微量元素与人体健康

本文主要阐述微量元素在人体中的生理作用、需要量及与人体健康和疾病的关系,同时指出了科技工作者在这一领域中所要继续开展的工作.     

Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary.  A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities.     

上海市空气污染造成人群健康经济损失的研究

文章通过对上海市空气污染季节性状况的描述 ,分析了各种污染物的污染程度和变化趋势 ,并利用对上海某市级医院的实地调查数据 ,对空气污染物与医院呼吸系统疾病患者日门诊量之间的相关关系进行研讨 ,建立了多元分析模型 ,探讨了患者健康经济损失的计量方法 ,并对由空气污染造成呼吸系统疾病患者健康经济损失进行了估算。研究表明 ,在其他条件不变的情况下 ,NOX 日指数每增长 10 % ,被调查医院呼吸系统疾病患者的日门诊人次增加 7 7人次 ,而这些疾病患者由于患病产生的年度健康经济损失为 2 11万元。据此作保守的推断估计 ,上海市一年内因NOX 超标而发生的呼吸系统疾病门诊行为造成的健康经济损失可以达到 4 2亿元。同样 ,SO2 和TSP造成门诊患者的健康经济损失分别为 1 5亿元和 0 86亿元     

社会性别:女性主义文学的基点

女性主义文学的内涵及其特点都是基于社会性别 ,从长远的斗争目标来看 ,女权主义要用“关怀”代替“平等”这个口号 ,并在此基础上 ,形成一种新的“女性写作”。     

论感觉的形成机制

感觉问题历来成为哲学家研究的重要课题之一 ,因而也是马克思主义哲学重点关注的研究课题。然而 ,过去对感觉问题的研究主要集中在感觉的含义、感觉的性质、感觉在人类认识过程中的地位和作用等问题上 ,而对感觉的形成机制问题关注甚少 ,或限于当时科学发展的水平 ,只是对这一问题作些一般性的描述 ,而缺少具体的阐述和论证。实际上 ,感觉的形成过程是十分复杂的。感觉的产生、形成 ,既是客体作用于主体的结果 ,也是主体的生理机制、思维机制、社会机制共同作用 ,能动地感知客体的结果。全面、深入地认识感觉的形成机制 ,对于我们完整、准确地把握马克思主义的感觉理论 ,进而完整、准确地把握马克思主义的认识论 ,有着十分重要的意义     

Analysis of Regional Scale Risk of Whirling Disease in Populations of Colorado and Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Using a Bayesian Belief Network Model

Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex, exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.     

Children's Physiological Regulation and Sibling Conflict as Correlates of Children's Conscience Development

Children's conscience, including the ability to experience guilt and engage in rule‐compatible behavior, develops across early childhood. The current study investigated whether within‐family variation in children's baseline respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) and sibling conflict behavior were associated with individual differences in children's guilt and internalized conduct. Between‐family differences across sibling dyad gender compositions were also examined. A within‐family design that included 70 families with two siblings between the ages of 2 and 5 was utilized. Children's baseline RSA was measured while sitting quietly with their family. Mothers and fathers completed questionnaires that assessed siblings’ conflict behavior, guilt, and internalized conduct. Older siblings had higher levels of guilt and internalized conduct than younger siblings. Results from actor‐partner interdependence models indicated that there were no direct effects of children's baseline RSA. The interaction effects approached significance (p's ≤ .08) suggesting that older siblings’ conflict moderated the association between older siblings’ baseline RSA and both older and younger siblings’ guilt. In contrast, older siblings’ conflict was positively associated with older and younger siblings’ internalized conduct. Guilt and internalized conduct also differed for older and younger siblings in different dyad gender compositions. The results underscore the need for greater clarity regarding the function that siblings serve in promoting children's moral development during early childhood.     

Statement of Withdrawal: Statistical analysis of an endemic disease from a capture–recapture experiment

There are a number of statistical techniques for analysing epidemic outbreaks. However, many diseases are endemic within populations and the analysis of such diseases are complicated by changing population demography. Motivated by the spread of cowpox among rodent populations, a combined mathematical model for population and disease dynamics is introduced. An MCMC algorithm is then constructed to make statistical inference for the model based on data being obtained from a capture–recapture experiment. The statistical analysis is used to identify the key elements in the spread of the cowpox virus.     

Risk Assessment for Hospital-Acquired Diseases: A Risk-Theory Approach

We introduce a new approach to hospital-acquired disease risk assessment from public health databases. In a spirit similar to actuarial risk theory, we define an adjustment coefficient that can quantify the risk associated with a hospital department, allowing comparisons of similar departments. The adjustment coefficient characterizes the tail of the distribution of the total patient length of stay in a department before the first disease event occurs. We show that this coefficient is the solution of a Lundberg-like equation, and we provide a nonparametric estimation procedure for this measure, based on a Cramér-Lundberg approximation for the tail of the distribution. Using simulations, we provide evidence of the robustness of the approximation to various individual risk models. In addition, we illustrate the relevance of this approach by evaluating the risk associated with a standard patient safety indicator in 20 hospitals of southeastern France.     

醉酒人犯罪刑事责任的立法比较与法理分析

醉酒所致精神障碍,是一个遍及世界各国的重要社会问题之一,而且有越来越严重的趋势.关于醉酒状态下犯罪的刑事责任问题,有的国家刑法没有对之做出专门规定,而是将其作为自愿(故意或过失)陷入无责任能力状态的情形之一,规定不免除或减轻行为人的刑事责任,但有些国家对此作了专门规定.