基于繁殖规律的生猪市场供应模型

生猪生产具有发散性蛛网效应的特点,目前市场的波动正在加剧之中。基于生猪繁殖的自然规律特点,构建了一个易于分析与预测的生猪生产模型。分析显示,目前的生猪市场正在酝酿一场新的危机。导致市场波动的根源在于及时、准确信息的缺失,致使养殖者对母猪盲目的补栏。     

添加沼液养猪的试验研究

沼液喂猪试验表明:添加沼液具有增加食欲、加快生长速度、缩短肥育期、提高饲料利用率(24.4％)、节省饲料,降低养猪成本(24.5％)的优点,在广大农村粗放的饲养管理条件下,沼液喂猪具有较大的推广价值。     

毛发水解粉在育肥猪日粮中应用效果试验

试验选取体重为５０ｋｇ左右的杜×长×大育肥猪２０头,随机分为两个组．对照组喂以基础日粮,试验组喂以基础日粮＋１％毛发水解粉．经３３天的饲养试验证明,试验组全期增重、日增重极显著高于对照组,试验组料肉比优于对照组,试验组比对照组提高饲料利用率料肉比８,３％,试验组每公斤增重成本低于对照组１５．ｌ％结果表明,毛发水解粉能极显著地提高育肥猪的日增重,饲料利用率和经济效益．     

Development and Application of a Stochastic Epidemic Model for the Transmission of Salmonella Typhimurium at the Farm Level of the Pork Production Chain

In previous work a deterministic model for the compartment level was built, taking into account the two different syndromes with which  Salmonella  Typhimurium appears at pig farms. Based on this model, a stochastic one was built in this work that simulated different compartmental sizes, taking into account compartments of 200 to 400 pigs. Multiple scenarios of starting conditions of infection (SCI) ranging from 0.25 to 100% were tested for each population size. The effect of each of these two factors on the probability of disease extinctions and the prevalence of each of the classes of the model and the risk groups of pigs were estimated. The results showed that the compartment population had an inverse effect on the probability of disease extinction. On the other hand, low SCI resulted in high levels of early extinctions reaching 45%, while higher SCI led to high levels of late extinctions. Early extinctions resulted in the absence of the pathogen from the compartment, while late extinctions did not assure it. This effect shows that reducing the population of the compartment combined with appropriate cleaning and good farming practices could have a positive effect in the reduction of the risk of introducing  S.  Typhimurium into the slaughtering procedure. On the other hand, the profile of seroprevalence at slaughter age allows for risk characterization of the farm, given the relative stability and the small variation for higher SCI.     

外国直接投资对基础设施投资的影响分析

建立了外商对基础设施投资的优化模型，并对外商和国内地方政府关于基础设施投资规模的选择进行了定性的博弈分析。在此基础上，进一步探讨了出现目前状况的政策背景并作了相应的定性分析结论表明，外商对国内的基础设施投资规模明显偏小；同时对引进外资加强西部基础设施建设提出了一些建议，以期对决策者提供参考。     

“保命油”在仔猪饲养中应用效果初探

对仔猪饲喂“保命油”进行了初步研究，结果表明：试验组比对照组的成活率提高11．3％（P≤0．05），增重效果也较对照组存在显著差异（P＜0.01）；腹泻指数较对照组偏低，虽然差异不显著，但在病程持续时间上较对照组平均短1-2天。     

植酸酶对生长猪生产性能及养分利用率的影响

本试验采用饲养试验和消化代谢试验研究了植酸酶对生长猪生产性能和养分消化率的影响,饲养试验通过96头20kg左右的长白×荣昌F1杂交猪分别喂给8种不同成分的日粮,消化试验通过20kg左右长白×荣昌F1杂交公猪12头分别喂给3种不同成分的日粮。试验结果表明：在20—60kg生长猪无矿物质磷日粮中添加300mg／kg植酸酶,日增重提高14．5％（P＜0．05）,饲料效率无明显影响,总磷和植酸磷的全消化道消化率分别提高39．3％（P＜0．05）和38．4％（P＜0.05）,氮的沉积效率增加14．4％（P＜0．05）,生长猪日粮添加植酸酶对干物质、粗蛋白质、粗脂肪、粗纤维、粗灰分、无氮浸出物、总能和钙的消化率无影响。     

保险产品创新的博弈:理论综述及政策建议

保险业竞争已趋于＂白热化＂,创新型的保险产品也日益成为保险公司新的业务增长点。文章通过博弈模型,分析保险公司在进行产品创新过程中是选择创新,还是模仿的动因,分析纳什均衡条件,明确产品创新中＂搭便车者＂的存在,我国保险企业在产品创新上形成智猪博弈,根据博弈分析结果提出针对性建议。     

论国际环境保护的效率与均衡——以“智猪博弈”解析“共同但有区别的环境责任”

共同但有区别责任是国际环境法的重要原则，在平衡不同国家环境保护的利益与责任中有重要作用，然而此原则在具体的实施中却受到了重重阻却。“智猪博弈”原理对全球环境保护的效率与均衡提供了一种新的思路，其在效率主导与利益均衡的基础上，对共同但有区别的制度建设提供了一条新的途径。     

Development of a Self‐Regulated Dynamic Model for the Propagation of Salmonella Typhimurium in Pig Farms

A self‐regulated epidemic model was developed to describe the dynamics of Salmonella Typhimurium in pig farms and predict the prevalence of different risk groups at slaughter age. The model was focused at the compartment level of the pig farms and it included two syndromes, a high and a low propagation syndrome. These two syndromes generated two different classes of pigs, the High Infectious and the Low Infectious, respectively, which have different shedding patterns. Given the two different classes and syndromes, the Infectious Equivalent concept was used, which reflected the combination of High and Low Infectious pigs needed for the high propagation syndrome to be triggered. Using the above information a new algorithm was developed that decides, depending on the Infectious Equivalent, which of the two syndromes should be triggered. Results showed that the transmission rate of S. Typhimurium for the low propagation syndrome is around 0.115, pigs in Low Infectious class contribute to the transmission of the infection by 0.61–0.80 of pigs in High Infectious class and that the Infectious Equivalent should be above 10–14% of the population in order for the high propagation syndrome to be triggered. This self‐regulated dynamic model can predict the prevalence of the classes and the risk groups of pigs at slaughter age for different starting conditions of infection.