A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance,Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake,Alaska

Harbor seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, are a small, isolated population, and one of only two freshwater populations of harbor seals in the world, yet little is known about their abundance or risk for extinction. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate abundance and trend of this population. Observational models were developed from aerial survey and harvest data, and they included effects for time of year and time of day on survey counts. Underlying models of abundance and trend were based on a Leslie matrix model that used prior information on vital rates from the literature. We developed three scenarios for variability in the priors and used them as part of a sensitivity analysis. The models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The population production rate implied by the vital rate estimates was about 5% per year, very similar to the average annual harvest rate. After a period of growth in the 1980s, the population appears to be relatively stable at around 400 individuals. A population viability analysis assessing the risk of quasi‐extinction, defined as any reduction to 50 animals or below in the next 100 years, ranged from 1% to 3%, depending on the prior scenario. Although this is moderately low risk, it does not include genetic or catastrophic environmental events, which may have occurred to the population in the past, so our results should be applied cautiously.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

美学方法论和艺术本质观--从东、西方古典美学看艺术的审美本质

本文从美学方法论的角度 ,以对东西方古典美学艺术本质观的论述为基础 ,结合当前的文艺实践 ,对艺术本质给予了现时代的规定。本文认为 ,西方古典美学和艺术思想的基本特征 ,是以纯哲学和社会学的方法研究艺术 ,把艺术规定为是一种特殊的认识活动 ,将摹拟、再现、认识看作是艺术的本质特征 ;而中国古典美学则主要是以伦理学与哲学的辩证统一、艺术哲学和艺术心理学相统一的方法观察和研究艺术 ,把情感看作艺术的特质 ,将抒情、写意规定为是艺术的基本特征。东西方古典美学各自在艺术本质问题上的合理性和片面性 ,以及当今东西方艺术发展的趋势 ,说明对艺术本质的思考和探求 ,既不能单纯执着于表现主义 ,也不能固守于理智主义 ,而是应该扬弃其各自的片面性 ,对东西方古典美学的艺术本质观 ,在现时代的规定下进行辩证的综合     

《红楼梦》与《金瓶梅》不同的"情""淫"观

《红楼梦》和《金瓶梅》分别具有“重情戒淫”和“重淫轻情”两种不同的美学观 ,这两种不同的美学观使两书呈现出完全不同的风貌 ,这两种不同美学观的形成既是明清两代不同时代风尚影响的结果 ,也与曹雪芹和兰陵笑笑生具有高下有别的艺术修养和审美旨趣有关。     

论创新教育的主要内容

创新 ,已经成为我们时代的重要话题。创新教育从来没有像今天这样迫在眉睫。反思传统教育的弊端 ,创新教育的主要内容应当是 :思维教育 ,培养创新智能 ;情感教育 ,塑造创新人格 ;审美教育 ,营设创新境界 ;实践教育 ,锻炼创新能力     

从“知识考古”到“美学解救”——论现代“人”的福柯式解构

笛卡尔以来，主体问题始终是现代哲学最为核心的问题。但是，从哲学的语言论转向开始，主体已经声名狼藉，主体哲学的范式被视为陈腐过时了，传统的主体之争已经没有意义，无论语言是第一位，或者自我意识的个体优先，这两个范式中的任何一个都凸现和遮蔽着什么，将这两者联系起来或者寻找一种介于这两种范式之间的思路倒是可能的，如米歇尔福柯之路。     

从译者的审美意识谈文学作品中非规范语音的翻译

文学翻译特别需要译者的审美意识 ,需要作为审美主体的译者发挥创造性和主观能动性。翻译的过程就是原文的审美再现过程。文学作品的翻译要忠实地译出人物的语言特色 ,再现原文的生动形象。语言的常规优美固然重要 ,但正如残缺美也是美一样 ,在文学作品中 ,人物的非规范语言也是一种美 ,因为它有助于烘托生动活泼的人物形象。因此 ,在翻译中要忠实再现 ,否则会影响译文的准确性、生动性     

制造企业生存和发展的推动力--技术创新

技术创新是制造企业发展的原动力和核心竞争力.培养员工的创新精神,营造有利于创新的企业文化环境,制定符合制造企业发展要求的创新策略,建立鼓励创新的管理机制和创新能力评价体系是提高制造企业创新能力的关键.     

对“叔本华的悲观主义美学”之说的质疑

国内学术界习惯使用的“叔本华的悲观主义美学”说法是值得质疑的。应该把叔本华的美学和他的形而上学及伦理学原则分开来考察,“悲观主义”一词只能用在他的形而上的观点上,而在美学观上,叔本华的“解脱论”根本是“乐观主义”的。叔本华并不主张自杀,他只对自杀作逻辑上推论,并非用在现实经验层面上。“悲观”和“乐观”是个不明确的述语,应该加以限制和说明,用“唯情主义”来指称叔本华的美学也许妥帖些。     

人的自由活动与实践美学的意义

实践美学从历史唯物主义出发 ,指出了美感和美是社会历史实践的产物。它是一种凸现了人、人的活动、人的自由活动的美学。在理论上 ,实践美学顺应历史的潮流 ,宣告了形而上学的终结 ,走出了古典主义的二元对立思维模式 ;在现实上 ,实践美学针对时代的虚无 ,高扬人的旗帜 ,为美学研究开辟了一片新的天地。