Scheduling Updates of Probabilistic Risk Assessments: The Arkansas Nuclear One-Unit 1 Experience

This paper presents the results of a study that identified how often a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)should be updated to accommodate the changes that take place at nuclear power plants. Based on a 7-year analysis of design and procedural changes at one plant, we consider 5 years to be the maximum interval for updating PRAs. This conclusion is preliminary because it is based on the review of changes that occurred at a single plant, and it addresses only PRAs that involve a Level 1 analysis (i.e., a PRA including calculation of core damage frequency only). Nevertheless, this conclusion indicates that maintaining a useful PRA requires periodic updating efforts. However, the need for this periodic update stems only partly from the number of changes that can be expected to take place at nuclear power plants–changes that individually have only a moderate to minor impact on the PRA, but whose combined impact is substantial and necessitates a PRA update. Additionally, a comparison of two generations of PRAs performed about 5 years apart indicates that PRAs must be periodically updated to reflect the evolution of PRA methods. The most desirable updating interval depends on these two technical considerations as well as the cost of updating the PRA. (Cost considerations, however, were beyond the scope of this study.)     

高新技术创新的文化路径及政策选择

相对一般的技术创新，高新技术创新有其独有的一些特点，这些特点决定了文化对高新技术创新具有重要作用。高新技术创新的文化路径包括观念文化路径、制度文化路径和行动文化路径三个方面。基于文化视角优化高新技术创新的政策选择，完善我国科技政策，有助于推动高新技术的进一步创新。     

Pharmacovigilance in Clinical Trials: Current Practice and Challenges

In view of the MENA increasing participation in multinational trials and the increasing number of national/regional trials, this article explores potential areas of pharmacovigilance, requiring reform and provides recommendations for building a robust safety reporting system. Regulatory silence on expedited reporting requirements creates confusion for local sites that are part of multinational trials. Not allowing waiver for serious adverse events that are protocol specified or are study endpoints, along with lack of emphasis on causality as reporting criteria, adds substantial burden of uninformative cases for regulatory review. Despite global focus on Development Safety Update Report, local regulators are not yet insistent on real-time update of a drug’s cumulative safety profile. Issues like reporting requirements for generic trials, pregnancy reporting and lenient timeline for death/life-threatening events need attention. Finally, the need to formulate an all-encompassing local pharmacovigilance guideline, in sync with global practice cannot be overemphasized.     

深化高等教育质量改革的几点思考

高等教育质量是高校得以存在与发展的命脉。中国高等教育转型给高校目标定位、优质教育资源、高等教育活动、教学管理与考试制度等方面带来了困扰，影响了高等教育质量的提升。战略上重塑教学中心地位，战术上瞄准高等教育自身活动的改革，引入竞争淘汰制，激发师生教与学的潜能，建构灵活开放的高等教育制度体系，根据人性理论以外力激活大学生学习的内力与自律，是提高高等教育质量的有效路径。     

Visualization for Large‐scale Gaussian Updates

In geostatistics and also in other applications in science and engineering, it is now common to perform updates on Gaussian process models with many thousands or even millions of components. These large‐scale inferences involve modelling, representational and computational challenges. We describe a visualization tool for large‐scale Gaussian updates, the ‘medal plot’. The medal plot shows the updated uncertainty at each observation location and also summarizes the sharing of information across observations, as a proxy for the sharing of information across the state vector (or latent process). As such, it reflects characteristics of both the observations and the statistical model. We illustrate with an application to assess mass trends in the Antarctic Ice Sheet, for which there are strong constraints from the observations and the physics.     

现代大学制度下的学生权力及其实现路径

现代大学制度之下,学生权力是维护自身权利的能力,是制衡其他权力形式、保持大学民主和法治的重要组成部分,其实现路径主要包括参与大学管理、学生组织自治、自主选择学业以及学生评教等。中国大学学生权力缺失的根本原因还是在“行政化”,应该制定大学章程,规范大学内外部权力关系并明确学生权力的地位,加强大学生组织建设并赋予其自治权,以及进一步推进教学管理制度改革、赋予学生自主选择和评价权以保证学生权力的实现。     

共生建构和谐:新农村建设中传统聚落的保护与更新——以辽宁绥中长城聚落小河口为例

当前,传统聚落发展与环境保护矛盾日益突出,在建设社会主义新农村中如何建立传统聚落可持续发展机制,形成保护与更新的有机结合显得非常重要。在调查辽宁长城沿线聚落的基础上,针对小河口历史人文与自然景观保护现状,从文化生态学、景观学、建筑学对聚落沿革、形成机制、景观价值和建筑特色进行分析,并结合具体保护更新实践,提出传统聚落保护更新的共生理念和以整体协调、聚集与分散相结合为原则对聚落资源进行保护利用的具体措施。     

基于生态足迹模型的川西北高原地区可持续发展的耦合路径分析

在2010年国务院发布的《全国主体功能规划》中,川西北高原地区被确定为限制开发区和禁止开发区,成为国家重要的生态功能区之一。由此,在“生态保护”和“限制开发”的前提下,如何推进该地区经济社会的可持续发展,是各级地方党委政府必须面对和研究并解决好的重要问题之一。为此,本文以川西北重点生态功能区——红原县为例,运用生态足迹模型,对该区域自然资源的利用情况和自然生态系统的供给能力进行剖析,进一步分析了该区域的可持续发展状况,找出可持续发展中存在的主要问题和构成要素。在此基础上,以生态系统和经济发展系统相互耦合为视角,提出川西北高原地区可持续发展的耦合路径及对策建议。     

本土品牌逆袭与消费者偏好逆转的纵向扎根研究

  如今的中国市场,诸多行业本土品牌崛起甚至逆袭,消费者对全球品牌与本土品牌的偏好相应逆转。已有研究较为全面地揭示了全球品牌和本土品牌偏好的驱动因素,但本土品牌逆袭过程中全球品牌与本土品牌偏好的驱动因素是否相同、本土品牌逆袭与消费者偏好逆转的互动影响路径是怎样的,对这些问题缺乏探讨。         在梳理相关研究的基础上,以手机行业为研究对象,采用扎根理论的研究方法,通过对网络讨论数据的初始编码、聚焦编码和理论编码,首先研究全球品牌与本土品牌偏好的驱动因素的异同,然后结合对讨论数据的纵向统计结果,研究本土品牌逆袭过程中品牌逆袭与消费者偏好逆转的互动影响路径。         研究结果表明,本土品牌逆袭中,全球品牌与本土品牌偏好的驱动因素模型具有相似的结构,功能价值和社会价值的测量受个人因素调节而影响消费者偏好,但测量功能价值或社会价值的具体因素在全球品牌与本土品牌中存在差异。品牌逆袭有助于提升综合国力、促进消费者成熟,进而驱动消费者偏好逆转;消费者偏好逆转则通过反馈路径帮助品牌进一步逆袭。具体的,消费者对产品特质更加重视,全球品牌的原产国效应和符号价值表现力减弱,本土品牌的口碑效应和符号价值表现力增强,同时消费者的民族主义增强而爱国绑架感减弱,这些因素通过感知价值带来消费者偏好逆转。综合而言,本土品牌逆袭和消费者偏好逆转是互动提升的关系。         研究结果丰富了全球品牌和本土品牌的相关研究,为全球品牌和本土品牌的建设提供了实践启示。产品特质是影响消费者偏好的主要因素,并对其他驱动因素有支撑作用。所以全球品牌和本土品牌都要重视产品的创新和研发,还要根据各驱动因素的变化调整其营销策略。