A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance,Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake,Alaska

Harbor seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, are a small, isolated population, and one of only two freshwater populations of harbor seals in the world, yet little is known about their abundance or risk for extinction. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate abundance and trend of this population. Observational models were developed from aerial survey and harvest data, and they included effects for time of year and time of day on survey counts. Underlying models of abundance and trend were based on a Leslie matrix model that used prior information on vital rates from the literature. We developed three scenarios for variability in the priors and used them as part of a sensitivity analysis. The models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The population production rate implied by the vital rate estimates was about 5% per year, very similar to the average annual harvest rate. After a period of growth in the 1980s, the population appears to be relatively stable at around 400 individuals. A population viability analysis assessing the risk of quasi‐extinction, defined as any reduction to 50 animals or below in the next 100 years, ranged from 1% to 3%, depending on the prior scenario. Although this is moderately low risk, it does not include genetic or catastrophic environmental events, which may have occurred to the population in the past, so our results should be applied cautiously.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

坚持尊重社会发展规律与尊重人民历史主体地位的一致性——关于党的根本宗旨的哲学思考

把握党的根本宗旨 ,只有从历史规律实现的特殊性上理解人民的历史主体性与从人民的历史主体性上把握历史发展的规律的统一中 ,从马克思主义真理观是与价值观的统一中 ,才能深刻理解“党要始终代表中国最广大人民的根本利益”的真理性 ;实践党的根本宗旨 ,必须在坚持尊重社会发展规律与尊重人民历史主体地位的一致性的基础上 ,坚持为崇高理想奋斗与为最广大人民谋利益的一致性 ,坚持完成党的各项工作与实现人民利益的一致性 ,坚持一切为了人民群众与一切依靠人民群众的一致性。     

论唐湜的诗歌理论

唐湜诗歌评论的理论价值主要凸现在三个方面:一是在新诗的形式问题上,主张寓自由于格律之中,通过节奏与韵律来制约自由化,把自由化与格律化辩证统一起来;二是在新诗的审美追求上,认为新诗诗美的化境是走向意象的凝定;三是对诗歌含蓄美的倡导和肯定。这三个方面对于新诗的建设至今仍有现实意义。     

电子商务立法的国际比较及对我国的启示

电子商务的迅速发展实质性地改变了传统市场交易的形式。而作为法律调整和规范的主要对象之一，交易形式的变化要求有新的法律规定与之相适应。在国际上，关于电子商务的立法活动已经形成了一种浪潮。而我国的电子商务立法工作却一直进展缓慢。其中有认识上的问题，更主要的是立法经验的不足。借鉴有关国家电子商务立法的先进经验，我国应当尽快建立和完善电子商务法制，这其中包括应当建立关于电子签名、电子商务认证、电子合同、电子支付等方面的法律规则与制度。     

制造企业生存和发展的推动力--技术创新

技术创新是制造企业发展的原动力和核心竞争力.培养员工的创新精神,营造有利于创新的企业文化环境,制定符合制造企业发展要求的创新策略,建立鼓励创新的管理机制和创新能力评价体系是提高制造企业创新能力的关键.     

企业会计模式的构建

现代企业制度是市场经济的基础,它要求建立与之相适应的会计模式.会计模式的建立受经济环境的制约,又要解决实际问题.在此分析的基础上,重点从客观经济环境和企业特点出发,从会计管理制度制定,会计信息系统设置和会计监督机制建立三大方面构建企业会计模式.     

高校实验室管理与评估

本文阐述了在评估工作的推动下 ,如何加强对实验人员队伍建设、建立和完善各种规章制度的管理 ,并对实验室评估工作做了科学的总结。     

一个中国知识分子的仕士适——《顾准文集》读后

通过顾准的人生境遇分析中国知识分子为官、为儒的命运 ,提出 :官有官道 ,文有文道 ;当代中国知识分子有追求 ,更有窘迫 ;思想大师来自于苦难和冷清 ;思想让人成为人     

政府法令与民间惯行:以国民政府颁行"年利20%"为中心

南京国民政府实行年利率不得超过 2 0 %的法令 ,但这一法令仅在个别地区有些微作用 ,总体来说始终处于“表达”层面 ,而无“实践”意义 ,乡村借贷在很大程度上仍受着传统惯行而非国家法律的支配 ,高利贷横行的格局一直未曾根本改变。也就是说 ,在离开高利贷农村社会经济就无法运转的历史条件下 ,仅靠一纸行政命令是不可能消灭高利贷的 ,在现代农村金融建立和健全以前 ,高利贷仍有生存和发展的空间 ,甚至与现代农村金融是相辅相成的