A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.     

The context of employment discrimination: interpreting the findings of a field experiment

Although field experiments have documented the contemporary relevance of discrimination in employment, theories developed to explain the dynamics of differential treatment cannot account for differences across organizational and institutional contexts. In this article, I address this shortcoming by presenting the main empirical findings from a multi‐method research project, in which a field experiment of ethnic discrimination in the Norwegian labour market was complemented with forty‐two in‐depth interviews with employers who were observed in the first stage of the study. While the experimental data support earlier findings in documenting that ethnic discrimination indeed takes place, the qualitative material suggests that theorizing in the field experiment literature have been too concerned with individual and intra‐psychic explanations. Discriminatory outcomes in employment processes seems to be more dependent on contextual factors such as the number of applications received, whether requirements are specified, and the degree to which recruitment procedures are formalized. I argue that different contexts of employment provide different opportunity structures for discrimination, a finding with important theoretical and methodological implications.     

后现代主义与可持续发展观之比较

后现代主义与可持续发展观都是对现代工业文明弊端的回应。它们是人类从不同层面反思现代工业文明的结果 ,它们之间有相通之处 ,即都强调人与自然的统一和人与人的平等 ,强调创新的作用。它们有着共同的价值旨归 ,即都关注着人类未来的命运     

高速SDRAM控制器设计的FPGA实现

同步动态存储器(SDRAM)控制器通常用有限状态机实现,对于一般的设计方法,由于状态数量多,状态转换通常伴随大的组合逻辑而影响运行速度,因此,SDRAM控制器的速度限制了SDRAM存储器的访问速度。该文从结构优化入手来优化方法,利用状态机分解的思想将大型SDRAM控制状态机用若干小的子状态机实现,达到简化逻辑的目的,不仅提高了速度还节省了资源,对该类大型SDRAM控制器的实现有一定参考意义。     

三螺旋创新模式的理论探讨

基于非线性网状创新模型提出的“三螺旋场”和“三螺旋循环”概念进一步推进了三螺旋创新模式的理论研究。三螺旋场概念旨在解释在大学、产业和政府三股螺旋之间存在的相对独立和彼此作用的本质，说明三螺旋的生成原理、静态表现和动态演化特征。三螺旋的生成原理在于创新过程的非线性本质和多主体特征，静态表现为“内核外场模型”，而动态演化过程则在于纵向进化和横向循环。发生在三股螺旋之间的三螺旋循环揭示了在大学、产业和政府之间以人员、信息和产品流动为特征的相互作用和运行机制。     

孔子的富贵观及其现代价值解读

孔子的富贵观是其思想体系的重要组成部分。孔子关于世人应否追求富贵,怎样处理富贵与道义的关系,以及富裕之后还当如何等问题在《论语》中都有论述。孔子的这些论述,对当代人们创业致富,以义求利,以及坚持经济建设与精神文明建设两手抓,仍然具有启迪作用和借鉴价值。     

实数域及四元数除环上有平方根的方阵

给出了实数域及实四元数除环上方阵有平方根的充分必要条件．     

论叶圣陶语文教育理论的科学观

叶圣陶教育理论的科学观基于对中国传统语文的深刻认识。据此他倡导语文教育应该以训练学生运用语言的能力和"终身以之"的习惯为主要目的,强调学科的"言语"本位和运用的特点,并对语文教材科学化序列的构建,具有民主色彩的语文教学方法的选择,进行了具有开拓意义的理论探索和实践尝试,从而以科学为导引奠定了现代语文的基础。     

从传统文化的角度解读安乐死

“安乐死”问题已经越来越引起世人的关注,由于涉及到种种道德问题,安乐死在我国难以取得合法地位。我国儒、道两家代表的传统生死观对死亡价值的肯定和重视,为安乐死的合法性提供了有说服力的理论依据。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.