社会民主主义复兴的两种模式比较

20世纪90年代在社会民主主义复兴的过程中,英国和法国由于竞选方式、政策策略等一系列方面存在显著差别,被认为是社会民主主义复兴的两种典型模式,对英国道路与法国道路的相同之处和不同之处进行比较,说明二者存在共同性和差异性的原因。     

统一规制经济垄断与行政垄断的必要性与紧迫性

我国反垄断法所应规制的垄断一直是一个众说纷纭的问题。本文从经济垄断和行政垄断的共性的角度 ,提出了我国反垄断法应统一规制经济垄断和行政垄断。这不仅是建立社会主义市场经济的需要 ,也是我国入世后的必然要求     

面向21世纪“两课“教学总体研究

2 1世纪 ,复杂多变的国际国内形势 ,给“两课”教学带来前所未有的挑战。鉴于此 ,面向新世纪的“两课”教学总体研究势在必行。研究范围包括深化“两课”教学内容、完善课程体系、建全学科体系、改革教学方法、加强师资队伍建设等多个方面     

Type I error rates from likelihood‐based repeated measures analyses of incomplete longitudinal data

The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach is commonly utilized to handle missing values in the primary analysis of clinical trials. However, recent evidence suggests that likelihood‐based analyses developed under the missing at random (MAR) framework are sensible alternatives. The objective of this study was to assess the Type I error rates from a likelihood‐based MAR approach – mixed‐model repeated measures (MMRM) – compared with LOCF when estimating treatment contrasts for mean change from baseline to endpoint (Δ). Data emulating neuropsychiatric clinical trials were simulated in a 4 × 4 factorial arrangement of scenarios, using four patterns of mean changes over time and four strategies for deleting data to generate subject dropout via an MAR mechanism. In data with no dropout, estimates of Δ and SE_Δ from MMRM and LOCF were identical. In data with dropout, the Type I error rates (averaged across all scenarios) for MMRM and LOCF were 5.49% and 16.76%, respectively. In 11 of the 16 scenarios, the Type I error rate from MMRM was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate of 5.00% than the corresponding rate from LOCF. In no scenario did LOCF yield a Type I error rate that was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate than the corresponding rate from MMRM. The average estimate of SE_Δ from MMRM was greater in data with dropout than in complete data, whereas the average estimate of SE_Δ from LOCF was smaller in data with dropout than in complete data, suggesting that standard errors from MMRM better reflected the uncertainty in the data. The results from this investigation support those from previous studies, which found that MMRM provided reasonable control of Type I error even in the presence of MNAR missingness. No universally best approach to analysis of longitudinal data exists. However, likelihood‐based MAR approaches have been shown to perform well in a variety of situations and are a sensible alternative to the LOCF approach. MNAR methods can be used within a sensitivity analysis framework to test the potential presence and impact of MNAR data, thereby assessing robustness of results from an MAR method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling heterogeneous space–time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis

Summary. Earthquake intensities are modelled as a function of previous activity whose specific form is based on established empirical laws in seismology, but whose parameter values can vary from place to place. This model is used for characterizing regional features of seismic activities in and around Japan, and also for exploring regions where the actual seismicity rate systematically deviates from that of the modelled rate.     

“两个必然”和“两个决不会”的内在统一

对于马克思主义“两个必然”和“两个决不会”的关系存在着“补充论”、“修正论”、“取代论”的不同观点。“两个必然”和“两个决不会”的科学论断都是社会基本矛盾运动规律的体现,二者是内在的高度统一的理论。就资本主义社会发展趋势而言,“两个决不会”具有相对性,是“两个必然”的内在要求,“两个必然”理论中包含着“两个决不会”思想,是“两个决不会”运动的最终结果。     

从人道主义向自然主义迈进的福克纳——读《我弥留之际》

美国南方流派的代表作家威廉·福克纳是一位实验性的作家,在他的文学生涯中,他做过多种尝试,他的早期长篇小说《我弥留之际》是其中非常重要的一次。这部作品的创作思想显示福克纳在上世纪30年代从人道主义向自然主义迈进。     

近二十年中国汉民族起源、形成研究综述(二)

汉民族是我国乃至世界上最大的民族 ,而关于汉民族的研究 ,长期以来却被国内学术界所忽视 ,汉民族史常被淹没在通史和断代史研究之中。十一届三中全会后 ,汉民族研究如雨后春笋 ,一直在不断地兴旺勃发。特别是近二十年来 ,汉民族研究取得了蔚为壮观的成绩 ,为世人瞩目。     

关于改进我国天然气管输定价方式的探讨

探索了我国现行天然气管输运价形成机制严重背离天然气市场发育的弊端，进而提出与国际接轨的建议，即通过分别确定管输企业年度应收服务费和按两部制设计用户运价率来制定管输价格。     

刘少奇两种教育制度思想发展的内在逻辑——以天津半工半读教育发展为参照

学术界对刘少奇的两种教育制度思想已从多方面进行了研究 ,取得很多成果。但对他的两种教育制度思想深化发展的内在逻辑却研究不足。文章以当时刘少奇非常关心的天津半工半读教育发展为参照 ,从天津半工半读教育发展与刘少奇两种教育制度思想发展变化的互动关系中 ,探求刘少奇的两种教育制度思想发展的内在逻辑