清末币制改革述评

清朝末年,内忧外患,在银贵钱贱、币制混乱的情况下,清政府逐渐创立起一种新的币制,即银元制度。这实质上是中国在币制上的近代化。     

从小隐、大隐到中隐——论隐逸观念的递嬗及其文化意蕴

隐逸是中国士人心理—行为哲学的命题之一,也是士人内在价值取向与处世态度的外在表征。隐逸历经小隐、大隐到中隐的嬗变,三者有轩轾之别,高下之分。隐逸在其历时性演进过程中,逐渐淡化了传统隐逸以道抗势的抗议精神,显示出隐逸精神化、世俗化的走向,反映了在世俗王权为代表的势统的挤压下士人持守的道统的不断整合和重新定位。     

三叉判定树与伪币问题

对伪币问题提出了三叉判定树方法,并在计算机上给予验证。     

都兰县出土的东罗马金币考证

青海自古就是东西方贸易的交通要道,在当时的丝绸国际贸易中占据了重要的地位。2002年都兰县新发现的东罗马金币为此提供了又一重要物证。本文对此金币作一简单考证。     

Doubly adaptive biased coin designs with heterogeneous responses

Doubly adaptive biased coin design (DBCD) is an important family of response-adaptive randomization procedures for clinical trials. It uses sequentially updated estimation to skew the allocation probability to favor the treatment that has performed better thus far. An important assumption for the DBCD is the homogeneity assumption for the patient responses. However, this assumption may be violated in many sequential experiments. Here we prove the robustness of the DBCD against certain time trends in patient responses. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the design are obtained under some widely satisfied conditions. Also, we propose a general weighted likelihood method to reduce the bias caused by the heterogeneity in the inference after a trial. Some numerical studies are also presented to illustrate the finite sample properties of DBCD.     

古朝鲜铜镜性质初探

公元前一千纪——公元前二世纪时期朝鲜半岛发现多枚与青铜短剑支石墓伴出的细纹铜镜,经与我国商周青铜文化比对,半岛的细纹铜镜以线的艺术构成几何形图案,确认其渊源于中华古文化,尤其与殷商文化密切相关。青铜短剑支石墓渊源于山东东夷文化与东北地区古文化的融合,并经由辽西辽东而后进入朝鲜半岛,青铜短剑为东北系铜剑,分东胡系与貊系,箕子族团“走之朝鲜”,接受北方的青铜短剑石墓文化,建立“衣冠带剑”的君子国：半岛所出明刀钱与布币系箕子朝鲜与中原燕、齐等国经济交流与商品贸易的遗留物证。     

解决农民贷款难的问题的对策与思考

深化农村金融改革过程中阶段性、结构性矛盾是农民贷款难现象产生的原因之一.农村信用环境和农业生产的风险性问题是产生农民贷款难现象的社会因素.改善农村金融服务,强化农业保险制度,加快和推进农村金融机构及结构的功能定位和调整;发展民间金融机构是解决农民贷款难的主要措施.     

"微罪免刑不起诉"之辨--关涉刑诉法第142条第2款规定的思考

深刻理解现行刑诉法第142条第2款规定的不起诉类型,是正确认识不起诉制度的难点和关键所在.为此,本文对其称谓、适用条件,以及该不起诉类型与免予起诉证据不足不起诉的异同等问题进行了探讨.     

A new 'biased coin design' for the sequential allocation of two treatments

Summary.  Efron's biased coin design is a well-known randomization technique that helps to neutralize selection bias in sequential clinical trials for comparing treatments, while keeping the experiment fairly balanced. Extensions of the biased coin design have been proposed by several researchers who have focused mainly on the large sample properties of their designs. We modify Efron's procedure by introducing an adjustable biased coin design, which is more flexible than his. We compare it with other existing coin designs; in terms of balance and lack of predictability, its performance for small samples appears in many cases to be an improvement with respect to the other sequential randomized allocation procedures.     

A theoretical analysis of the power of biased coin designs

Outlining some recently obtained results of Hu and Rosenberger [2003. Optimality, variability, power: evaluating response-adaptive randomization procedures for treatment comparisons. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 98, 671–678] and Chen [2006. The power of Efron's biased coin design. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 136, 1824–1835] on the relationship between sequential randomized designs and the power of the usual statistical procedures for testing the equivalence of two competing treatments, the aim of this paper is to provide theoretical proofs of the numerical results of Chen [2006. The power of Efron's biased coin design. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 136, 1824–1835]. Furthermore, we prove that the Adjustable Biased Coin Design [Baldi Antognini A., Giovagnoli, A., 2004. A new “biased coin design” for the sequential allocation of two treatments. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. C 53, 651–664] is uniformly more powerful than the other “coin” designs proposed in the literature for any sample size.