Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

相互保险的风险识别及创新解决方案——基于TRIZ和TIF理论

相互保险是保险组织形态中非常重要的一种,但是由于信息不对称,相对于其他保险模式而言,同样存在着逆向选择和道德风险问题。传统的监管模式下,监管渗透不够,反制力不强,导致了相互保险无法彻底解决逆向选择和道德风险的治理困境。本文基于塔福域理论和TRIZ理论系统地分析了相互保险模式中存在的风险,并且提出了创新性的解决方案,即构建“保险域”。     

犯罪对象新议

传统刑法理论认为,犯罪对象也即行为对象,是指犯罪行为直接作用的具体的人或物。而从价值哲学的角度分析,犯罪对象和行为对象应是两个不同的概念。即:犯罪对象是指受犯罪行为侵犯而为犯罪构成所必备的能表现犯罪客体的事物,而行为对象则指犯罪行为直接作用或指向的说明行为完整性的自然存在的人或物。     

CELEBRATING HETEROGENEITY?: A survey of female ICT professionals in England

This paper introduces key findings from a large-scale, online survey of women in the ICT industry across England undertaken between October 2004 and October 2005. Placed in a theoretical framework which draws on critical perspectives from within information systems (IS), and the sociology of gender and of technology, the authors examine some of the issues faced by female ICT professionals. The context for this paper is the ongoing under-representation of women in the ICT industry in England, and the difficulties that the industry is having retaining women, particularly at senior levels. Data are presented on the demographic composition of women in the ICT industry in England. In addition the authors focus on their management of domestic and caring responsibilities, including changes in working practices they have experienced as a result of these responsibilities. These data are particularly pertinent given current government and industry debates regarding the 'work-life balance' and 'flexible working' in the ICT industry, partially as a response to the need for a more diverse ICT workforce. Alongside information on the career histories of female ICT professionals, the authors review their perceptions of pay and reward packages, working environments, the skills they hold, and the recognition they may or may not receive in their current posts. They present reports of a 'long-hours' and 'presenteeism' culture in the ICT industry, and the existence of gendered informal networks in ICT. They also examine female ICT professionals' perceptions of the current and future-possible image of the industry. The findings highlight the continued masculinization of ICT work, and some of the difficulties faced by women working in what remain statistically and symbolically male-dominated environments.     

论英语语言课程设计中的需求分析

界定需求要从目标和目的两个方面进行,这两个方面是我们发展测试、材料、教学活动、评价策略的基础。因此需求分析是语言课程建设不可分割的一部分。本文重点介绍了英语语言课程设计中需求分析的方法及步骤。目的在于强调需求分析的重要性,以及需求分析对于教师改进教学方法、提高教学效果、提高学生学习的主动性和积极性的重要意义。     

媒介版图与生态意识

倡导媒介的版图与生态意识,是基于当前国内大众传媒迅猛发展的背景,意在强调在共时空状态下,不同类型不同性质的媒介制品,或者不同类型不同定位的媒介机构有机配置与组合,也就是构建一个富有生机的多样性的媒介生态。在很大程度上,媒介是以整体的舍力而非单一的形式对人实施具体的影响,此项倡导的必要性由此可见一斑。媒介的生态与版图意识还可以帮助梳理、调整当前媒介设置与媒介批评中出现的一些新现象新问题,这正是其紧迫性之所在。     

论《统一域名争端解决政策》的若干法律问题

《统一域名争端解决政策》因其时效性、便捷性成为一种国际间广泛接受的庭外域名争端解决机制,同时也为各国的相关立法提供了蓝本。该机制在实践中暴露出一些问题,如政策中的几个关键概念模糊不清,UDRP专家组裁决前后不一致等,为此应当对该政策加以改进。域名争端的根源在于目前的域名注册管理体系与商标的注册管理体系的冲突,要从根本上解决域名争端,必须协调国际域名注册管理体系与国际商标注册管理体系。     

论域名的法律保护

在分析域名的法律特征、法律保护现状的基础上，提出了域名法律保护的三种途径；承认域名权作为民事利益受法律保护的基础保护；肯定域名在一定条件下可以注册为商标的强化保护；对驰名域名提供的特殊法律保护。     

湖南省省属高校经常性财政拨款新模式构建研究

经过近几年来高校管理体制的大幅度调整变化,目前湖南省省属高校所采用的经常性财政拨款方案已不能适应新形式的需要。成为适时之需,构建一种公平合理、简单有效的新模式,既发挥财政拨款在高教事业中的基础作用,又引导高校不断提高办学效益。     

陕西林业战略规划目标体系分类及战略态势研究

按照科学、合理、适用的原则 ,结合林业重点工程建设的内外部环境因素 ,把陕西林业战略规划目标分为 1 5个项目 ,并区分为重要、次重要、一般、不需要 4个层次。通过分析各项目所处的内外部条件 ,明确战略实施者可采取紧缩型、稳定型和增长型的战略并实施不同的战略态势组合