A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

Kernel Estimation of Rate Function for Recurrent Event Data

Abstract.  Recurrent event data are largely characterized by the rate function but smoothing techniques for estimating the rate function have never been rigorously developed or studied in statistical literature. This paper considers the moment and least squares methods for estimating the rate function from recurrent event data. With an independent censoring assumption on the recurrent event process, we study statistical properties of the proposed estimators and propose bootstrap procedures for the bandwidth selection and for the approximation of confidence intervals in the estimation of the occurrence rate function. It is identified that the moment method without resmoothing via a smaller bandwidth will produce a curve with nicks occurring at the censoring times, whereas there is no such problem with the least squares method. Furthermore, the asymptotic variance of the least squares estimator is shown to be smaller under regularity conditions. However, in the implementation of the bootstrap procedures, the moment method is computationally more efficient than the least squares method because the former approach uses condensed bootstrap data. The performance of the proposed procedures is studied through Monte Carlo simulations and an epidemiological example on intravenous drug users.     

国内报纸应天天发社论之我见

国内报纸天天发社论以同国际报章接轨，也绝不会改变其为党和人民之喉舌的性质。然而，建国50年来至今，本应舆论先行，此项接轨却反倒滞后了。必须正本清源，还社论天天见报的本来面目，期待更多的报纸在《北京青年报》每日社评的形式上能“青出于蓝而胜于蓝”。     

或有事项对企业财务能力影响的分析--兼谈会计中的不确定性

阐述了或有事项引起的财务报表变动 ,建立了一套财务指标 ,分析了或有事项对企业财务能力的影响 ,并指出在不确定性会计处理中应注意的几个问题     

论校报独特的思想政治教育优势

高校校报在进行大学生思想政治教育方面具有独特的优势，面对日益变化的国际国内形势，高校校报要充分发挥校报自身的特点和优势，进一步推动高校思想政治教育工作的发展，需要从以下几方面努力：一是加强工作制度和工作机制建设；二是扬长避短出精品；三是与时俱进拓展功能。     

蒙古族大德咱雅班智达事迹考述

清初,在祖国统一的大业中,各民族的爱国志士都曾为此做出了贡献,蒙古族高僧大德咱雅班智达.南喀嘉措便是在西藏地方归顺清朝中央,实现祖国统一过程中做出过重要贡献的人物之一。鉴于其在历史发展过程中的重要贡献,当时西藏上层以他为首世,建立了“咱雅班智达“转世系统,从此,它成为藏传佛教在蒙古族地区颇具影响的活佛世系之一。     

汉口租界的报刊与传播控制

近代汉口新闻事业之发端与繁荣,与租界及租界特殊的传播环境有密切关系。开埠以来,外侨与国人在汉口的五国租界里创办了近百种报刊。租界内的新闻传播受到多方面控制:汉口租界当局的基本章程中有关于新闻传播管理的条例;满清与北洋政府从多方面对租界内的报刊进行钳制;军阀势力与帝国主义列强亦常插手干涉。与上海租界相较,汉口租界的媒介与传播环境仍有自己的特色。     

对河北省报业发展的思考

改革开放20余年来,我国报业市场沧桑巨变。在报业资源的大规模重组,竞争从无序到有序,从质量竞争到品牌竞争,面临广播、电视、网络挑战的背景下,对河北报业从宏观和微观两个方面的内容做了一些分析,提出要重视资本运营,实行多元化,塑造品牌,开展数字化,重视人才的引进和培养,充分开发广告市场等发展策略。     

湖南报业资源配置现状与问题分析

以对湖南报业资源配置现状的调查为基础 ,从人力资源、媒体资源、信息资源、广告资源、受众资源等五个方面展开分析 ,探讨了湖南报业资源配置存在的主要问题 ,旨在为湖南报业资源的优化配置和湖南报业的发展提供借鉴。     

重评王韬的新闻思想

从三个方面论述了王韬的新闻思想 :广见闻求通变的报刊功能观 ;论时事抒胸臆的报刊政论观 ;有道德通古今的新闻人才观。这些理论在中国人办报之初 ,提高了人们对报纸作用的认识 ,开创了中国新闻界“文人论政”的优良传统 ,促进了新闻从业人员对自身道德和才能的修养 ,在中国新闻学术史上具有重要的地位和深远的影响。