Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

People with disability and new disaster communications: access and the social media mash-up

This article explores how a lack of access to increasingly complex and overlapping digital communications platforms in times of disaster for people with disabilities has the potential to make already life-threatening situations considerably more dangerous. As we are increasingly coming to rely on a social media mash-up of digital platforms to assist in communications during disaster situations, the issue of accessibility for people with disabilities is as dire as if it was high ground during a tsunami or transport during a typhoon. The contemporary social media environment is characterised by a complex and overlapping network of complementary platforms, populated by user-generated content, where people communicate and exchange ideas. In this environment, YouTube videos are posted to Facebook and embedded in blogs, and Twitter is used to link to these other sites and is itself embedded in other platforms. These networks are increasingly supplementing and supplanting more traditional communication platforms, such as the television and radio, particularly in times of disaster. The concern of this paper is that the elements from which this mash-up of communications channels is made are not always accessible to people with disabilities. This evolving network of social media-based communication exposes the limits of existing Internet-based universal design.     

构建立足“3R”的矿难治理预防管理体系

对劳动力载体的保护是劳动和社会保障的指向之一。面对矿难对劳动者生存权的侵蚀,加强矿难治理的准备工作,就成了生命对社会的合理诉求。这其中对劳动者生存权的尊重,也是构建和谐社会的应有之义。     

论汉画中的妇女形象

汉代画像石 (砖 )有大量的表现汉代妇女生活的画像 ,主要有神话传说中的妇女形象、贵族妇女形象、劳动妇女形象、历史故事中的妇女形象、侍女形象、乐舞百戏中的艺伎形象六种类型 ,在不同程度上反映了汉代妇女在社会生活、生产中的地位。     

从“知识考古”到“美学解救”——论现代“人”的福柯式解构

笛卡尔以来，主体问题始终是现代哲学最为核心的问题。但是，从哲学的语言论转向开始，主体已经声名狼藉，主体哲学的范式被视为陈腐过时了，传统的主体之争已经没有意义，无论语言是第一位，或者自我意识的个体优先，这两个范式中的任何一个都凸现和遮蔽着什么，将这两者联系起来或者寻找一种介于这两种范式之间的思路倒是可能的，如米歇尔福柯之路。     

侵权诉讼的膨胀及对策

侵权纠纷是民事诉讼机制解决的主要对象。随着社会的发展,侵权案件逐渐增多,过量的侵权诉讼会带来很多不良后果,不仅是对法律制度本身的损害,更对经济发展产生严重的负面影响。要解决侵权诉讼的膨胀问题,必须找到控制侵权诉讼的正确途径。     

日本都道府县防灾无线网的建设及借鉴

日本是世界上灾害管理通信系统建设领先的国家,相关经验对我国灾害管理通信系统的建设有着重要的借鉴意义。都道府县防灾无线网是日本灾害管理通信系统的重要组成部分,已具备了较为成熟的建设模式和应用经验。本文介绍了日本灾害管理通信系统的框架、都道府县防灾无线网的体系架构及其通信系统组成,选择了神奈川县、长野县和三重县作为典型案例,对这三个县的防灾无线网的建设和应用情况作了分析,并借鉴日本的经验,结合我国的实际,提出了五个方面的建设建议。     

关于大都市灾害管理之研究——以日本大都市灾害管理为中心

本文以日本政府及东京等大城市灾害管理政策、行政体制及实例为对象,分析研究了大城市在自然灾害管理中所应注意的问题和经验教训,为大城市的灾害管理提供借鉴.     

我国民办高等教育中介组织的构建

发展教育中介组织是促进民办高等教育的新课题.但在现实中,教育中介组织在数量、服务质量、独立性以及操作上等等存在明显的不足.因此,需要从法律、民办高校、中介组织本身建设等方面着手,构建适合我国国情的民办高等教育中介组织.     

政府职能转变与经济领域社会中介组织的关系

我国现行的政府职能是伴随着计划经济体制而建立起来的,加入WTO后,必须进一步推进政府管理体制改革和机构改革,按照发展市场经济的要求转变政府职能,建立社会主义市场经济体制,否则,将很难适应经济全球化的发展趋势。经济领域社会中介组织是伴随着市场经济的发展而成长起来的,政府职能转变必然有力促进经济领域社会中介组织的发展,而此类中介组织的良性发展又会进一步完善市场经济的运行机制,保证政府职能转变的顺利进行。