A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

“Who generates this city”? Socialist strategy in contemporary London

This essay, based on a “militant ethnography” of the attempts of the small radical grassroots activist group, Our London (a pseudonym), to mobilize a collective oppositional politics through activities around an election campaign, engages critically with E. Laclau and C. Mouffe's arguments on discourse and collectivity in Hegemony and Socialist Strategy (London: Verso, 1985). I argue, on the basis of my findings, that while their model does provide insights that help describe the process of building collectivity from among disparate perspectives and identities, we need to go beyond a focus on discourse alone and consider the ways politics is shaped by material contexts. This is necessary if we are to understand the continued appeal of class politics as well as the difficulties in mobilizing collectivity in highly unequal and fragmented cities. From an activist perspective, the essay also highlights how developing a conception of collective interests and a critique of overarching systems of exploitation can be important in building political unity.     

从WTO规则析我国农业国内支持制度的完善

WTO相关协议允许各国采用一定的农业国内支持措施，尤其是《农产品协定》的绿箱条款更指明了农业国内支持的方向。我国在入世协议中也对农业国内支持作了承诺。为此，要发展农业，应在遵守上述WTO规则的基础上逐步完善我国现行的农业国内支持制度。     

社会支持在灾后心理危机干预中的作用

心理危机干预通过及时控制和减缓灾难的心理社会影响,促进了受灾者心理健康的重建。然而,当前我国灾区的心理干预工作存在着将心理危机干预与社会支持相混淆又相脱离的背反现象。调查和事实证实,只有实现二者的互动尤其是充分发挥社会支持系统的作用,才能够既促进灾后心理危机干预的专业性功能提升,又进一步增强实务工作的科学性和有效性。     

全力支持河套大学人才培养水平评估 构建巴彦淖尔完善的国民教育体系

10月份,教育部将组织专家组对河套大学进行人才培养工作水平评估,对河套大学而言,这既是机遇也是挑战。经过21年的发展,河套大学取得了可喜的成绩。通过这次评估,河套大学要理清思路、深化改革,认真整改,迈向新高。教育行政部门大力支持对河套大学人才培养水平评估,支持河套大学的发展。     

Social Support Interventions in Migrant Populations

The phenomenon of immigration has led to an important increasein the number of social programmes and services for migrantpopulations in many European countries. However, some investigationshave shown that the use of formal resources is extremely lowin these groups. In contrast to the limited utilization of programmesand services, research in the field of social psychology hasrevealed that the primary source of help and support for immigrantsis their own informal social network. After analysing the characteristics,advantages and limitations of formal and informal support systems,this paper presents a typology of social support interventionswith migrant populations that integrates both types of support.Four levels are differentiated: dyadic interventions, socialnetwork interventions, mutual aid groups and community interventions.The development of programmes to strengthen the informal supportsystem is emphasized as an alternative to integrating formaland informal resources in social work practice with migrantpopulations.     

全面建设小康社会中环境法制创新的理论概析

生态环境问题是我国现代化建设过程中必须解决的基本问题,走可持续发展道路是实现全面小康目标的必然选择,建立以可持续发展观为指导的环境法治系统是全面建设小康社会的重要保障.可持续发展理念对环境法制的基础理论和实践都会产生深远的影响.在建设小康社会新形势下,环境法制创新的目标领域涉及立法基本原则与调整理念更新、立法体系重构、基本对策及管理机制完善等诸方面.     

综合实践活动课程实施的问题与对策

教师的课程理论素养较差,与综合实践活动课程实施的要求不相适应;综合实践活动课程的实施缺乏相关的制度保障和社会支持,是综合实践活动课程实施中存在的主要问题.解决问题的对策是:加强对教师的培训,提高教师实施综合实践活动课程的能力;完善学校相关教研、培训及管理等制度,为综合实践活动课程的实施提供制度保障;建立良好的社会支持和保障系统,充分利用各种资源,为综合实践活动课程的实施创造更好的条件.     

Fuzzy K-means clustering models for triangular fuzzy time trajectories

We focus our attention on the classification of fuzzy time trajectories with triangular membership function, described by a given set of individuals. To this purpose, we adopt a fullyinformational approach, explicitly recognizing the informational nature shared by the ingredients of the classification procedure: the observed data (Empirical Information) and the classification model (Theoretical Information). In particular, by supposing that the informational paradigm has a fuzzy nature, we suggest three fuzzy clustering models allowing the classification of the triangular fuzzy time trajectories, based on the analysis of the cross sectional and/or longitudinal characteristics of their components (centers and spreads). Two applicative examples are illustrated.     

信息不对称与中小企业信贷支持——兼析中小企业信贷市场中的政府作用

通过建立一个银行对中小企业信贷的博弈模型 ,说明当市场上低风险企业过少 ,高风险企业过多时 ,银行不能通过贷款收益收回自己的风险类型鉴别成本。在不可能提高投资项目自有资本比例 ,而利率放开有待时日 ,极易加剧道德风险的情况下 ,银行无法改善其收益小于成本的处境。因此 ,从中小企业信贷市场退出是银行的最优选择。最终指出 ,为了促进中小企业的发展 ,建立一个由国家提供部分担保、商业性银行发放贷款的中小企业信贷体系对支持中小企业发展、健全完善的金融体系是可能的 ,也是必要的。