论高校内部资金结算中心

现代财务管理的核心是资金的管理 ,而高校内部资金结算中心就是以货币资金管理为中心 ,针对目前高校资金紧张现状 ,加强资金管理的职能部门。文章从高校内部资金结算中心存在的必要性、职能、管理、发展前景等方面略抒己见。     

Implied Preference for Seismic Design Level and Earthquake Insurance

Seismic risk can be reduced by implementing newly developed seismic provisions in design codes. Furthermore, financial protection or enhanced utility and happiness for stakeholders could be gained through the purchase of earthquake insurance. If this is not so, there would be no market for such insurance. However, perceived benefit associated with insurance is not universally shared by stakeholders partly due to their diverse risk attitudes. This study investigates the implied seismic design preference with insurance options for decisionmakers of bounded rationality whose preferences could be adequately represented by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The investigation is focused on assessing the sensitivity of the implied seismic design preference with insurance options to model parameters of the CPT and to fair and unfair insurance arrangements. Numerical results suggest that human cognitive limitation and risk perception can affect the implied seismic design preference by the CPT significantly. The mandatory purchase of fair insurance will lead the implied seismic design preference to the optimum design level that is dictated by the minimum expected lifecycle cost rule. Unfair insurance decreases the expected gain as well as its associated variability, which is preferred by risk-averse decisionmakers. The obtained results of the implied preference for the combination of the seismic design level and insurance option suggest that property owners, financial institutions, and municipalities can take advantage of affordable insurance to establish successful seismic risk management strategies.     

Effects of Marriage and Children on Financial Risk Tolerance: A Synthesis of Family Development and Prospect Theory

Family development and prospect theory were used as a framework to predict variability in individuals' subjective financial risk tolerance within distinct family structures. Gender, age, and income were expected to interact with the main effects of family structure (marital status and children). Theory-generated hypotheses were examined in Study 1 (data from university housing respondents, n = 76) and Study 2 (the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances, n = 4,305). One family structure main effect (child presence) was significant for investment risk tolerance in both studies. Family structure interactions (marital status × age and child × income) were significant for employment risk (Study 1), and child × age was significant for investment risk in Study 2.     

世界贸易组织：优势、挑战与前景

本文探讨了世界贸易组织的优势和面临的挑战，并对其发展前景作了展望。作者认为，与过去的国际贸易组织和关贸总协定相比，世界贸易组织具有许多优势，世界经济联系越来越紧密、冷战后各国对经济安全的重视、世界经济多极化的发展、发展中国家贸易政策的自由化和自身较完善的机制等都是其优势所在。但同时世界贸易组织也面临着各国经济摩擦加剧、发达国家贸易保护主义抬头、区域经济集团剧增和自身机制尚存在缺陷等挑战。基于以上分析，作者对世界贸易组织的未来前景持谨慎的乐观态度，认为世界贸易组织不会象国际贸易组织那样中途夭折，也不会象关贸总协定那样软弱被动，它将在成员国之间不断的冲突与妥协中存在并发挥比较强有力的作用。     

长江三峡人文地理研究的回顾与展望

以文献法为主要研究方法,利用网络资源检索出的相关专业论文,选取了其中的150多篇为研究基础,并参考了部分专著,在回顾以长江三峡为特定区域的人文地理研究的历史进程的基础上进行了综合评述。重点分析、总结了1990年代以来的主要研究特点,并在此基础上就长江三峡人文地理研究的未来趋向进行了展望。     

年画的历史渊源及其发展前景

年画是我国传统的民间艺术形式,是中华民族乃至世界文化的重要组成部分,随着时代的变迁和社会的变化,这一曾盛极几个时代的民间艺术逐渐走向了衰落。但是随着时代的发展和人们对于传统文化的重新认识和审视,年画作为一种优秀的俗文化品类很有可能在将来的社会发展过程中变化其审美形式和艺术样式,向具有传统年画装饰意义的新艺术式样蜕变,成为一种新的符合时代要求和社会发展的年画艺术。     

基于马尔可夫链的产品市场保有量预测模型

售后服务机构为了准确地准备库存,都需要预测产品的市场保有量。基于马尔可夫链建立的状态概率矩阵模型,与抽样调查、时间序列法、回归分析法等方法相比,更能准确预测市场产品保有量。与传统产品相比较,更新换代速度快的电子产品,要预测其市场保有量,更需要利用状态概率矩阵模型。     

美元、日元、英镑的中长期汇率预测方法研究

文章运用组合预测方法对中长期汇率走势进行分析 ,并根据贝特斯 (Bates)和格朗格 (Granger)提出的组合预测方法 ,对美元兑日元、美元兑英镑的中长期汇率进行了预测 ,提出组合预测为一种较好的方法。     

投资者信心和中国宏观经济波动——基于MIDAS混频模型

将投资者信心指数引入MIDAS混频模型之中,可以考察新冠疫情背景下投资者信心对于中国宏观经济波动的影响。基于投资者信心指数和“三驾马车”对我国季度GDP增长率进行预测,通过实证发现:引入投资者信心指数的MIDAS混频模型在预测精准度方面和基准模型进行比较,预测精准度高于未加入投资者信心的模型,均方根残差比值更小;在多元MIDAS混频模型之中,加入投资者信心指数的回归模型对我国GDP的实时预报和短期预测结果更加稳定,可为决策者提供更加精确的参考区间;宏观经济的波动对投资者信心指数变化反应,和投资、消费和进出口相比是最灵敏的。这为定量追踪宏观经济波动提供了一个新的视角。     

改革目标和企业风险度测定─—现代企业制度建设的关键

在建立现代企业制度的探索中,原有的“承包制”在实践中已暴露它的不足,与改革的深入不相适应。企业的生机在于竞争和风险。在商品经济条件下,企业经营实际上就是经营者运用创新手段,将受损风险转化为超额收获。而企业生产经营所存在的诸多不确定因素,可以通过概率论中的中心极限定理和经验,借鉴计划评审法（ＰＥＲＴ）中概率估算法对企业的经验风险度作出有价值的测定。