政府动态奖惩机制下绿色建筑供给侧演化博弈研究

从绿色建筑供给侧角度出发，构建消费者效用函数、开发商利润函数和政府与开发商的演化博弈模型，分析消费者绿色偏好、建筑绿色度、成本等因素对建筑价格、需求和利润的影响以及政府动态奖惩政策下系统的演化稳定策略。结果表明：消费者绿色偏好支付系数和建筑绿色度的增大有利于绿色建筑价格、需求和利润的提高，但高成本却使需求和利润降低；政府采用静态补贴与静态税收政策时，博弈系统不存在演化稳定策略，采用动态补贴与静态税收、静态补贴与动态税收、动态补贴与动态税收三种政策组合时，系统存在演化稳定策略；动态补贴与静态税收的政策组合在推动绿色建筑发展方面优于其他政策；开发商开发绿色建筑的概率与补贴上限值呈负相关，与税收上限值呈正相关。     

金融环境论略

金融业的存在和发展与金融环境之间存在一个极为密切的关系 ,金融环境是金融活动发生和发展的支持系统和资源。金融环境可以被分为内在的外部性和外在的外部性这两个层次。金融环境既包括自然、经济、法律、社会政治等诸多方面 ,同时也包括金融结构、信用关系和金融监管等要素。从金融业的经营状态来判断金融环境的好坏及其变化 ,这有利于治理和保护金融环境 ,营造良好的金融环境。当前需要从法律、市场、信用和宏观经济几个方面改良金融环境。     

唐代淄青镇的特点

平卢淄青镇是唐代的一个重要藩镇,它的建立、灭亡及内部环境都呈现出一定特色:它是由原平卢军南下青齐地区而建,内部稳定,而迅速败亡的原因主要是人民反对割据。     

Markov Properties for Acyclic Directed Mixed Graphs

We consider acyclic directed mixed graphs, in which directed edges ( x → y ) and bi-directed edges ( x ↔ y ) may occur. A simple extension of Pearl's d -separation criterion, called m -separation, is applied to these graphs. We introduce a local Markov property which is equivalent to the global property resulting from the m -separation criterion for arbitrary distributions.     

平面三次微分系统研究综述

本文首先阐明了研究E3的重要意义,然后指出E3的一般性质。奇点的分类与判定极限环线与奇异闭轨的存在性与唯一性,相对位置与代数曲线解．     

Why Frequency is Not Well Defined for Engineering Systems with Nonexponential Failure Times

Dr. Yellman proposes to define frequency as “a time‐rate of events of a specified type over a particular time interval.” We review why no definition of frequency, including this one, can satisfy both of two conditions: (1) the definition should agree with the ordinary meaning of frequency, such as that less frequent events are less likely to occur than more frequent events, over any particular time interval for which the frequencies of both are defined; and (2) the definition should be applicable not only to exponentially distributed times between (or until) events, but also to some nonexponential (e.g., uniformly distributed) times. We make the simple point that no definition can satisfy (1) and (2) by showing that any definition that determines which of any two uniformly distributed times has the higher “frequency” (or that determines that they have the same “frequency,” if neither is higher) must assign a higher frequency number to the distribution with the lower probability of occurrence over some time intervals. Dr. Yellman's proposed phrase, “time‐rate of events … over a particular time interval” is profoundly ambiguous in such cases, as the instantaneous failure rates vary over an infinitely wide range (e.g., from one to infinity), making it unclear which value is denoted by the phrase “time‐rate of events.”     

Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a useful tool to assess complex interconnected systems. This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate‐size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requirements for continuous food supply to community residents and are analyzed efficiently using binary decision diagrams (BDDs). The study also identifies shortcomings in approximate classical system analysis methods in assessing community resilience. Importance factors are utilized to rank the importance of various factors to the overall risk of food insecurity. Finally, the study considers the impact of various sources of uncertainties in the hazard modeling and performance of infrastructure on food security measures. The methodology can be applicable for any existing critical infrastructure system and has potential extensions to other hazards.     

Estimation for seasonal fractional ARIMA with stable innovations via the empirical characteristic function method

Seasonal fractional ARIMA (ARFISMA) model with infinite variance innovations is used in the analysis of seasonal long-memory time series with large fluctuations (heavy-tailed distributions). Two methods, which are the empirical characteristic function (ECF) procedure developed by Knight and Yu [The empirical characteristic function in time series estimation. Econometric Theory. 2002;18:691–721] and the Two-Step method (TSM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of stable ARFISMA model. The ECF method estimates simultaneously all the parameters, while the TSM considers in the first step the Markov Chains Monte Carlo–Whittle approach introduced by Ndongo et al. [Estimation of long-memory parameters for seasonal fractional ARIMA with stable innovations. Stat Methodol. 2010;7:141–151], combined with the maximum likelihood estimation method developed by Alvarez and Olivares [Méthodes d'estimation pour des lois stables avec des applications en finance. Journal de la Société Française de Statistique. 2005;1(4):23–54] in the second step. Monte Carlo simulations are also used to evaluate the finite sample performance of these estimation techniques.     

基于邻避运动视域的中产阶层功能重新审视]——以R市的“核邻避运动”为例

国内学术界将“中产阶层”视为社会政治“稳定—缓冲”器的认知看似符合静态的中国社会结构，但就现实而言，却忽略了转型期中国政治社会情境的复杂性和过渡性。近年来，城市中产业主引发的愈演愈烈的邻避运动，更是挑战这一传统认知。基于R市“核邻避运动”的视域，我们发现中国城市中产阶层的社会政治功能在某一特定时间流下会发生转变，甚至出现了“稳定器”和“动荡器”两个相对立的社会、政治功能。而差别阶层特质、中产精英上台等内部中介机制,以及怨愤情绪生产、政府内部分歧等外部中介机制，是中产阶层社会政治功能演化的深层机制。此外，值得注意的是，由于“身份限制”和“制度限制”的二重性，中产阶层的社会政治功能往往并不会演变为“颠覆—异化”器。