Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

相互保险的风险识别及创新解决方案——基于TRIZ和TIF理论

相互保险是保险组织形态中非常重要的一种,但是由于信息不对称,相对于其他保险模式而言,同样存在着逆向选择和道德风险问题。传统的监管模式下,监管渗透不够,反制力不强,导致了相互保险无法彻底解决逆向选择和道德风险的治理困境。本文基于塔福域理论和TRIZ理论系统地分析了相互保险模式中存在的风险,并且提出了创新性的解决方案,即构建“保险域”。     

CELEBRATING HETEROGENEITY?: A survey of female ICT professionals in England

This paper introduces key findings from a large-scale, online survey of women in the ICT industry across England undertaken between October 2004 and October 2005. Placed in a theoretical framework which draws on critical perspectives from within information systems (IS), and the sociology of gender and of technology, the authors examine some of the issues faced by female ICT professionals. The context for this paper is the ongoing under-representation of women in the ICT industry in England, and the difficulties that the industry is having retaining women, particularly at senior levels. Data are presented on the demographic composition of women in the ICT industry in England. In addition the authors focus on their management of domestic and caring responsibilities, including changes in working practices they have experienced as a result of these responsibilities. These data are particularly pertinent given current government and industry debates regarding the 'work-life balance' and 'flexible working' in the ICT industry, partially as a response to the need for a more diverse ICT workforce. Alongside information on the career histories of female ICT professionals, the authors review their perceptions of pay and reward packages, working environments, the skills they hold, and the recognition they may or may not receive in their current posts. They present reports of a 'long-hours' and 'presenteeism' culture in the ICT industry, and the existence of gendered informal networks in ICT. They also examine female ICT professionals' perceptions of the current and future-possible image of the industry. The findings highlight the continued masculinization of ICT work, and some of the difficulties faced by women working in what remain statistically and symbolically male-dominated environments.     

供应链风险产生根源的理论分析

根据现有文献研究成果,结合实际调研分析,将供应链风险因素整理归纳为系统风险、供应风险、物流风险、信息风险、财务风险、管理风险、需求风险和环境风险。每种风险因素并非独立存在,而是相互影响、互为根源。其非线性叠加结果将会放大供应链整体风险水平。因此,必须认识到其存在的风险,只有在明确各种风险产生根源的基础上,才能恰当地制定、选择和采取有效措施,规避风险,确保供应链整体绩效稳步提高。     

媒介版图与生态意识

倡导媒介的版图与生态意识,是基于当前国内大众传媒迅猛发展的背景,意在强调在共时空状态下,不同类型不同性质的媒介制品,或者不同类型不同定位的媒介机构有机配置与组合,也就是构建一个富有生机的多样性的媒介生态。在很大程度上,媒介是以整体的舍力而非单一的形式对人实施具体的影响,此项倡导的必要性由此可见一斑。媒介的生态与版图意识还可以帮助梳理、调整当前媒介设置与媒介批评中出现的一些新现象新问题,这正是其紧迫性之所在。     

债务融资、债务结构与公司过度投资行为——来自我国上市公司的经验证据

文章以我国A股市场上市公司为研究对象,实证研究了债务融资对过度投资行为的抑制作用.研究发现:我国上市公司普遍存在着严重的过度投资现象,债务融资及其构成特征整体上并未对公司的过度投资行为起到抑制作用.通过进一步按最终控制人性质分组检验发现,债务融资比例与银行借款在国有控股公司不但没起到抑制过度投资行为的作用,反而还恶化了公司的过度投资行为,债务融资比例与银行借款在非国有控股公司中起到了制约过度投资的作用,商业信用和长短期债务在国有与非国有控股公司中仍没起到制约公司过度投资行为的作用.     

论《统一域名争端解决政策》的若干法律问题

《统一域名争端解决政策》因其时效性、便捷性成为一种国际间广泛接受的庭外域名争端解决机制,同时也为各国的相关立法提供了蓝本。该机制在实践中暴露出一些问题,如政策中的几个关键概念模糊不清,UDRP专家组裁决前后不一致等,为此应当对该政策加以改进。域名争端的根源在于目前的域名注册管理体系与商标的注册管理体系的冲突,要从根本上解决域名争端,必须协调国际域名注册管理体系与国际商标注册管理体系。     

论域名的法律保护

在分析域名的法律特征、法律保护现状的基础上，提出了域名法律保护的三种途径；承认域名权作为民事利益受法律保护的基础保护；肯定域名在一定条件下可以注册为商标的强化保护；对驰名域名提供的特殊法律保护。     

光源与照明专业人才培养

通过对国内外光源与照明行业发展现状的分析研究,结合该专业国内人才培养教育资源分布及该专业人才的需求状况.从如何有利于专业人才培养的角度出发,针对目前专业教育、教学中存在的实际问题,提出了一些改进建议.     

企业经营决策会计理论方法体系之探讨

企业经营决策会计是以系统论、信息论、控制论为理论基础 ,将企业划分为若干个子系统 ,运用现代科学管理设备和技术 ,对企业经营管理所涉及的内外部信息源进行定量分析、计算、对比和评价 ,为企业经营决策提供最佳方案