“一带一路”相关文件政策强度与省域经济开放度关系研究——“一带一路”沿线18个省份实证分析

文章的特色和理论意义在于,尝试量化"一带一路"沿线18个省份"一带一路"相关政策文件,以设计政策效力、政策措施与政策保障的评判要点为基础,确定政策措施强度和政策保障强度.细致讨论"一带一路"文件的政策强度与经济开放度提升之间的关系,并讨论该关系在东西部地区的差异以及政策保障强度在政策措施强度与经济开放度关系之中的调节效应.研究发现:政策措施强度能够正向促进省域经济开放度的提升;在经济开放度高于10％的省份中,政策保障强度正向调节政策措施强度与经济开放度提升之间的关系,政策措施强度和政策保障强度之间存在互补关系;政策措施强度中资金融通强度对于沿线省域经济开放度的提升有着最显著的正向影响,政策沟通强度对于沿线省域经济开放度的提升影响不显著;政策措施强度对省域经济开放度的提升存在地区差别,西部地区更注重"一带一路"倡议所带来的机会.建议:"一带一路"沿线省份在政策设计上,不仅要对政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通和民心相通等内容作出合理规划和布局,还应对保障机制作出可操作性的安排.     

普通野生稻和药用野生稻种子休眠性的研究

对普通野生稻和药用野生稻种子休眠的原因进行了探讨,表明野生稻种的遗传特性、形态性状、颖壳的透性和种子的生理特性与种子休眠有关。研究结果为打破野生稻种子休眠、提高其发茅力提供了依据和适宜的方法。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Taken in by the numbers game: the globalization of a religious ‘illusio’ and ‘doxa’ in nineteenth-century evangelical missions to India

While the Bourdieusian concepts of capital and relational configurations of positions and position-takings have recently been fruitfully employed to theorize global fields, this paper argues that the concepts of illusio and doxa are especially conducive to analyzing the globalization of a field as an expansion into and transformation of formerly independent national arenas. In deploying the concept of illusio as a (quasi-libidinous) investment in the game, globalization is here first and foremost framed as a process in which more and more actors in various contexts ‘succumb’ to specific field logics that orient them to transnational structures. By emphasizing the concept of doxa as the taken-for-granted fundamentals of a field, the paper furthermore calls attention to the mechanisms that help forge and globalize the tacit presuppositions and shared ontologies on which such logics build. Focusing on a field of global Christian missions that emerged during the nineteenth century, the paper illustrates how its competitive logic of proselytization was introduced into the religious arena of India. It highlights how Western notions of religion gained ground among local traditions and pulled them into a game in which numerical relations of adherents mattered.     

A general approximation to quantiles

For many continuous distributions, a closed-form expression for their quantiles does not exist. Numerical approximations for their quantiles are developed on a distribution-by-distribution basis. This work develops a general approximation for quantiles using the Taylor expansion. Our method only requires that the distribution has a continuous probability density function and its derivatives can be derived to a certain order (usually 3 or 4). We demonstrate our unified approach by approximating the quantiles of the normal, exponential, and chi-square distributions. The approximation works well for these distributions.     

京津冀节能减排政策措施的差异与协同研究

在对京津冀1981年以来节能减排政策措施进行量化处理的基础上,建立针对节能减排政策措施有效性的计量模型,分析了京津冀节能减排政策措施的演变状况,并探究京津冀节能减排政策措施对其节能减排效果影响的差异性.研究结果表明:京津冀节能减排政策颁布经历了早期各年份相对零散、缺乏连续性到新世纪以来政策颁布数量显著增多、政策总体力度逐渐增大的过程,但三地政策总效力的增加主要是由于节能减排政策颁布数量增多引起的;京津冀三地在政策的制定过程中更多的是趋于实现短期目标,政策整体缺乏系统性和权威性;人事措施、行政措施、引导措施、财税措施、金融措施等不同节能减排政策措施对京津冀节能和减排的有效性具有明显的差异;三地对不同政策措施的使用方式、使用程度方面存在明显的差异,这对京津冀协同推进节能减排的治理工作提出挑战.论文还从京津冀完善单一节能减排政策措施的使用、加强市场手段的应用及京津冀区域协同治理等方面提出了相应政策建议.     

从语义范畴的角度看量化体与体貌系统

从语义范畴的角度看,现行的体貌系统存在缺陷,这种缺陷集中表现为量化体概念表达的缺失,这种缺失会导致对汉语中的一些与体有关的量化现象难以处理.该文从量化与非量化的对立是语言表达的普遍对立出发,从语义范畴的角度对现行的体貌系统进行了改良,改良后的视点体的一级体对立不再是完整体与未完整体的对立,而是量化视点体与一般视点体(非量化)的对立.本文还进一步指出惯常体属于特殊的视点体,与未完整体没有必然的联系.     

佛山市教师阅读现状调查

学校层次对教师的阅读有明显的影响．总体上．大学教师纸质图书的阅读率高于中学教师．中学教师的阅读率高于小学教师，专著和专业期刊的阅读率情况与此相似。性别和年龄因素对阅读也有一定的影响；而网络在线阅读将成为最有影响力的阅读方式。     

A comparison of test statistics for the recovery of rapid growth‐based enumeration tests

This paper considers five test statistics for comparing the recovery of a rapid growth‐based enumeration test with respect to the compendial microbiological method using a specific nonserial dilution experiment. The finite sample distributions of these test statistics are unknown, because they are functions of correlated count data. A simulation study is conducted to investigate the type I and type II error rates. For a balanced experimental design, the likelihood ratio test and the main effects analysis of variance (ANOVA) test for microbiological methods demonstrated nominal values for the type I error rate and provided the highest power compared with a test on weighted averages and two other ANOVA tests. The likelihood ratio test is preferred because it can also be used for unbalanced designs. It is demonstrated that an increase in power can only be achieved by an increase in the spiked number of organisms used in the experiment. The power is surprisingly not affected by the number of dilutions or the number of test samples. A real case study is provided to illustrate the theory. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CET阅读理解题:问题与方法(二)

本文通过对CET阅读理解考题、提问(问题)以及原文和提问中一些关键词语之间的内含百分比进行分析和对比,探索如何准确解题的方法与捷径。