Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Statistical testing strategies for assessing treatment efficacy and marker accuracy in phase III trials

When a candidate predictive marker is available, but evidence on its predictive ability is not sufficiently reliable, all‐comers trials with marker stratification are frequently conducted. We propose a framework for planning and evaluating prospective testing strategies in confirmatory, phase III marker‐stratified clinical trials based on a natural assumption on heterogeneity of treatment effects across marker‐defined subpopulations, where weak rather than strong control is permitted for multiple population tests. For phase III marker‐stratified trials, it is expected that treatment efficacy is established in a particular patient population, possibly in a marker‐defined subpopulation, and that the marker accuracy is assessed when the marker is used to restrict the indication or labelling of the treatment to a marker‐based subpopulation, ie, assessment of the clinical validity of the marker. In this paper, we develop statistical testing strategies based on criteria that are explicitly designated to the marker assessment, including those examining treatment effects in marker‐negative patients. As existing and developed statistical testing strategies can assert treatment efficacy for either the overall patient population or the marker‐positive subpopulation, we also develop criteria for evaluating the operating characteristics of the statistical testing strategies based on the probabilities of asserting treatment efficacy across marker subpopulations. Numerical evaluations to compare the statistical testing strategies based on the developed criteria are provided.     

在位相空间中求解外力含时的受迫量子谐振子

运用广义线性量子变换理论 ,在位相空间中通过算子的代数运算求解外力含时的受迫谐振子 ,给出了演化算子、演化算子矩阵元和波函数的表示式 .     

我国高校文科学报的“当代化”论

高校文科学报的“当代化”是相对于时下盛行的“现代化”而言的。它是根据我国高校文科学报的发生及其发展历程的阶段性特征 ,以及“当代化”所蕴涵的人类文明进程的阶段性定位和“与时俱进”的时代性体现的科学内涵而提出来的。“当代化”具有现实性和求真性的鲜明特征 ,对于 2 1世纪我国高校文科学报的发展是一种求真务实的选择。     

律师在侦查阶段的诉讼地位和作用

律师在侦查阶段介入刑事诉讼不享有辩护人的独立诉讼地位 ,其法律行为具有法律帮助性质 ,主要为犯罪嫌疑人提供法律咨询 ,代理申诉、控告和为犯罪嫌疑人申请取保候审等。这种界定不仅有利于明确律师在侦查阶段的职责 ,也有利于打消认为律师介入侦查将带来太多负效应的顾虑。     

大学英语作文非语法错误分析及纠错策略

通过深入分析非英语专业大学生英语作文中出现的内容、篇章结构、语言表达等方面的非语法错误,提出了写前阶段构思、审题技巧训练及寓写作于精读课教学等相应的纠错策略。     

ispLSI1016在数字锁相环中的应用

讨论了采用ispLSI1 0 1 6构造数字锁相环的基本方法 ,并给出了分频器、相位比较器和吞脉冲计数器的相应的编码指令     

英语写作中有效反馈信息的探讨

文章简要阐述了反馈信息,论述了作文工作研究的意义及在作文写作中有效的信息反馈形式,提出了增强写作能力的可行措施。     

关于独立董事制度的一个经济逻辑分析

运用体制转轨和渐进改革的宏观视角、使用制度演进和制度创新的分析方法、结合公司治理结构的发展,对独立董事制度的构建背景、意义、发展途径进行一个比较详尽深入的经济逻辑分析,认为在制度潜力发掘—市场规范发展彼此良性互动的作用机制下,独立董事制度将逐渐成熟壮大,最终形成对原有公司治理机构体系的冲击,促使公司治理结构的不断优化和市场的不断成熟规范化变迁。     

调节教学评价的研究

调节教学评价是以推进素质教育为宗旨 ,以“反馈矫正”为基本手段 ,以评价主体间的双向动态调节为主要特征 ,促进教师和学生共同发展的过程。调节教学评价的具体实施程序为 :发展定向—评价反馈—调节矫正。具体的实施要求是 :确立多元化评价指标 ,注重评价的反馈调节功能 ,质的评价和量化评价相结合 ,形成性评价与终结性评价相结合 ,他评与自评相结合