Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Post-Earthquake Ignition Probabilities Considering Inter-Earthquake Heterogeneity

Post-earthquake fires are high-consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low-frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post-earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source data. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter-earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post-earthquake fires. Thus, the present study analyzes the post-earthquake ignition probabilities of five major earthquakes in Japan from 1995 to 2016 (1995 Kobe, 2003 Tokachi-oki, 2004 Niigata–Chuetsu, 2011 Tohoku, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes) by a hierarchical Bayesian approach. As the ignition causes of earthquakes share a certain commonality, common prior distributions were assigned to the parameters, and samples were drawn from the target posterior distribution of the parameters by a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the hierarchical model were comparatively analyzed with those of pooled and independent models. Although the pooled and hierarchical models were both robust in comparison with the independent model, the pooled model underestimated the ignition probabilities of earthquakes with few data samples. Among the tested models, the hierarchical model was least affected by the source-to-source variability in the data. The heterogeneity of post-earthquake ignitions with different regional and seasonal characteristics has long been desired in the modeling of post-earthquake ignition probabilities but has not been properly considered in the existing approaches. The presented hierarchical Bayesian approach provides a systematic and rational framework to effectively cope with this problem, which consequently enhances the statistical reliability and stability of estimating post-earthquake ignition probabilities.     

由驹子、陈白露形象比较川端康成与曹禺的悲剧意识

驹子、陈白露分别是川端康成、曹禺悲剧作品中具有代表性的女性形象 ,她们都倾注了作家对悲剧人物的挚爱 ,呈现出美的韵味 ,但是由于两位作家在对待人生、社会的态度 ,在对待“悲”与“美”的关系上存在着认识上的根本差别 ,从而使其悲剧有着不同的内涵 ,即 :川端康成是“既悲且美 ,悲美同在” ,曹禺是“因悲而美 ,悲美相映”     

麦尔维尔海洋小说到悲剧小说转变的成因分析

美国作家麦尔维尔在文学创作上从前期海洋小说到后期悲剧小说的转变是显而易见的,不论在风格体裁,艺术特色还是创作主题,尤其是创作的深度和广度等方面都存在巨大差异.研究发现,麦尔维尔思想的二次成长最终促成了这一转变.本文从麦尔维尔在好那陆陆的生活经历,与霍桑短暂却火热的友谊,以及对莎士比亚和卡莱尔作品的广泛阅读三个方面研究麦尔维尔思想的二次成长,从而说明麦尔维尔思想的二次成长从根本上促成了其从前期海洋小说到后期悲剧小说的巨大转变,把麦尔维尔的创作从深度和广度上都大大向前推进了一步.     

一种嵌入式GUI软件结构实现方案

综合比较了嵌入式GUI的几种实现方式,结合嵌入式系统的特点,研究了嵌入式GUI中的关键技术,分析了嵌入式GUI与普通GUI系统的不同之处,提出一种通用的嵌入式图形用户界面系统的设计思想和体系结构,这种嵌入式GUI实现方案具有轻型、占用资源少、可剪裁等特点。     

贾府的道教风俗及其“悲凉之雾”

道教的消灾祈祥法术在文学巨著《红楼梦》中得到了充分的展现:在贾府,无论主子或奴婢,有的佩戴护身符欲消灾避祸,“仙寿恒昌”;有的炼丹烧汞欲升为神仙;有的打醮设道场欲解除冤孽;有的作法欲诅咒他人等。然而,那些欲消灾者病缠身,欲成仙者命早亡,欲害人者先害己,落了个烟消云散的悲惨结局,无不笼罩着浓重的“悲凉之雾”。撩起悲凉的雾纱,可以窥探出曹雪芹对道教“助教化”无望又找不到“补天”良策的彷徨苦闷心情。曲曲悲歌实际是曹雪芹对道教信仰及其法术失灵的形象化宣泄和标示。     

论唐君毅的中国悲剧观

唐君毅的中国悲剧观经过早期和后期两个阶段,早期认为中国缺乏悲剧,后期认为中国悲剧是不同于西方悲剧的独特悲剧,是一种悲剧而又超悲剧。中国最高的悲剧意识及超悲剧意识,这种超悲剧意识可以称为中国文学的最高境界。     

从呐喊到流言--鲁迅与张爱玲相同点之比较

鲁迅和张爱玲分别是主流文学和非主流文学的代表,他们之间存在着某些共同之处。二者在现代文学史上都被无情地扭曲了,一个是“红色经典”,现代文学的奠基人,被误读的大师;一个是个人主义的“靡靡之音”,长期被排斥在文学史之外。二者对人性的弱点都有深刻的了解和体会,在探讨现代人的生存处境时表现出深刻的悲剧精神。此外他们的创作都显示出相当成熟的象征印象主义与写实主义相调和的审美追求。     

黑娃：大起大落的悲剧形象－－《白鹿原》人物论之三

黑娃是《白鹿原》中的主要人物之一,是作品成功刻画的一个命运大起大落的悲剧形象。这一人物形象的悲剧性主要表现在两个方面:其一,混入革命队伍中的丑恶势力对其生命的毁灭;其二,儒教传统对其叛逆性格的消解。     

动结式的事件结构和句法生成

在语言使用过程中,动结式逐渐被语法化成表示致使—结果的特定语法形式,被语法化了的不是具体的词汇单位,而是一种语法结构或构式,即任何两个没有语义关联的动词只要并列出现在一个句子里就会形成致使—结果的语义关系。动结式里的两个动词各自表示一个事件,每个事件都能表述为一个独立的句子,通过移位和融合等句法操作合并在一起,临时构成独立的动词单位,从而在句法上把分别表示不同事件的两个句子合并为一个,实现表达的简约性。因为题元指派首先在底层结构完成,而动结式是表层句法操作的结果,所以动结式的语义关系仍需回到合并前的两个句子里确认。这种追根溯源的底层结构解释,清晰地揭示了动结式表层所呈现的复杂的句法和语义关系,是一种对于动结式的句法派生和形成机制提出的全新看法。     

Pharmacovigilance in Clinical Trials: Current Practice and Challenges

In view of the MENA increasing participation in multinational trials and the increasing number of national/regional trials, this article explores potential areas of pharmacovigilance, requiring reform and provides recommendations for building a robust safety reporting system. Regulatory silence on expedited reporting requirements creates confusion for local sites that are part of multinational trials. Not allowing waiver for serious adverse events that are protocol specified or are study endpoints, along with lack of emphasis on causality as reporting criteria, adds substantial burden of uninformative cases for regulatory review. Despite global focus on Development Safety Update Report, local regulators are not yet insistent on real-time update of a drug’s cumulative safety profile. Issues like reporting requirements for generic trials, pregnancy reporting and lenient timeline for death/life-threatening events need attention. Finally, the need to formulate an all-encompassing local pharmacovigilance guideline, in sync with global practice cannot be overemphasized.