A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.     

英国的刑事上诉制度研究

英国对刑事案件基本上实行两级上诉制度 :对于刑事法院的一审裁判可以依次向上诉法院和上议院上诉 ;对治安法院的裁判 ,可以分别向刑事法院或者高等法院以及上议院上诉 ,但是 ,二者的程序规则不完全相同。2 0世纪 70年代以来 ,英国上诉制度逐渐向大陆法系靠拢 ,最近英国政府再次提议进一步扩大控诉方的上诉权 ,英国上诉制度可能将发生重大变化。     

荀悦思想研究综述

20世纪以来 ,学术界对东汉思想家荀悦的哲学性质、社会政治思想、人性道德论思想、历史观与史学思想、其他学术思想等方面进行了研究 ,取得了一定的研究成果 ,体现出有关荀悦研究的若干特点     

中国农村妇女问题研究综述

随着党中央对三农问题的重视,中国农村妇女问题逐渐凸现出来。对近二十年的中国农村妇女研究重新进行阶段划分,并对中国农村妇女研究所涉及的性别与劳动就业分工,农业女性化问题,农村妇女家庭地位及其变化,农村妇女科学文化素质及培训,农村女性劳动力流动及影响因素,农村妇女与贫困,农村妇女与人口再生产,农村妇女与资源、环境和持续发展,农村妇女参政议政等问题,进行多角度的分析说明,从中总结出经验和不足。农村妇女发展要联系农村实际,要针对多方面因素考虑农村妇女发展与农村诸要素之间的关系。农村妇女研究要采取定量与定性相结合的分析方法,从不同地域、不同环境入手分析当地农村妇女的实际情况,以便在今后的研究中得以借鉴。     

Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t-distribution

Summary . A fairly general procedure is studied to perturb a multivariate density satisfying a weak form of multivariate symmetry, and to generate a whole set of non-symmetric densities. The approach is sufficiently general to encompass some recent proposals in the literature, variously related to the skew normal distribution. The special case of skew elliptical densities is examined in detail, establishing connections with existing similar work. The final part of the paper specializes further to a form of multivariate skew t -density. Likelihood inference for this distribution is examined, and it is illustrated with numerical examples.     

"辩诉交易"立法可行性的相对合理解读

“辩诉交易”制度是起源于英美法系国家 ,并为诸多发达国家所借鉴的刑事诉讼程序。在分析“辩诉交易”的起源及当前国际上的立法、司法现状基础上 ,一定范围内承认“辩诉交易”的合法性 ,借鉴其来弥补我国刑事诉讼简易程序、“坦白从宽”刑事政策、污点证人作证豁免制度的不足 ,并由此提出相对合理的立法思路和具体建议     

近二十年中国汉民族起源、形成研究综述(二)

汉民族是我国乃至世界上最大的民族 ,而关于汉民族的研究 ,长期以来却被国内学术界所忽视 ,汉民族史常被淹没在通史和断代史研究之中。十一届三中全会后 ,汉民族研究如雨后春笋 ,一直在不断地兴旺勃发。特别是近二十年来 ,汉民族研究取得了蔚为壮观的成绩 ,为世人瞩目。     

国内专利情报研究综述

本文从专利情报的作用、分析、工作等六个研究热点对国内的专利情报研究进行了较为全面地总结和概括,并对研究的不足之处提出了自己的看法。     

Markov Properties for Acyclic Directed Mixed Graphs

We consider acyclic directed mixed graphs, in which directed edges ( x → y ) and bi-directed edges ( x ↔ y ) may occur. A simple extension of Pearl's d -separation criterion, called m -separation, is applied to these graphs. We introduce a local Markov property which is equivalent to the global property resulting from the m -separation criterion for arbitrary distributions.     

完善民事简易程序的现实必要性及其应遵守的原则

民事简易程序亟需加以完善.完善的现实必要性一是"权利的勃兴是一般背景";二是"冲突增多与司法资源有限是客观需求".完善时必须遵守最低程序保障原则、确保基本公正的原则和司法大众化的原则.