A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

‘There Oughtta Be a Law Against Bitches’: Masculinity Lessons in Police Academy Training

This article draws on participant observation in a law enforcement academy to demonstrate how a hidden curriculum encourages aspects of hegemonic masculinity among recruits. Academy training teaches female and male recruits that masculinity is an essential requirement for the practice of policing and that women do not belong. By watching and learning from instructors and each other, male students developed a form of masculinity that (1) excluded women students and exaggerated differences between them and men; and (2) denigrated women in general. Thus, the masculinity that is characteristic of police forces and is partly responsible for women’s low representation on them is not produced exclusively on the job, but is taught in police academies as a subtext of professional socialization.     

城市道路交通问题与对策探讨

从中国大城市交通堵塞现象着手,研究了机动车辆的增加与道路通行能力的关系,以及机动车迅速增长所带来的环境污染问题,分析了问题产生的原固及其危害程度,探讨改善城市交通的途径和解决的方案,提出适当限制个人轿车,积极发展轨道交通,规划建设中心网络城市的现点。     

传统科技视野下的恐怖主义及其应对

科学技术的发展及其被恶意运用,使当代的恐怖主义活动变得更加复杂多样和令人恐慌.掌握和使用高科技的超级恐怖主义组织的确存在,但对于一般恐怖分子而言,高科技的运用还不大现实.多数情况下,都是传统通用科技引导着普通的恐怖主义活动.恐怖活动与传统通用科技相伴发展的历史事实,表明传统通用科技对恐怖主义与反击恐怖主义双重力量扩张所起的作用,具体体现在武器技术、交通运输和通信技术的应用等方面.科学技术既是恐怖主义盛行的因素,也是恐怖主义的克星,运用高科技手段反击恐怖主义也是我们的必然选择.     

A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

基于就业态势分析的交通运输专业人才培养思路调整方案

高校本科专业的就业发展态势反映了社会需求的变化趋势。高校专业教育的人才培养目标必须也只能与社会需求进行模糊的、大范围的对接。交通运输专业要实现这种对接,应当以综合交通运输理念为指导,强化在运输组织管理领域的传统优势,拓展运输经济、技术管理等专业内涵,按综合交通运输体系的要求修订人才培养目标,制定开放式的专业培养计划和网络化的课程体系,在实验、实习、毕业设计等环节强调职业化训练。     

基于可达性的用户最优动态交通配流模型研究

以多种已有模型为基础，建立了动态配流流量细化原则，并依据这一原则，在避免估算路段走行时间的情况下构造了一个改进的新模型．该模型的解释性强，具有全局收敛性，并考虑了距离不同带来的可达性的影响．在对该模型最优解条件的充要性进行说明的同时，对新模型的择路机理也予以了推证．     

公安文学中的扁形人物和圆形人物

公安文学中的人物形象由扁平人物过渡到中间人物,由中闻人物过渡到圆形人物,满足了不同读者的审美需求, 这是公安文学兴盛的标志,代表先进文化的前进方向。     

对我国行政诉讼调解制度的反思与构建

行政诉讼中不适用调解几乎成为众口一词的铁律,究其原因是行政权的不可处分性、高权性及命令性。本文对行政诉讼不适用调解这一问题从理论及实践角度进行思考,认为我国行政诉讼中应建立调解制度,并在借鉴国外诉讼调解制度经验的基础上,对我国行政诉讼调解制度的构建提出自己的设想。     

一种基于MPLS业务量工程的选路机制

分析了诸如受限路由等传统QoS路由机制业务震荡现象出现的原因给出了呼叫级QoS路由和分组级QoS路由的概念在此基础上提出了多标签QoS路由机制(MLR)作为一种分组级QoS路由机制多标签QoS路由机制不仅能够从理论上避免业务震荡现象的出现同时由于采用了业务量工程的业务均衡的思想从而提高了全网的业务性能指标仿真的数据结果可以在同时运行实时业务和非实时业务下得到