从主权国家的兴衰看权力博弈形态的转型

传统的国际关系理论,无论是现实主义、自由主义、建构主义还是科学行为主义理论,都是把主权国家抽象成一个统一的国际关系行为体。这一行为主体有一致的利益,也自然要有一致的对外政策目标和手段。在20世纪,尤其是在两次世界大战和冷战期间,这一概念抽象是非常准确的。但冷战结束以后,尤其是进入21世纪以后,这一概念抽象逐渐与国际关系的现实相违背。一方面,国家综合实力并不能直接转化为具体领域的竞争优势;另一方面,很多国家,包括超级大国在内,其对外政策的主要阻力可能不是所谓的竞争对手,而是其国内不同的利益集团。这导致传统的国际关系理论,从假设到概念和推理层面,都已经无法解释和预测今天的世界,而权力小博弈理论可以为认识多元复杂互动博弈时代的国际关系提供一个新的解释框架。     

Social work students' conception on roles within the family in Greece

The present article is based on a small-scale research that took place with third-year students in the department of social work at Technological Educational Institute of Patras. During class the students, who undertake the laboratory course ‘Social Work with Families’, were asked to discuss family roles and depict them on drawings. Analysing their drawings in a qualitative approach the findings suggest that students adopt traditional views on family issues and the family roles. Various gender stereotypes and prejudices were reflected in students' drawings and this is alarming for both social work education and practice.     

A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

Who Should Pay for Interdependent Risk? Policy Implications for Security Interdependence Among Airports

We study interdependent risks in security, and shed light on the economic and policy implications of increasing security interdependence in presence of reactive attackers. We investigate the impact of potential public policy arrangements on the security of a group of interdependent organizations, namely, airports. Focusing on security expenditures and costs to society, as assessed by a social planner, to individual airports and to attackers, we first develop a game-theoretic framework, and derive explicit Nash equilibrium and socially optimal solutions in the airports network. We then conduct numerical experiments mirroring real-world cyber scenarios, to assess how a change in interdependence impact the airports' security expenditures, the overall expected costs to society, and the fairness of security financing. Our study provides insights on the economic and policy implications for the United States, Europe, and Asia.     

进化论思潮与唯物史观的传播——近代中国两大思想关系刍议

进化论思想与唯物史观同为近代中国影响广泛的思想。二者的传入时间接近，并且都经历了中国化的过程。随着进化论思想在现代遭到了越来越多的批判和质疑，唯物史观早期传播和发展的历程也经历了重新的审视。文章从近代思想史发展的事实出发，重新厘清两种思想的关系，并具体论证马克思的唯物史观能否从广义上归结为一种进化论的思想，以及进化论思想在中国是否经历了一个向唯物史观转变的历程。     

君主专制与政治抵制:早期现代英国法律语境中的《复仇者悲剧》

英国自都铎王朝后期至斯图亚特早期，立宪君主论或混合君主论者抵制君权神授论，坚持家庭是一个自治的、涉及臣民私人权益的小政府，受到自然法、古代宪法或神圣法的保护。《复仇者悲剧》中公爵王室言行映射詹姆士一世在《皇家礼物》中所宣扬的君权神授论，温迪斯兄弟俩及追随者的复仇隐含当时的政治抵制学说，公爵王室与温迪斯兄弟俩的对立象征君权神授论与普通法理论的对峙。温迪斯兄弟俩却以威胁新君为由被处死，司法斗争简约为复仇冲动，维权英雄陡变为暴徒，暴君化身为明君，这暴露出君权神授论的悖论性和剧作家含混的复仇伦理。     

Restricted minimax estimation in semiparametric linear models

Abstract

In this article we develop the minimax estimation approach of general linear models to the semiparametric linear models when the parameters are simultaneously constrained by an ellipsoid and linear restrictions. Combining sample information and prior constraints the minimax estimator is obtained and compared with partially least square estimator by theoretical and simulation methods.     

论数字货币的私法性质——以日本Bitcoin.Cafe数字货币交易所破产案为中心

数字货币，是一种具有财产性价值属性的电磁记录型数据。数字货币在其依存的区块链体系中所彰显的与不特定者之间的支付对价性、与法定货币之间的互换性、使用电子信息处理系统进行转移的在线转移性等特点，得以从数据说的角度，将其作为一种数据性财产权在现行法律框架内对其私法性质进行讨论。有鉴于我国民法总则已将数据纳入保护客体的范畴，数字货币作为数据之一种，理应成为一种新型法律客体，在得到法律理论支撑的基础上获得保护。     

相互保险的风险识别及创新解决方案——基于TRIZ和TIF理论

相互保险是保险组织形态中非常重要的一种,但是由于信息不对称,相对于其他保险模式而言,同样存在着逆向选择和道德风险问题。传统的监管模式下,监管渗透不够,反制力不强,导致了相互保险无法彻底解决逆向选择和道德风险的治理困境。本文基于塔福域理论和TRIZ理论系统地分析了相互保险模式中存在的风险,并且提出了创新性的解决方案,即构建“保险域”。     

站在人类先进文化发展的潮头

该文以唯物史观为指导,阐明了马克思主义文化理论、中国现代文化的形成和中国先进文化的发展方向.作者认为文化是人类社会在经济、政治、精神上的反映,包括意识形态和其他一切精神活动及其产物,对经济、政治又具有强大的反作用.中国现代社会主义文化是由农业封建主义文化在近百年的经济、政治发展的基础上逐渐演变而成的,它的前进方向是面向现代化、面向世界、面向未来的民族的、科学的、大众的社会主义文化.