Implied Preference for Seismic Design Level and Earthquake Insurance

Seismic risk can be reduced by implementing newly developed seismic provisions in design codes. Furthermore, financial protection or enhanced utility and happiness for stakeholders could be gained through the purchase of earthquake insurance. If this is not so, there would be no market for such insurance. However, perceived benefit associated with insurance is not universally shared by stakeholders partly due to their diverse risk attitudes. This study investigates the implied seismic design preference with insurance options for decisionmakers of bounded rationality whose preferences could be adequately represented by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The investigation is focused on assessing the sensitivity of the implied seismic design preference with insurance options to model parameters of the CPT and to fair and unfair insurance arrangements. Numerical results suggest that human cognitive limitation and risk perception can affect the implied seismic design preference by the CPT significantly. The mandatory purchase of fair insurance will lead the implied seismic design preference to the optimum design level that is dictated by the minimum expected lifecycle cost rule. Unfair insurance decreases the expected gain as well as its associated variability, which is preferred by risk-averse decisionmakers. The obtained results of the implied preference for the combination of the seismic design level and insurance option suggest that property owners, financial institutions, and municipalities can take advantage of affordable insurance to establish successful seismic risk management strategies.     

Modelling heterogeneous space–time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis

Summary. Earthquake intensities are modelled as a function of previous activity whose specific form is based on established empirical laws in seismology, but whose parameter values can vary from place to place. This model is used for characterizing regional features of seismic activities in and around Japan, and also for exploring regions where the actual seismicity rate systematically deviates from that of the modelled rate.     

基于互信息的功能磁共振图像配准

互信息作为衡量两幅图像配准的相似性测度函数,当两幅图像配准时,互信息达到最大值。该文提出了基于互信息脑功能磁共振图像配准新方法,采用了无需计算梯度的Powell直接搜索算法,并通过多分辨的方式加快了图像配准速度。磁共振的配准实验证明,互信息法能准确地实现多模态医学图像的配准,并且能达到亚像素的精度。     

Identifying Skeleton Curves in Noisy Data

This article presents a Bayesian method to reconstruct the centerline in noisy data using B-spline curves. The method is illustrated on simulated two- and three-dimensional data and is applied to recover the centerline of the colon in single photon emission computed tomography images.     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

大都市的扩展历程与大都市边缘区的城乡一体化问题分析

以一座三塔悬索桥为分析对象,采用SAP2000平台建立该桥空间动力有限元模型并进行非线性动力分析,研究了地震作用下,缆梁间设置中央扣、中塔与主梁间设置弹性索和二者组合使用对于该桥抗震性能的影响。分析结果表明,缆梁间设置中央扣可以显著减小主梁位移和中塔塔底剪力和弯矩,但会使各塔顶主索鞍座水平力和边塔内力增加;选用合理的弹性索刚度,可以有效控制主梁位移,同时使中塔与边塔的受力处于合理范围内;两者组合使用,能够进一步降低主梁位移和均衡中塔与边塔的受力,同时可以减小弹性索索力,更有利于中塔下横梁受力。     

有利砂体识别与解释

天然气的产量与砂岩的厚度,孔隙度,连通性,砂泥比等有密切的关系。为了解决砂体在空间以什么形态出现,其方向如何,纵向上如何变化,连通形式如何等问题,在前人研究的基础上,对篷来镇组某工区的砂体进行了精细识别和解释。在地震剖面上,砂体的响应一般表现为强振幅,低频率。孔隙性好,含气丰度高的砂体往往表现为速度低和极性反转的特点。但发现该工区的砂体在地震剖面上表现形式多变,甚至出现了合成地震记录与井旁地震记录严重不吻合的现象,故砂体识别工作不能遵循统一模式。因此,采用了多井约束,多层标定,分层解释来识别有利砂体。     

Sex differences in the development of mild cognitive impairment and probable Alzheimer’s disease as predicted by hippocampal volume or white matter hyperintensities

This study examined biological sex differences in the development of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and probable Alzheimer’s disease (AD) development as predicted by changes in the hippocampus or white matter hyperintensities. A secondary data analysis of the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set was conducted. We selected samples of participants with normal cognition at baseline who progressed to MCI (n = 483) and those who progressed to probable AD (n = 211) to determine if hippocampal volume or white matter hyperintensities (WMH) at baseline predicted progression to probable AD or MCI and whether the rate of progression differed between men and women. The survival analyses indicated that changes in hippocampal volumes affected the progression to probable AD (HR = 0.535, 95% CI [0.300–0.953]) only among women. White men had an increased rate of progression to AD (HR = 4.396, CI [1.012–19.08]; HR = 4.665, 95% CI [1.072–20.29]) compared to men in other race and ethnic groups. Among women, increases in hippocampal volume ratio led to decreased rates of progressing to MCI (HR = 0.386, 95% CI [0.166–0.901]). Increased WMH among men led to faster progression to MCI (HR = 1.048. 95% CI [1.011–1.086]). Women and men who were older at baseline were more likely to progress to MCI. In addition, results from longitudinal analyses showed that women with a higher CDR global score, older age at baseline, or more disinhibition symptoms experienced higher odds of MCI development. Changes in hippocampal volumes affect the progression to or odds of probable AD (and MCI) more so among women than men, while changes in WMH affected the progression to MCI only among men.     

数字多声束形成技术

医用超声诊断设备中存在两种声束形成技术。近年来在少数几个高档设备中使用了数字声束形成技术。正交分解是获得复包络信号的幅度和相位的关键，而数字延迟是数字电子聚焦所必须的。文中介绍了数字多声束形成的原理及应用。     

虚拟成像技术在林业科普中的应用研究——以“绿色微型生态”科普展示系统为例

数字科普是未来林业科普发展的主要方向。数字科普具有内容生动、形式多样、互动灵活等特点,相对于传统科普形式而言更有吸引力,能达到更好的科普效果。虚拟成像技术作为目前最有影响力的数字技术之一,将在林业科普的数字化进程中起到不可估量的作用。以"绿色微型生态"科普展示系统为例,通过分析该系统的设计思路、制作过程、实现功能和虚拟成像技术在该系统中的具体应用,探讨虚拟成像技术在林业科普领域的应用情况,研究林业科普产品的数字化创新方向,以及虚拟成像技术在林业科普数字化进程中的重要作用。