Implied Preference for Seismic Design Level and Earthquake Insurance

Seismic risk can be reduced by implementing newly developed seismic provisions in design codes. Furthermore, financial protection or enhanced utility and happiness for stakeholders could be gained through the purchase of earthquake insurance. If this is not so, there would be no market for such insurance. However, perceived benefit associated with insurance is not universally shared by stakeholders partly due to their diverse risk attitudes. This study investigates the implied seismic design preference with insurance options for decisionmakers of bounded rationality whose preferences could be adequately represented by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The investigation is focused on assessing the sensitivity of the implied seismic design preference with insurance options to model parameters of the CPT and to fair and unfair insurance arrangements. Numerical results suggest that human cognitive limitation and risk perception can affect the implied seismic design preference by the CPT significantly. The mandatory purchase of fair insurance will lead the implied seismic design preference to the optimum design level that is dictated by the minimum expected lifecycle cost rule. Unfair insurance decreases the expected gain as well as its associated variability, which is preferred by risk-averse decisionmakers. The obtained results of the implied preference for the combination of the seismic design level and insurance option suggest that property owners, financial institutions, and municipalities can take advantage of affordable insurance to establish successful seismic risk management strategies.     

日本都道府县防灾无线网的建设及借鉴

日本是世界上灾害管理通信系统建设领先的国家,相关经验对我国灾害管理通信系统的建设有着重要的借鉴意义。都道府县防灾无线网是日本灾害管理通信系统的重要组成部分,已具备了较为成熟的建设模式和应用经验。本文介绍了日本灾害管理通信系统的框架、都道府县防灾无线网的体系架构及其通信系统组成,选择了神奈川县、长野县和三重县作为典型案例,对这三个县的防灾无线网的建设和应用情况作了分析,并借鉴日本的经验,结合我国的实际,提出了五个方面的建设建议。     

The Assessment of Probability Distributions from Expert Opinions with an Application to Seismic Fragility Curves

A method is developed for estimating a probability distribution using estimates of its percentiles provided by experts. The analyst's judgment concerning the credibility of these expert opinions is quantified in the likelihood function of Bayes'Theorem. The model considers explicitly the random variability of each expert estimate, the dependencies among the estimates of each expert, the dependencies among experts, and potential systematic biases. The relation between the results of the formal methods of this paper and methods used in practice is explored. A series of sensitivity studies provides insights into the significance of the parameters of the model. The methodology is applied to the problem of estimation of seismic fragility curves (i.e., the conditional probability of equipment failure given a seismically induced stress).     

魔兽与母亲——灾难的象征论

1991年10月发生在奥克兰地区的大火灾造成25人丧生,6000多人无家可归。幸存者用各种方式表达自己对这场灾难的认识,其中凸显了有关自然与文化、有序与无序、时间与空间以及传统的男女性别区分与生死等二元结构,尤其是对作为自然象征的母亲与作为灾难象征的魔兽二者之间的对立显示了自然与非自然力量的对比。人们为了解释灾难的去而复来,甚至认定灾难的发生是早已注定的、循环的,从而肯定了上帝对于自然灾害发生的控制权,由此,毁灭者也是创造者。奥克兰大火中隐含着如建筑材料的不当使用和居民区的不合理规划等技术性因素,因此其可部分归结为技术性灾难。而由于技术性灾难产生于一个文化的竞技场,而不是自然自身的,在这种情况下,能满足人们心理需求的合乎情理的灾难意象或隐喻非常少,因此,技术性灾难不会流变为神话,而是作为永远的历史而存在。综观上述过程,灾难被重新界定为＂创造性的毁灭＂,从而被赋予了一种令人敬畏的美。尽管并非所有的文化都会以上述方式去象征地表达灾难,但所有的文化在描述与解释灾难时,象征都将会是他们行动的一部分。这些象征的建立缓解或消解了灾民对于灾难的恐惧,这也可以部分解释为什么灾难多发区的居民大多不愿意搬迁。     

