Capturing the broader picture of value co-creation management

The interactional, interdependent, and dynamic nature of value co-creation has made value management in business relationships a particularly challenging issue for both academicians and practitioners. In addition, studies on this topic have mostly focused on managing value co-creation in isolation from the wider relational context without completely capturing the influence of other value processes on value co-creation. This paper examines the broader picture of value co-creation management by providing a model based on interlinked value processes, namely, value communication, value appropriation, value measurement, and value representation. We adopted a qualitative approach based on 86 interviews with managers of both customer and supplier companies, which operated in different industries. Results showed that the management of value co-creation implies considering complex patterns of interconnections with other value processes. In particular, the study will shed light on the centrality of value appropriation to co-create value and on the importance of value representation to coordinate ideas and enable future co-creation opportunities.     

从主权国家的兴衰看权力博弈形态的转型

传统的国际关系理论,无论是现实主义、自由主义、建构主义还是科学行为主义理论,都是把主权国家抽象成一个统一的国际关系行为体。这一行为主体有一致的利益,也自然要有一致的对外政策目标和手段。在20世纪,尤其是在两次世界大战和冷战期间,这一概念抽象是非常准确的。但冷战结束以后,尤其是进入21世纪以后,这一概念抽象逐渐与国际关系的现实相违背。一方面,国家综合实力并不能直接转化为具体领域的竞争优势;另一方面,很多国家,包括超级大国在内,其对外政策的主要阻力可能不是所谓的竞争对手,而是其国内不同的利益集团。这导致传统的国际关系理论,从假设到概念和推理层面,都已经无法解释和预测今天的世界,而权力小博弈理论可以为认识多元复杂互动博弈时代的国际关系提供一个新的解释框架。     

A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

“一带一路”沿线国家设施联通对贸易利益的影响

以全球价值链（GVC）参与为视角，基于2005—2015年40个“一带一路”沿线国家与我国的增加值贸易数据，采用静态面板固定效应模型实证分析交通基础设施和通信基础设施对“一带一路”沿线国家贸易利益的影响。结果发现，加强交通和通信基础设施建设有利于提高一国出口中所包含的国内增加值，增进该国的贸易利益。作用机制研究表明，交通基础设施和通信基础设施都能够通过降低贸易成本促进贸易利益的提升，其中通信基础设施还能够通过提高贸易的时间效率对贸易利益产生积极影响。因此，“一带一路”沿线国家应以设施联通为依托，加强本国的交通和通信基础设施建设，把握参与国际生产分工的主动权，以实现共同发展繁荣。     

Statistical testing strategies for assessing treatment efficacy and marker accuracy in phase III trials

When a candidate predictive marker is available, but evidence on its predictive ability is not sufficiently reliable, all‐comers trials with marker stratification are frequently conducted. We propose a framework for planning and evaluating prospective testing strategies in confirmatory, phase III marker‐stratified clinical trials based on a natural assumption on heterogeneity of treatment effects across marker‐defined subpopulations, where weak rather than strong control is permitted for multiple population tests. For phase III marker‐stratified trials, it is expected that treatment efficacy is established in a particular patient population, possibly in a marker‐defined subpopulation, and that the marker accuracy is assessed when the marker is used to restrict the indication or labelling of the treatment to a marker‐based subpopulation, ie, assessment of the clinical validity of the marker. In this paper, we develop statistical testing strategies based on criteria that are explicitly designated to the marker assessment, including those examining treatment effects in marker‐negative patients. As existing and developed statistical testing strategies can assert treatment efficacy for either the overall patient population or the marker‐positive subpopulation, we also develop criteria for evaluating the operating characteristics of the statistical testing strategies based on the probabilities of asserting treatment efficacy across marker subpopulations. Numerical evaluations to compare the statistical testing strategies based on the developed criteria are provided.     

基于信号博弈的卖方欺诈行为分析

本文主要基于信号博弈的卖方欺诈行为进行研究，假设拍卖中可能存在欺诈型和诚实型两种卖家，其中欺诈行为有概率发生在第二价格拍卖中：欺诈型卖方冒充竞拍者递交仅次于最高价的报价从而获得额外收益。两种卖家根据各自效用选择拍卖形式：第一价格或者第二价格。而竞买者将卖者的选择作为信号，更新对卖方类型的判断，然后制定报价策略。这是一个买卖方信号交叉影响的过程。考虑到拍卖过程中买方价值相关性，本文在建立模型中参考了关联价值原理。针对该模型进行分析，得出了不同情况下的买卖方策略，并且研究了买方报价、买方判断、卖方收益三者之间的关系。文中利用贝叶斯公式对双方的策略选择问题进行预测，与单纯的概率分布方法相比，更具实践价值。     

论“莱西会议精神”对新时期全面深化农村基层党组织建设的价值和意义

农村基层党组织是党在农村的神经末梢,也是党的路线、方针、政策的"终端"推动者和实践者。现阶段农村党组织建设面临新兴组织不断涌现与党组织作用削弱的不适应,"权力和资源缺失"与服务刚性增强的不适应,村民自治进一步发展与群众政治参与欠充分的不适应,群众诉求多样化与满足渠道单一的不适应,部分党员党性不强、意识淡化与始终保持先进性的要求不适应等问题。在加强以党支部为核心的农村基层组织建设的"莱西会议精神"指导下,全面深化农村基层党组织建设:思想上高度认识是前提,加强支部建设是核心,坚持法治、完善村民自治是重点,紧扣服务、创新制度是关键,统筹协调、综合配套是保障。     

The impact of social power and influence on the implementation of innovation strategies: A case study of a UK mega infrastructure construction project

Influence plays a key role in reaching consensus among multiple actors involved in project-based decision-making processes. While prior literature devotes considerable attention to describing influence, little attention has been paid to influence at the individual level of the strategic project manager within the context of megaprojects. This research intended to fill this knowledge gap by identifying and describing the influence strategies that a strategic project manager applies when implementing innovation strategies on megaprojects. A qualitative case study was used to examine the complex social processes involved in a major UK capital investment programme. The findings underline a critical subset of influence strategies, notably higher-management support, inspirational appeal and bargaining. The study proposes a utilitarian structure of social power comprising selective, supportive and executory power bases.     

Beyond tail median and conditional tail expectation: Extreme risk estimation using tail Lp-optimization

The conditional tail expectation (CTE) is an indicator of tail behavior that takes into account both the frequency and magnitude of a tail event. However, the asymptotic normality of its empirical estimator requires that the underlying distribution possess a finite variance; this can be a strong restriction in actuarial and financial applications. A valuable alternative is the median shortfall (MS), although it only gives information about the frequency of a tail event. We construct a class of tail L^p-medians encompassing the MS and CTE. For p in (1,2), a tail L^p-median depends on both the frequency and magnitude of tail events, and its empirical estimator is, within the range of the data, asymptotically normal under a condition weaker than a finite variance. We extrapolate this estimator and another technique to extreme levels using the heavy-tailed framework. The estimators are showcased on a simulation study and on real fire insurance data.