Latin American convergence and divergence towards the mortality profiles of developed countries

It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health.     

Sampling Strategies for Toxic Air Contaminants

Annual concentrations of toxic air contaminants are of primary concern from the perspective of chronic human exposure assessment and risk analysis. Despite recent advances in air quality monitoring technology, resource and technical constraints often impose limitations on the availability of a sufficient number of ambient concentration measurements for performing environmental risk analysis. Therefore, sample size limitations, representativeness of data, and uncertainties in the estimated annual mean concentration must be examined before performing quantitative risk analysis. In this paper, we discuss several factors that need to be considered in designing field-sampling programs for toxic air contaminants and in verifying compliance with environmental regulations. Specifically, we examine the behavior of SO2, TSP, and CO data as surrogates for toxic air contaminants and as examples of point source, area source, and line source-dominated pollutants, respectively, from the standpoint of sampling design. We demonstrate the use of bootstrap resampling method and normal theory in estimating the annual mean concentration and its 95% confidence bounds from limited sampling data, and illustrate the application of operating characteristic (OC) curves to determine optimum sample size and other sampling strategies. We also outline a statistical procedure, based on a one-sided t-test, that utilizes the sampled concentration data for evaluating whether a sampling site is compliance with relevant ambient guideline concentrations for toxic air contaminants.     

Accurate estimation for extra-Poisson variability assuming random effect models

In this study, the components of extra-Poisson variability are estimated assuming random effect models under a Bayesian approach. A standard existing methodology to estimate extra-Poisson variability assumes a negative binomial distribution. The obtained results show that using the proposed random effect model it is possible to get more accurate estimates for the extra-Poisson variability components when compared to the use of a negative binomial distribution where it is possible to estimate only one component of extra-Poisson variability. Some illustrative examples are introduced considering real data sets.     

公平感对供应链成员定价决策影响的研究

本文研究公平感对由一个供应商和一个零售商组成的二级供应链中的定价决策的影响,其中供应商决定批发价格,零售商在接受供应商批发价格合同之后决定零售价格,市场需求受到零售价格的线性影响.采用管理实验方法得出,首先,供应商的批发价格和零售商的零售价格均分别低于完全理性假设下的均衡解;供应商是利他性的,即,乐于看到零售商收益的增加,并且,供应商认为零售商是完全理性的,即零售商的决策目标是最大化自身收益;然而,零售商却是刻毒性的,即乐于看到供应商收益的减少.其次,批发价格的变异度大于零售价格的,即供应商决策的难度大于零售商的.给管理者的启示是:供应商应考虑零售商的刻毒性的特征,降低批发价格,以提高零售商接受供应商所提批发价格的概率;此外,还应该为供应商提供辅助决策手段,以降低批发价格的变异度,提高决策的准确性     

论语言变体和语用失误之间的互相影响

第二语言习得的过程是一个自然的连续体。语言变体研究第二语言习得过程中连续体的节．属于语言习得过程的输入。语言变体由系统变体和非系统变体构成,其中又含有个体变体和语境变体。语用失误则将研究的重点放在语用上,注重语言使用者运用语言过程中出现的失误,属于语言交际过程中的输出。语用失误由语用语言失误和社会语用失误构成。两种不同的理论研究共同的对象——语言习得者,从不同的角度来研究语言的习得和使用,这就极大地丰富了语言习得和使用的内涵,对语言的学和教有着十分重要的价值。     

Simultaneous decomposition of the variance by sources and subgroups – new insights

There are two types of decompositions: of linear combinations of random variables into contributions of individual variables (sources) and associations between them, and of populations into contributions of their subpopulations. Simultaneous treatment of the two types is called for, which takes into account the correlations between sources within subpopulations and between subpopulation means. The expected values of the subcomponents are derived and their sensitivity to correlations among sources within groups and among source group means is conducted. An example is provided, in which the correlations contribute 20--25% to total variability. This additional information is hidden when decompositions are not simultaneous.     

Increasing Vocal Variability in Children with Autism Using a Lag Schedule of Reinforcement

Variability has been demonstrated to be an operant dimension of behavior (Neuringer, 2002; Page & Neuringer, 1985). Recently, lag schedules have been used to demonstrate operant variability of verbal behavior in persons with a diagnosis of autism (e.g., Lee, McComas, & Jawor, 2002). The current study evaluated the effects of a Lag 1 schedule on the vocal variability of 2 nonverbal children with a diagnosis of autism. Results showed systematic increases in variability during the Lag 1 schedule. Implications of lag schedules for speech and language training are discussed.     

A process capability index with reliable confidence intervals

A well-know process capability index is slightly modified in this article to provide a new measure of process capability which takes account of the process location and variability, and for which point estimator and confidence intervals do exist that are insensitive to departures from the assumption of normal variability. Two examples of applications based on real data are presented.     

Statistical evaluation of individual bioequivalence

Drug switchability requires the evidence of individual bioequivalence which -refers to the comparison of the closeness between the two distributions of the pharmacokinetic (PK) responses from the same subject obtained under the repeated administrations of the test and reference formulations. Advantages and drawbacks of the current statistical procedures for assessment of individual bioequivalence are discussed with emphasis on the aggregate-based criteria, An intersection-union test based on disaggregate criteria is proposed for the evaluation of individual bioequivalence. In addition, a modified aggregated criterion is suggested to overcome the drawbacks suffered by aggregate criteria. The relationships among different criteria are examined, and the performance of the procedures will be compared. A numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed procedures.     

中国传统诗学的"异质性"概说

由于西学知识对传统知识谱系的全面替换,中国传统诗学已成为一种"异质"的知识.认识中国传统诗学的这种"异质性"对于中西两种异质的诗学如何在平等对话的基础上达到互补,具有重要的意义.基于这一总体性认识,文章从中西比较的角度对中国传统诗学的谱系结构、知识质态和知识言路作了具体而深入的分析,阐明了中国传统诗学的"异质性"特征.