探析“隧道效应”在社会治理中的应用

当前在我国经济社会发展不平衡的背景下,社会治理已经并将长期面临新的形势和新的挑战。在这些挑战和问题面前,我们如何通过对我国社会治理状况的深入分析,深化对社会管理规律和特点的认识,不断地进行理论创新,找到建设中国特色社会治理体系应遵循的基本原则,探索适合我国国情的社会治理体制机制,提高社会治理的能力和水平。本文从一个经济学的概念——"隧道效应"出发,将其引入到社会治理的研究中来,分析"隧道效应"发生背后的文化逻辑,并从社会的角度来分析这种正的隧道效应是否可以持续及其政策建议。     

Robust Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling of time to positivity in tuberculosis trials

Early phase 2 tuberculosis (TB) trials are conducted to characterize the early bactericidal activity (EBA) of anti‐TB drugs. The EBA of anti‐TB drugs has conventionally been calculated as the rate of decline in colony forming unit (CFU) count during the first 14 days of treatment. The measurement of CFU count, however, is expensive and prone to contamination. Alternatively to CFU count, time to positivity (TTP), which is a potential biomarker for long‐term efficacy of anti‐TB drugs, can be used to characterize EBA. The current Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects (NLME) regression model for TTP data, however, lacks robustness to gross outliers that often are present in the data. The conventional way of handling such outliers involves their identification by visual inspection and subsequent exclusion from the analysis. However, this process can be questioned because of its subjective nature. For this reason, we fitted robust versions of the Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects regression model to a wide range of TTP datasets. The performance of the explored models was assessed through model comparison statistics and a simulation study. We conclude that fitting a robust model to TTP data obviates the need for explicit identification and subsequent “deletion” of outliers but ensures that gross outliers exert no undue influence on model fits. We recommend that the current practice of fitting conventional normal theory models be abandoned in favor of fitting robust models to TTP data.     

浅埋大跨黄土隧道下穿公路方案比选

以大跨黄土隧道下穿公路安全施工为背景,对隧道下穿公路的安全施工方案进行研究。基于公路路面破损指数与下穿公路施工风险事件引起路面最大沉降之间的关系确定了隧道下穿施工可能引起的路面最大允许沉降量,并据此制定出施工管理基准,对比分析了CRD和CD法引起的隧道拱顶沉降、地表最大沉降、支护受力和隧道周边地层塑性区特征,建议采用CD法进行下穿施工。下穿孙辛路施工监测结果表明,采用CD法保证了隧道施工安全和孙辛路的正常通行。     

A new heavy-tailed distribution defined on the bounded interval: the logit slash distribution and its application

This paper proposes a new heavy-tailed and alternative slash type distribution on a bounded interval via a relation of a slash random variable with respect to the standard logistic function to model the real data set with skewed and high kurtosis which includes the outlier observation. Some basic statistical properties of the newly defined distribution are studied. We derive the maximum likelihood, least-square, and weighted least-square estimations of its parameters. We assess the performance of the estimators of these estimation methods by the simulation study. Moreover, an application to real data demonstrates that the proposed distribution can provide a better fit than well-known bounded distributions in the literature when the skewed data set with high kurtosis contains the outlier observations.     

双液注浆锚管加固在渗水软弱围岩浅埋偏压隧道中的应用

通过乌坑坝隧道北京端左线冲沟地段的施工实例，介绍渗水软弱围岩浅埋偏压隧道地表双液注浆锚管加固的施工方法，并对加固效果及其优缺点进行分析．     

Influence of Safety Measures on the Risks of Transporting Dangerous Goods Through Road Tunnels

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models are used to estimate the risks of transporting dangerous goods and to assess the merits of introducing alternative risk reduction measures for different transportation scenarios and assumptions. A comprehensive QRA model recently was developed in Europe for application to road tunnels. This model can assess the merits of a limited number of "native safety measures." In this article, we introduce a procedure for extending its scope to include the treatment of a number of important "nonnative safety measures" of interest to tunnel operators and decisionmakers. Nonnative safety measures were not included in the original model specification. The suggested procedure makes use of expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation methods to model uncertainty in the revised risk estimates. The results of a case study application are presented that involve the risks of transporting a given volume of flammable liquid through a 10-km road tunnel.     

新吉坪隧道斜井进正洞挑顶施工技术研究

沪昆铁路客运专线新吉坪隧道所处地质条件复杂，区域地质作用剧烈，碳酸岩分布广泛，不良地质特别发育。针对斜井进正洞施工，提出了纵向爬坡导坑法。并以2#斜井为例，介绍了纵向爬坡导坑法施工工艺和斜井进正洞挑顶施工的控制要点，以及在施工过程中的控制量测方法，为新吉坪隧道斜井进正洞挑顶施工提供了技术指导，为类似工程施工提供参考。     

寒区隧道衬砌背部空洞积水冻胀力学分析

造成高寒地区隧道冻害的原因有很多方面，如衬砌混凝土的冰冻破坏、局部存水冻胀破坏以及既有裂缝裂隙水的冻胀破坏等。以鹧鸪山隧道为工程背景，通过有限元软件ANSYS对隧道衬砌背后局部存水冻胀产生的应力进行计算分析，说明这种局部存水空间冻胀对隧道衬砌可能造成破坏原因，为寒区隧道的抗防冻措施提供理论依据。     

地下铁道由区间隧道扩挖三联拱隧道施工技术

北京地下铁道某地下区间设计有一段大断面三联拱隧道，由于受开挖工作面的限制，采取从区间隧道扩挖的施工方案。拟定了双侧壁导坑法结合CRD工法施工的方案；采用FLAC模拟该断面施工顺序，确定每步开挖工序产生的沉降值，制定了施工控制标准；介绍了该断面初期支护参数、由区间标准断面转换到三连拱隧道的工法及工程效果。建立的分步控制沉降的施工控制模式，有利于控制每一步序沉降值；三联拱隧道段沉降、变形稳定，满足施工控制值的要求。     

IPv6及其在WIN2000下的实现研究

阐述了IPv6的基本原理 ,详细说明了在WIN2 0 0 0操作系统环境下 ,如何进行IPv6网络实现的实验研究。