财务风险的认识及防范

对企业而言 ,由于资本结构的不同而形成的财务风险是一柄双刃剑 ,使用得当 ,它可以提高企业利润 ,增加股东财富 ;反之 ,安排欠妥 ,它会加速企业亏损甚至破产。因此掌握好有关财务风险的基本内容 ,学会如何有效地利用财务杠杆工具 ,防范财务风险 ,显得尤为重要。对财务风险的防范并非意味着去减少或消灭它 ,而是运用管理会计的思想和方法 ,加强内部管理 ,其目的是改善经营管理 ,提高经济效益。     

Failure Probability Under Parameter Uncertainty

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location‐scale families (including the log‐normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.     

寿险公司偿付能力的综合评价

偿付能力是衡量一个公司经济能力的综合指标，而偿付能力监管是保险监管的首要目标，也是保险公司风险管理的主要内容。依据中国保监会对寿险公司偿付能力监管的要求，选取了九个财务指标，运用主成分分析法对18家活跃在中国保险市场的寿险公司的偿付能力进行了综合评价，提出应当拓宽保险资金运用渠道，优化管理结构，引进优秀人才，改进偿付能力评估办法，从而有效地提高中国寿险公司偿付能力。     

固定收益债券信用等级迁移的影响因素分析：基于财务指标的实证研究

固定收益债券的信用等级迁移问题日益引起投资者和监管者的关注,预测信用等级迁移需要找到关键指标。财务数据对企业未来业绩具有显著影响,可以反映运营企业的信用质量。当前信用等级发生迁移债券存在发行期限集中、行业特征明显、发债目的差异化等特点,通过构建Logistic模型对影响债券信用等级迁移的财务指标进行实证分析发现：偿债能力和盈利能力都对企业债的信用等级迁移具有显著影响,但是信用升级和信用降级分别对不同的财务指标敏感。发债企业要想提高债券信用等级,需提高盈利能力;投资者要想降低信用风险,应考虑减少甚至剔除投资组合中偿债能力发生显著负面变化的债券;监管者要想对发债企业进行更有效监管,需关注偿债能力指标以及主营业务利润率的变化。     

审慎的保险法律监管制度探析

随着加入WTO,我国经济日益与世界经济融为一体,日趋增强的竞争趋势推动着我国重新构造保险市场及保险法律监管体系。分析了保险法律监管制度的理论基础及全球金融部门法律监管制度融合的趋势。在对国际上不同的审慎监管的法律思想分析的基础上,重新审视我国审慎监管的法律制度,分析其存在的问题,并提出改进的对策及建议。     

'信息割据'下的沟通失效与公共论坛重建————发现互联网时代新的公共论坛原则

传统公共论坛原则关注宪法上公民言论自由权利的平等保护,却无法解决互联网时代的沟通无效问题。互联网带来了信息传播工具和主体的变革,但由于“信息割据”造成的沟通失效,网络发展对政治和社会稳定产生了不容忽视的副作用。这种副作用主要表现在“观念市场”的失灵、“群体极化”、标签化倾向以及由此带来的社会群体之间的矛盾。一种新的公共论坛原则对解决这种无效沟通问题提供了可能方案,这种以公共性、兼容性、有效性为核心的新公共论坛原则试图在充分保障言论自由的同时消减网络传媒的副作用,也为主流媒体如何成为真正的主流、发挥稳定社会的作用提供了启示。     

Financial Crisis and Sustainability of US Fiscal Deficit: Indicators or Tests?

Whether or not budgetary policies are sustainable and can be conducted without creating the potential for government bankruptcy is a central question for macroeconomic analysis. In this paper, we show that indicators and tests to assess government solvency should not be used alternatively. We lay out a simple and intuitive procedure to integrate simultaneously the results from the two approaches to fiscal sustainability. Indicators are forward looking, for they are based on published forecasts, thus reacting to a set of current and expected future conditions in fiscal-policy making. Tests, by contrast, are backward looking, for they are based on a sample of past data. In the event of conflicting results, indicators may signal the occurrence of a structural change in policy, which may reverse the predictions of tests. Whether the results from indicators or from tests should be given priority in the assessment of the sustainability of public debt will thus depend on the structural stability of the historical data generating process of the primary surplus. Only in the absence of a structural break in the stance of fiscal policy, the potential warning predictions of fiscal indicators should be interpreted as merely reflecting transitory factors to be eventually reversed. An application to U.S. post-World War II historical data, from 1948 to 2016, and forecasts, from 2017 to 2027, demonstrates the empirical relevance of the proposed comprehensive approach and helps add new insights to the evaluation of the U.S. fiscal position. In particular, our results suggest that the potentially unsustainable course of U.S. fiscal policy from 2008 onwards, advocated by the use of fiscal indicators, reflects systematic—not cyclical—factors. The main policy implication is that deficit increases in the U.S. from 2008 onwards cannot be regarded as a transitory phenomenon and hence do entail an urgent need for a structural change in the future stance of budgetary policy.     

第二代保险偿付能力监管体系建设初探

2008年金融危机的爆发全面呈现了现行保险偿付能力监管制度体系的不足。我国第一代保险偿付能力监管体系的不足为：对保险公司治理和内部风险控制等偿付能力的影响没有加以考察;对保险公司不同险种偿付能力的要求采取不科学的统一模式;没有对保险公司面临的风险全面评估;没有对分支机构的有力监管;规定不协调、空白和不符合国情的问题。应在合理设计第二代偿付能力监管体系风险识别类型的基础上,实现偿付能力监管体系结果与过程的统一;加强对综合金融保险集团的资本充足率监管;改革现行监管体系不合国情、不协调的问题并弥补监管空白。     

存货规模、房价波动与房地产开发企业风险————基于中国上市房地产开发企业的实证分析

当前住房价格波动背景下的房地产开发企业偿债能力风险水平的问题备受关注。在修正了预售和住房价格变动对存货公允价值影响后可以发现,在2006—2010年住房价格持续上涨的背景下,样本企业的长期偿债能力随着存货规模的扩大而得到增强,但同时也带来了企业短期偿债能力的潜在风险。2011年三季度以来,住房市场调控作用初步显现,住房价格进入下行区间,企业开始有针对性地减持存货,降低资产负债率,具备较强的长期偿债能力,但部分高存货企业仍然可能存在短期偿债能力不足的问题。因此,建议开发企业积极推动去库存化以降低短期偿债风险,同时金融机构和监管部门应密切关注这一潜在问题。     

我国保险公司偿付风险管理效应--基于经济资本配置视角的研究

资本作为保险企业偿付能力的重要决定因素,直接关系着企业的生存与发展,而对于偿付能力的监管自然也成为保险市场的重点。经济资本作为企业虚拟资本的总和,可以实现对企业风险的量化和自有资本的合理配置,有效的经济资本管理可以实现保险企业风险与资本的合理配比,进而提升自身风险应对能力和资本使用效率。我国保险行业要实现与国际接轨,并满足市场转型过程中对经济行为所提出的“灵活、完善”的高标准,必须构建以经济资本为核心的新型、动态风险管理机制。