洋水产业可持续发展     

试论晚年白居易的自足、闲适思想

源于老庄思想的自足、闲适心态 ,是晚年白居易之所以能在洛阳实现身心自然合一的“中隐”生活的心理基础。因为自足 ,才会身心闲适 ,适又以闲为前提条件。其闲适诗中失落了表现社会责任的儒家精神。     

The Human Right to Leisure in Old Age: Reinforcement of the Rights of an Aging Population

The right to leisure is recognized as a human right under the 1948 United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The actual meaning and material content of this human right is subject to debate. The aim of this study is to examine the extent and the context to which this human right is specifically recognized with regard to older persons. Methodologically, this study textually analyzed 17 different international older persons’ human rights documents. The findings reveal that in the majority of these documents there is no reference to the right to leisure. In the remaining documents, the right to leisure is mostly referred to indirectly or in a narrow legal construction. These findings support the notion that despite the growing body of knowledge regarding the importance of meaningful leisure in old age—and its empowering and anti-ageist nature—this knowledge has not transformed into a legal human rights discourse.     

清末社会维护领海渔业权活动考察

自20世纪初年开始，列强觊觎中国沿海渔业资源，在中国近海侵渔，侵害了中国领海渔业权，这引起了中国社会的关注。在反对外人侵渔的过程中，清末中国社会催生了领海渔业权意识。当时日本对华侵渔最明显，引起中国朝野抗议。除日本对华侵渔外，德国亦在胶州湾租借地开设渔业公司。这引起了部分中国人的警觉。为抵制外人侵渔，在张謇等人倡导下，清末中国社会兴起创办新式渔业公司的热潮。这对中国领海观念的形成具有重要影响，促使部分官员形成比较明确的领海渔业权观念。之后不久，张謇等人又在商部积极支持下参加了意大利米兰渔业赛会，试图向世界展示中国渔业界自保利权、维护海权的形象。尽管未能真正有效维护海权，但当时中国社会维护渔业权的努力仍值得肯定。