西方传播理论与模式引介时应注意的几个问题

在引进、介绍西方传播学理论与模式,特别是经验学派的理论与模式时应当注意三个问题:一是在引入、介绍这些理论或模式时应尽可能反映其最新的成果;二是在引介时要准确把握原意,给予实事求是的科学评价;三是要紧密结合中国的具体传播实践。     

贸易中介研究综述

贸易中介在国际贸易发展中发挥的作用越来越受到重视,回顾近年来国内外贸易中介文献,从贸易中介的识别方法、贸易中介影响企业贸易行为的作用机制、实证结果、企业选择贸易中介的影响因素等方面进行研究。研究发现,贸易中介的作用机制包括促进买卖方的匹配、降低贸易成本和验证产品质量; 贸易中介为企业提供了新的出口模式,帮助企业进入市场规模较小、距离较远、贸易成本较高的目的国,对企业的出口产生积极的影响,同时对企业进口国外投入品、出口和生产率提升等产生影响; 在影响因素方面,规模较小、出口产品种类越多的企业面对难以进入的市场,越可能通过贸易中介出口。研究表明,为了完善贸易中介研究的理论体系和应用实践,需要加强贸易中介能否有效应对国内外政治和经济不确定性对进出口的冲击研究,拓展跨境电商与传统贸易中介关系研究,深化企业选择混合出口模式实现贸易中介出口和直接出口的优势互补研究。     

“Phil's Calling Grandma… ”: The Role of External Support in Human–Companion Animal Identity Pairings

This exploratory paper deals with human–animal role identity pairings such as parent–child or sibling–sibling and the necessity of support from other actors both for the formation of these idiosyncratic identities, as well as for their situational placement in social environments not limited to the nonhuman animal. Taken from a qualitative study examining identity formation counter to the nonhuman animal, I use in‐depth interviews of both people with and without human children to demonstrate how human‐to‐human relationships are formed by categorizing the companion animal as a “child” of sorts within the family structure. These relationships prove integral to the continued development and enactment of identities such as the animal “parent” or the animal “sibling” via three different groups: their own parents, partners, and, in one case, adult siblings. This creates positive affect and commitment to the identity across other social situations. Implications of these findings for identity theory and family research are discussed.     

Asymptotic hypothesis test to simultaneously compare the weighted kappa coefficients of multiple binary diagnostic tests in the presence of ignorable missing data

The weighted kappa coefficient of a binary diagnostic test is a measure of the beyond-chance agreement between the diagnostic test and the gold standard, and is a measure that allows us to assess and compare the performance of binary diagnostic tests. In the presence of partial disease verification, the comparison of the weighted kappa coefficients of two or more binary diagnostic tests cannot be carried out ignoring the individuals with an unknown disease status, since the estimators obtained would be affected by verification bias. In this article, we propose a global hypothesis test based on the chi-square distribution to simultaneously compare the weighted kappa coefficients when in the presence of partial disease verification the missing data mechanism is ignorable. Simulation experiments have been carried out to study the type I error and the power of the global hypothesis test. The results have been applied to the diagnosis of coronary disease.     

基于违约鉴别能力组合赋权的小企业信用评级——基于小型工业企业样本数据的实证分析

信用评级是衡量债务违约的可能性,因此评级体系要有违约风险识别能力,能够将违约客户和非违约客户显著地区分开.通过逼近理想点的思路,构建多目标规划模型求解最优的组合权重,并对中国某区域性商业银行1 814笔小型工业企业贷款进行实证分析.本文的创新与特色一是以非违约企业的数据到正理想点的距离代数和最小为第一个目标函数,以违约企业的数据到负理想点的距离代数和最小为第二个目标函数,构建多目标非线性规划模型进行组合赋权,在满足了“非违约企业的评价得分越高、违约企业的评价得分越低”要求的目标下得到最优的组合赋权的权重系数,使赋权结果保证了评级模型能够将违约企业与非违约企业最大地区分开.改变了现有研究的组合赋权脱离评价目的的弊端,改变了现有研究中违约与非违约企业的评价得分存在大量重叠、对两类企业的区分能力低的弊端.二是通过检验“违约企业的信用得分是否显著小于非违约企业的信用得分”的J-T非参数检验,验证信用评价模型的合理性.改变现有研究忽略对信用评价模型的合理性进行验证的弊端.三是经过实证,发现本研究建立的组合赋权模型的违约鉴别能力(Z=5.546)要高于现有研究的两种常用组合赋权模型、即基于方差最大的组合赋权(Z=4.298)和基于偏差最小的组合赋权(Z=5.182)     

实证主义视角下的国际关系理论建构与理论检验

作为一门年轻的学科,国际关系学在方法论方面仍存在很大的不足。我们可以借鉴实证主义的研究思路,采取定量研究的逻辑过程,具体沿用社会学的科学研究方法,同时在方法论、研究方法和研究技术三个层次上探讨国际关系理论建构与理论检验的方法。     

论《孟子》同义词显示的七种格式

运用“双重印证法”对《孟子》的篇章、段落、语句中语词与语词之间的相互关系进行分析 ,考察《孟子》原文中所蕴涵着的单音节实词的同义关系 ,在《孟子》中显示语词同义关系共有七种不同格式     

Risk of Error and the Kappa Coefficient of a Binary Diagnostic Test in the Presence of Partial Verification

The accuracy of a binary diagnostic test is usually measured in terms of its sensitivity and its specificity, or through positive and negative predictive values. Another way to describe the validity of a binary diagnostic test is the risk of error and the kappa coefficient of the risk of error. The risk of error is the average loss that is caused when incorrectly classifying a non-diseased or a diseased patient, and the kappa coefficient of the risk of error is a measure of the agreement between the diagnostic test and the gold standard. In the presence of partial verification of the disease, the disease status of some patients is unknown, and therefore the evaluation of a diagnostic test cannot be carried out through the traditional method. In this paper, we have deduced the maximum likelihood estimators and variances of the risk of error and of the kappa coefficient of the risk of error in the presence of partial verification of the disease. Simulation experiments have been carried out to study the effect of the verification probabilities on the coverage of the confidence interval of the kappa coefficient.     

再论詹姆士的实用主义真理观

实用主义是 2 0世纪西方哲学的一个重要流派。詹姆士的实用主义真理观是实用主义方法、原则的引伸 ,是实用主义理论的核心内容。在詹姆士那里 ,真理是指与实在相符合的观念以及观念必须具备适用性 ;真理既有绝对的一面 ,又有相对的一面 ,是绝对性与相对性的统一 ;真理是观念证实它本身的过程 ,这种证实包括直接证实和间接证实两种方式。从实用主义角度来说 ,间接证实的运用比直接证实更方便、更合算。