作为文化感应变化的间断熵——埃克森·瓦尔迪兹石油泄漏事故研究

间断熵在文化领域被定义为一种永久的衰退,是人类文化系统对环境适应灵活性的永久萎缩,它预测并解释了灾后人类系统不能重建的原因。1989年发生于埃克森·瓦尔迪兹的石油泄漏事故是一次技术性灾难,对威廉王子湾地区的商业性捕鱼和建立在生存资料基础上的社区生活模式造成了严重的影响,并在其随后的灾后重建中表现出明显的间断熵过程。究其原因在于：（1）自然资源基础受到严重损坏,影响了原有的生计方式;（2）外来援助的方向性错误或有所保留,致使当地居民的精神创伤加剧;（3）灾后地区政治生态妨碍人类与环境互动传统模式的恢复。威廉王子湾地区作为自然资源社区,代表了一种文化上适合可持续发展的能力,那么他们应该被竭力保护,而不是被排斥或消除。对此,人类学家应该致力于研究如何对抗间断熵,为预防、应对和缓解灾难创造出文化上适宜的新方法。     

人类学的灾害研究如何呈现——兼评《泥石流灾害的人类学研究》

以民族志的方式,对地方层面的灾害场景和灾害感知进行完整呈现和系统转述,是人类学灾害研究的关键。《泥石流灾害的人类学研究》一书基于特定灾害场景的系统考察,来呈现人类社会与环境系统的复杂互动过程,并就不同人类群体如何借助社会文化资源来认识和应对灾害的经验图景加以辨析,这代表了灾害人类学研究发展的一种新趋势。     

Opportunities and Challenges for Public Libraries to Enhance Community Resilience

This study bridges a gap between public library and emergency management policy versus practice by examining the role of public libraries in the community resource network for disaster recovery. Specifically, this study identifies the opportunities and challenges for public libraries to fulfill their role as a FEMA‐designated essential community organization and enhance community resilience. The results indicate there are several opportunities for libraries to enhance community resilience by offering technology resources and assistance; providing office, meeting, and community living room space; serving as the last redundant communication channel and a repository for community information and disaster narratives; and adapting or expanding services already offered to meet the changing needs of the community. However, libraries also face challenges in enhancing community resilience, including the temptation to overcommit library capacity and staff capability beyond the library mission and a lack of long‐term disaster plans and collaboration with emergency managers and government officials. Implications for library and emergency management practice and crisis research are discussed.     

The disaster relief and social work after the Wenchuan earthquake in Mainland China

ABSTRACT

This paper mainly focuses on the development of disaster social work in Mainland China and the intervention of social work in disaster relief. Before the Wenchuan earthquake and in the initial stage of post-earthquake, disaster social work was mainly based on individual psychotherapy; from the earthquake to the year of 2012 in which post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction was completed, the disaster relief began to emphasise community building and integration, while the basic framework for disaster social work was also established. Social workers begin to explore the new mode of developmental and localised disaster social work. By combining with the practical experiences from disaster social work, this paper tries to highlight the dilemmas confronting disaster relief in Mainland China and put forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, which could improve the future disaster relief system in Mainland China.     

Developing a multi-level organization-public dialogic communication framework to assess social media-mediated disaster communication and engagement outcomes

Dialogic communication has long been viewed as vital for effective organization-public relations. Yet, it is under-theorized whether and how organizations’ disaster communication messages may embody dialogic communication principles, and how various dialogic features are associated with different public engagement outcomes on social media. Extending the Organization-Public Dialogic Communication (OPDC) framework to the context of social media-mediated disaster communication, we propose a multi-level framework to assess the dialogic capacity of Facebook messages sent by disaster management organizations during a natural disaster. Three levels of dialogic communication characteristics (i.e., message structure-level, topic-level, and linguistic level) are examined using content analysis and Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC). Results identified media richness, correcting, and confirming topics as three consistent predictors of public engagement of all types. Meanwhile, there exhibit greater variations regarding how other topical features and linguistic characteristics are related to public’s cognitive, emotional, and behavioral engagement during a disaster.     

城市防灾绿地现状调查与分析——以黄山市为例

以黄山市中心城区为例,综合黄山市中心城区绿地现状以及灾害发生点,对城区内防灾绿地的选址进行合理安排,确定黄山学院南区、世纪广场等区域为灾害发生的避难点,并依据黄山市道路结构系统,提出了恰当的一级、二级避难通道。灾害发生点、避难通道、防灾绿地点三者有机结合,形成完善的避难系统。