体验型产品消费行为的羊群效应及机理研究——基于电影行业消费行为的实证解释

互联网环境下消费者购买体验型产品时对网络信息的依赖性很大。因此，研究社交媒体影响下体验型产品的消费者决策选择行为具有现实意义。本文以电影行业的票房偏离及消费跟风现象为切入点，探究体验型产品的羊群效应并对其产生的内在机理进行解释。采集艺恩资讯的票房数据以及豆瓣的电影基本信息及影评等数据作为研究样本，从消费者"羊群行为"视角分析其对电影票房的影响。研究发现：在控制了质量等内生性影响之后，消费者羊群效应依然存在；产品特征信息对羊群效应起到了调节作用，从而形成理性跟随；采用预期差异模型可以解释消费者实现理性跟随的过程。研究结论对于电影行业宏观政策制定及对体验型产品合理进行营销推广提供了理论基础与实证依据。     

Does surprise enhance infant memory? Assessing the impact of the encoding context on subsequent object recognition

A discrepancy between what was predicted and what is observed has been linked to increased looking times, changes in brain electrical activity, and increased pupil dilation in infants. These processes associated with heightened attention and readiness to learn might enhance the encoding and memory consolidation of the surprising object, as suggested by both the infant and the adult literature. We therefore investigated whether the presence of surprise during the encoding context enhances subsequent encoding and recognition memory processes for the items that violated infants' expectations. Seventeen-month-olds viewed 20 familiar objects, half of which were labeled correctly, while the other half were mislabeled. Subsequently, infants were presented with a silent recognition memory test where the previously labeled objects appeared along with new images. Pupil dilation was measured, with more dilated pupils indicating (1) surprise during those labeling events where the item was mislabeled and (2) successful retrieval processes during the memory test. Infants responded with more pupil dilation to mislabeling compared to correct labeling. Importantly, despite the presence of a surprise response during mislabeling, infants only differentiated between the previously seen and unseen items at the memory test, offering no evidence that surprise had facilitated the encoding of the mislabeled items.     

论诗性的表现论特征——论诗性之二

诗性作为艺术的原初形态,在本质上是对于常识的回归.在常识的基础上思考那些基本的东西,例如惊奇、激情、想象.诗性的整合意味着回到原初的境界,也即混沌的境界、智慧的境界和"道"的境界.文学所要面对的是我们生活和生命中那些最基本的东西,这些东西是永恒的,并不随着流行时尚而漂浮不定,由此文学便成就了对生命的最高阐释.     

定期公告中的盈余信息与订单流不平衡

采用事件研究的方法, 选取中国A股非金融类上市公司的季度财务报告, 研究了公告前后的订单流不平衡与盈余信息的关系。研究发现:盈余宣告前, 市场上存在盈余信息提前泄漏的现象, 订单流不平衡与盈余信息基本表现为显著正相关;盈余宣告日, 订单流不平衡与盈余信息基本显著正相关;盈余宣告后, 盈余信息需要一段时间才能够融入到交易价格中, 表明中国股票市场尚未达到半强有效市场程度, 之后盈余信息对订单流不平衡不再产生显著影响。同时, 还发现订单流不平衡和盈余信息的关系一定程度上受到订单流不平衡序列自相关性的影响。     

Rethinking Resilience Analytics

The concept of “resilience analytics” has recently been proposed as a means to leverage the promise of big data to improve the resilience of interdependent critical infrastructure systems and the communities supported by them. Given recent advances in machine learning and other data‐driven analytic techniques, as well as the prevalence of high‐profile natural and man‐made disasters, the temptation to pursue resilience analytics without question is almost overwhelming. Indeed, we find big data analytics capable to support resilience to rare, situational surprises captured in analytic models. Nonetheless, this article examines the efficacy of resilience analytics by answering a single motivating question: Can big data analytics help cyber–physical–social (CPS) systems adapt to surprise? This article explains the limitations of resilience analytics when critical infrastructure systems are challenged by fundamental surprises never conceived during model development. In these cases, adoption of resilience analytics may prove either useless for decision support or harmful by increasing dangers during unprecedented events. We demonstrate that these dangers are not limited to a single CPS context by highlighting the limits of analytic models during hurricanes, dam failures, blackouts, and stock market crashes. We conclude that resilience analytics alone are not able to adapt to the very events that motivate their use and may, ironically, make CPS systems more vulnerable. We present avenues for future research to address this deficiency, with emphasis on improvisation to adapt CPS systems to fundamental surprise.     

上市银行实现正向盈余意外的影响因素研究

研究上市银行的盈余管理行为对分析商业银行的安全性、流动性和盈利性均有着非常重要的支撑作用。文章选取2009、2010、2011年上市银行相关数据,使用二分类Logistic回归模型对上市银行实现正向盈余意外的影响因素进行了研究。发现上市银行的资本安全性越低,规模越小;机构持股比例越低,利润水平越高;不良贷款变动率越小,越倾向采取措施实现正向盈余意外。     

重思有灵, 激活思想

文章试图重新思考民族志中有关泛灵论的材料,目的是要理解生命的意义。西方传统理论和受其影响的现代科学理论被确证存在着转换的逻辑：这些理论倾向于认为个体生命是从世界中抽离出来的,是一个有边界的实体。作者试图从＂生生不息＂＂生命存在的关系构造＂以及＂运动的首要地位＂等方面重新思考生命世界的意义,并指涉现代科学的研究。通过区分＂对世界感到惊奇＂与＂对世界感到震撼＂来反思现代科学的不足之处,并提出理解世界的新视角——栖居。     

Surprise,Anticipation, and Sequence Effects in the Design of Experiential Services

The most salient or peak aspect of a service experience often defines customer perceptions of the service. Across two studies, using the same novel form of a scenario‐based experiment, we investigate the design of peak events in a service sequence by testing how anticipated and surprised peaks influence customer perceptions. Study 1 captures the immediate reactions of participants and Study 2 surveys participants a week later. In both studies, we find a main effect for the temporal peak placement, confirming the positive influence of a strong peak ending. When assessing the peak design strategies of surprise and anticipation, we find in Study 1 that surprise and anticipation moderate the temporal peak placement (e.g., early peak vs. late peak) on overall customer perceptions, with the surprise peak at the end of an experience yielding the strongest effect. In Study 2 we see that the remembered experience of a surprise peak positively affects customer perceptions compared to an anticipated peak regardless of the temporal placement of the peak. We also find that the infusion of a surprise peak ending has a lasting effect that amplifies the peak‐end effect of remembered experiences. Drawing on these findings, we discuss the role of surprise, anticipation, and sequence effects in experience design strategy.     

Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise

Many real‐world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info‐gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable‐choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam.