Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes

Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed.     

Weakly implementable social choice rules

Previous investigations have shown that a social choice function which is partially implementable must be characterized by pervasive veto power. This paper investigates how much additional latitude in the design of social choice functions, and how much relief from this vetoers result, can be achieved by examining multi-valued social choice rules and relaxing the requirement of partial implementability to a requirement that we call weak partial implementability. We find that the power structures which characterize partially implementable social choice functions, including the veto properties, also characterize weakly partially implementable social choice rules. The conclusion is that invoking multi-valuedness and implementation of appealing social choice rules in strong Nash equilibria. Our results apparently exhaust the possibilities for implementation in strong Nash equilibrium. If any implementation possibility results are to be achieved, they can apparently come only by weakening the equilibrium requirement.     

成长的感悟——析青年作曲家张朝的《变奏曲》

从音乐形态、表现手法等方面具体分析《变奏曲》这部钢琴作品,探究其中对中国传统戏曲效果的模拟,以及作者如何巧妙地借鉴皮黄丰富的音响和表现力并运用到钢琴音乐中。中西的结合,古今的碰撞、鲜明的色彩个性,这些特点使得这部作品成为探索中国钢琴音乐民族化道路上的闪光点。     

论速度变化对标枪成绩的影响

本文就网络英语教学目前存在的认识上的误区、大学英语网络教学目前可采用的基本模式以及大学英语网络教学的优越性和目前存在的问题进行探讨     

墙的变异--试论当代西方建筑流派之变化

任何事物都在发展变化，建筑流派也同样变化着，本文通过对建筑外墙的表象变化的论述，引出建筑流派的变化，阐明这一变化的根源在于建筑哲学的变异，墙的变异可谓当代西方建筑流派变异的“缩影”。     

论公共政策执行变异的成因与对策

公共政策执行在政策过程中具有十分重要的意义。然而由于多方面的原因,当前政策执行中出现了诸多变异行为,严重影响了公共政策目标的实现。因此,必须积极采取措施,治理公共政策执行中的变异行为。     

A note on LeCam’s bound for the distance between the Poisson binomial and the Poisson distribution

n possibly different success probabilities p ₁, p ₂, ..., p _n is frequently approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter λ = p ₁ + p ₂ + ... + p _n . LeCam's bound p ² ₁ + p ² ₂ + ... + p _n ² for the total variation distance between both distributions is particularly useful provided the success probabilities are small. The paper presents an improved version of LeCam's bound if a generalized d-dimensional Poisson binomial distribution is to be approximated by a compound Poisson distribution. Received: May 10, 2000; revised version: January 15, 2001     

国际公法对弱者的保护及其完善

鉴于弱者保护已成为国际社会普遍关注的热点问题,但时下无论是国内立法还是社会各界对弱者的特殊保护都不同程度地存在一些认识问题或实际问题,依照国际社会公认的保护弱者的国际公约,在对其一系列原则、制度和规则予以详细阐述的基础上,提出进一步完善该方面国际国内立法的思考和建议。     

变译论与女性主义翻译思想之间的对话

福柯的权力话语理论为女性主义翻译思想提供了理论基础。女性主义翻译观强调译者的主体性,解构了原作者和原文的父权话语权力,颠覆了忠实在翻译中的权威地位。女性主义翻译的颠覆性和变译中的变通性构成对话关系,两者都是对忠实的叛逆,使译文具有混杂性和互文性的特性,通过译者在翻译中掌握的权力话语,实现译文话语权力的重构。     

英语语流音变现象浅析

语音变化是语言变化的主要方面之一,英语语流中的音变对英语听力产生重大的影响。本文对英语语流中音变的一些规律进行分析,以助提高我们的英语听力教学质量。