黑龙江（汉族）民歌衍变过程探析——对黑龙江、河北（汉族）民歌的比较

黑龙江汉族民歌的衍变历经了数百年的岁月沧桑，它与民族迁徙、人口变迁以及文化传统等存在着极为密切的联系。通过对黑龙江民歌与河北、山东、河南、山西民歌进行比较，表明黑龙江民歌与河北民歌之间存在着较近的亲缘关系。因此，文章试图在对较有代表性的几首黑龙江与河北民歌比较研究的基础上进一步探究黑龙江民歌衍变的影响因素。     

三维运动混合机的性能及其影响因素

通过混合试验对三维运动混合机的混合性能及其影响因素作了分析与研究．     

农户参与流通型专业协会意愿的影响因素分析 ———基于陕西5 个苹果基地县21 个村农户调查数据的分析

利用陕西5个国家级苹果基地县450户苹果种植户的调查数据，采用Logit模型对农户参与流通型专业协会意愿的影响因素进行计量分析。研究发现：农户苹果收入占家庭总收入的比重，是否通过协会销售过苹果，获取市场信息的渠道是否多样，公司到本地收购次数，本村是否是公司基地村与农户参与流通型专业协会的意愿存在正相关关系；而农户苹果销售顺畅情况，本村是否存在果农协会与农户参与流通型专业协会的意愿存在负相关关系。此外，农户参与流通型专业协会的意愿存在明显的地区差异。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

“He Survives Everything”: A Latency-Aged Child with Play Disruption in the Face of Trauma and Early Object Loss

It is hypothesized that trauma and early object loss result in the arrest of the normal and healthy progression of a child's development and also disrupts a child's capacity to engage in symbolic play. In therapy, over time, with a constant object, a latency-aged child was able to re-enact early trauma and loss, make substantial gains in development, and begin to play in a symbolic and expressive way.     

论公共政策执行变异的成因与对策

公共政策执行在政策过程中具有十分重要的意义。然而由于多方面的原因,当前政策执行中出现了诸多变异行为,严重影响了公共政策目标的实现。因此,必须积极采取措施,治理公共政策执行中的变异行为。     

失业者再就业行为差异分析

笔者通过对东北老工业城市--长春市失业人员进行实地调查,运用均值分析、因子分析等方法,对失业者再就业行为的差异进行辨别,发现对有再就业意愿的失业者而言,搜寻工作的思想观念与方式、失业期间的活动能力、失业者的心态、当地公共就业服务质量都是导致失业者再就业行为产生差异的主要因素.由此笔者分析了影响失业者再就业行为的内在机制,探讨激励失业者积极再就业的措施,以期为完善我国公共就业服务体系提供政策建议.     

Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

论要素资本理论中的技术、信息和知识

随着知识经济、信息经济时代的到来和现代技术的迅猛发展，知识、信息和技术已经成为现代企业必不可少的资源。在财务上，作为生产要素的技术，就是生产过程中的技能、技巧和技艺，以及其术用载体。信息是社会和自然系统的组织有序化与生产过程相关性发生变化及其后果的信号讯息。人们愿意支付一定的成本获取信息，在于信息具有很高的收益性。知识则是经过证实了的真的信念。经济知识的基础范畴是知识产权。财务学上的知识是具有知识产权的知识。新生产要素的竞争是企业竞争力的核心内容。要素资本理论的形成为公司财务理论研究指出了新的方向。     

论企业的联合产权制度性质

企业是一个以资源、能力与知识为基础的由要素所有者联合与劳动所有者联合相结合以创造、控制、分配 合作剩余的专业化生产性组织。联合产权制度是现代企业制度的普遍形式,也是现代企业制度的根本性质。