Subjective utility with upper and lower probabilities on finite states

This article is concerned with thresholds of discrimination of preference judgments under uncertainty. We establish an axiomatic characterization for a threshold representation, where thresholds are represented by inexact measurement of subjective probabilities, i.e., upper and lower probabilities. Since upper and lower probabilities need not be additive, the representational form adopts the Choquet integration.     

新中国成立初党外上层知识分子检讨行为的心理基础

从1949年2月北平解放到1950年下半年，全国开展了以大学教师为主要对象，兼及中小学教师的政治学习运动，继而，党外上层知识分子们纷纷在媒体上发表个人检讨。笔者认为，这种群体性的行为，主要是因为知识分子有着敬佩感激、愧疚自责、从众求安的心理基础。     

拓扑型KKM定理和Riesz空间中的极大极小定理

证明了广义区间空间中几个新的参数型KKM定理,由此得到了Riesz空间中几个新型极大极小定理。     

岷江上游干旱河谷区生态屏障体系建设研究

岷江流域是长江上游重要的支流,其生态地位特别重要,本文分析了岷江上游地区面临的基本生态问题,提出了岷江上游地区生态屏障体系建设的原则、依据与目标,根据岷江上游区域生态系统的空间特征、生态敏感性和生态系统服务功能,将该区域划分为三个生态功能区并确立了森林牧草、水域湿地、农田作物等生态屏障建设重点内容,切实有效维护该区域的生态经济可持续发展和资源环境的有效保护。     

长江上游地区农村产业融合发展水平测度及影响因素

以长江上游地区为例,从农业内部整合型融合、农业产业链延伸型融合、农业功能拓展型融合、先进技术对农业渗透型融合等四个层面,构建了农村产业融合发展评价指标体系,然后借助耦合协调度模型、熵值法综合评价了农村产业融合发展水平,并基于2004—2016年的面板数据,进一步对长江上游地区农村产业融合发展的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究发现:长江上游地区农村产业融合总体水平从0.2088提升为0.6116,提升了0.4028,在四种细分模式中,先进技术对农业的渗透型融合发展态势最为突出;四个省份中,四川省、重庆市农村产业融合水平较高,云南省、贵州省则相对较低;消费需求、土地流转、技术进步、基础设施、环境质量、人力资本、金融发展等因素都从不同程度作用于农村产业融合发展,各因素因为模式不同而呈现出不同的作用。     

A strong law of large numbers for independent random variables under non-additive probabilities

Abstract

Under non‐additive probabilities, cluster points of the empirical average have been proved to quasi-surely fall into the interval constructed by either the lower and upper expectations or the lower and upper Choquet expectations. In this paper, based on the initiated notion of independence, we obtain a different Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund type strong law of large numbers. Then the Kolmogorov type strong law of large numbers can be derived from it directly, stating that the closed interval between the lower and upper expectations is the smallest one that covers cluster points of the empirical average quasi-surely.     

驳精神损害赔偿限额论

精神损害赔偿的主要功能在于填补受害人因此而受到的损害,使其得到抚慰,以便能开始新生活。因此,精神损害赔偿应本着“全面赔偿损害”的原则,不能脱离实际人为地限定数额。     

Just another brick in the wall? The relationship between classroom-based political education and the political interest of young adults in Switzerland

This article asks whether political education at upper secondary school – i.e. shortly before or at the age when young people receive the right to vote – affects individual political interest as well as differences in political interest between social groups. Empirically, we use a novel data set combining individual student data with information on classroom-based political education as well as teacher characteristics. We do not find support for a more or less automatic and positive effect of classroom-based political education on young people’s political interest. Whereas we analyzed three dimensions of political education (knowledge, skills, arousing interest in politics), the skills dimension was the only one that exhibited a consistent positive (and mostly significant) relationship with young peoples’ political interest. Moreover, classroom-based political education seems not to compensate for a lack of political socialization at home but rather tends to affect students with politically interested parents most strongly.     

Objective Bayesian analysis based on upper record values from two-parameter Rayleigh distribution with partial information

In the life test, predicting higher failure times than the largest failure time of the observed is an important issue. Although the Rayleigh distribution is a suitable model for analyzing the lifetime of components that age rapidly over time because its failure rate function is an increasing linear function of time, the inference for a two-parameter Rayleigh distribution based on upper record values has not been addressed from the Bayesian perspective. This paper provides Bayesian analysis methods by proposing a noninformative prior distribution to analyze survival data, using a two-parameter Rayleigh distribution based on record values. In addition, we provide a pivotal quantity and an algorithm based on the pivotal quantity to predict the behavior of future survival records. We show that the proposed method is superior to the frequentist counterpart in terms of the mean-squared error and bias through Monte carlo simulations. For illustrative purposes, survival data on lung cancer patients are analyzed, and it is proved that the proposed model can be a good alternative when prior information is not given.     

Aging and ordering properties of multivariate lifetimes with Archimedean dependence structures

This paper further studies monotone aging properties of the multivariate random lifetime. We revise the sufficient condition for the negative monotone aging property in terms of the multivariate usual stochastic order in Theorem 3.3 of Rezapour et al. (2013) Rezapour, M., Alamatsaz, M.H., Pellerey, F. (2013). Multivariate aging with Archimedean dependence structures in high dimensions. Commun. Stat. - Theory Methods 42:2056–2070.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] and derive the condition sufficient to the multivariate monotone aging properties in terms of the upper orthant order. Also we study the upper orthant order of multivariate residual lifetimes and inactivity times from populations sharing a common Archimedean survival copula and Archimedean survival copula, respectively. Two simple applications in multivariate stress-strength and frailty models are presented as well.