Towards Uniformly Efficient Trend Estimation Under Weak/Strong Correlation and Non‐stationary Volatility

In this paper, we consider the deterministic trend model where the error process is allowed to be weakly or strongly correlated and subject to non‐stationary volatility. Extant estimators of the trend coefficient are analysed. We find that under heteroskedasticity, the Cochrane–Orcutt‐type estimator (with some initial condition) could be less efficient than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) when the process is highly persistent, whereas it is asymptotically equivalent to OLS when the process is less persistent. An efficient non‐parametrically weighted Cochrane–Orcutt‐type estimator is then proposed. The efficiency is uniform over weak or strong serial correlation and non‐stationary volatility of unknown form. The feasible estimator relies on non‐parametric estimation of the volatility function, and the asymptotic theory is provided. We use the data‐dependent smoothing bandwidth that can automatically adjust for the strength of non‐stationarity in volatilities. The implementation does not require pretesting persistence of the process or specification of non‐stationary volatility. Finite‐sample evaluation via simulations and an empirical application demonstrates the good performance of proposed estimators.     

Statistical testing strategies for assessing treatment efficacy and marker accuracy in phase III trials

When a candidate predictive marker is available, but evidence on its predictive ability is not sufficiently reliable, all‐comers trials with marker stratification are frequently conducted. We propose a framework for planning and evaluating prospective testing strategies in confirmatory, phase III marker‐stratified clinical trials based on a natural assumption on heterogeneity of treatment effects across marker‐defined subpopulations, where weak rather than strong control is permitted for multiple population tests. For phase III marker‐stratified trials, it is expected that treatment efficacy is established in a particular patient population, possibly in a marker‐defined subpopulation, and that the marker accuracy is assessed when the marker is used to restrict the indication or labelling of the treatment to a marker‐based subpopulation, ie, assessment of the clinical validity of the marker. In this paper, we develop statistical testing strategies based on criteria that are explicitly designated to the marker assessment, including those examining treatment effects in marker‐negative patients. As existing and developed statistical testing strategies can assert treatment efficacy for either the overall patient population or the marker‐positive subpopulation, we also develop criteria for evaluating the operating characteristics of the statistical testing strategies based on the probabilities of asserting treatment efficacy across marker subpopulations. Numerical evaluations to compare the statistical testing strategies based on the developed criteria are provided.     

地方政府重大决策机制存在问题及优化路径

地方政府作为地方公共事务管理者，决策正确与否直接关系到公共管理活动的成败，并且在一定程度上影响地方经济发展的水平及其核心竞争力。由于我国地方政府现阶段决策主体多元性及其职能模糊性，一些重大决策失误现象屡屡发生，造成了有限资源的巨大浪费，严重影响了地方政府在人民群众中的威信和形象。对此，我国地方政府迫切需要优化重大决策机制，包括明晰体制内外决策主体的职能、第三方评估、公众参与、决策终身责任追究及倒查机制等，以推进地方政府决策的民主化、科学化和法治化。     

改革所有制结构 促进山西产业结构调整

公有制经济比例过大 ,非公有制经济比例过小是山西所有制结构存在的主要问题 ,它对山西产业结构的调整有着一定的制约作用。发展非公有制经济 ,适度压缩国有经济比例 ,是促进山西产业结构调整的重要举措之一。     

英语习语中的非言语交际表达

从跨文化交际的角度对英语习语中的非言语交际行为及其特征进行探讨研究,认为英语习语在非言语交际中具有民族性和修辞性的特征,通过身体动作、面部表情、颜色、服装容饰等非言语行为的表达,强调和加强了言语内容,使得习语更加形象、生动、传神。     

小波分析在管理数据处理中的应用

提出了一种基于小波变换的管理数据处理方法，把公司管理上的数据看成一个非平稳的时间序列，利用小渡函数将该时间序列分解到不同的频率通道上，然后将分解后的信号当作近似的平稳时间序列，用一些传统的统计方法进行预测，同时对中国足球彩票若干期的销售量数据进行了处理和预测，并将结果与实际销量以及用传统的AR模型的预测值进行了比较。     

从WTO规则析我国农业国内支持制度的完善

WTO相关协议允许各国采用一定的农业国内支持措施，尤其是《农产品协定》的绿箱条款更指明了农业国内支持的方向。我国在入世协议中也对农业国内支持作了承诺。为此，要发展农业，应在遵守上述WTO规则的基础上逐步完善我国现行的农业国内支持制度。     

大学英语作文非语法错误分析及纠错策略

通过深入分析非英语专业大学生英语作文中出现的内容、篇章结构、语言表达等方面的非语法错误,提出了写前阶段构思、审题技巧训练及寓写作于精读课教学等相应的纠错策略。     

关于新时期高校中层干部素质要求的思考

高等教育事业的快速发展,对高校中层干部提出了较高的素质要求。按照“三个代表” 的要求,以德为本,理念先行,协调为上,守土有责,应当是新时期高校中层干部的基本素质要求。     

东汉末年的“求真”思潮

东汉末年社会上产生了一股强大的“求真”思潮,在理想与现实、真理与谬误、虚妄与真实等多方面的矛盾与对立中寻找出路,构成了东汉思想的主要趋向。“求真”思潮的产生有多方面的原因,同时其表现形式也是多方面的,其产生的后果也是多方面的,其中之一就是儒家思想自身的修正与道家思想的兴起。