风力发电技术经济分析及对策

介绍了中、美等6个国家的电力构成以及世界风能资源的分布,并对世界风能资源经济效益进行了分析,阐述了风力发电的前景,指出了我国风电产业存在的问题,并提出发展我国风电产业的建议:研发大型风电机组,强化环保法规及给予风电产业以优惠政策.     

左思风力之成因初探

西晋诗人左思的诗风在西晋文坛上独树一帜，称之为“左思风力”，前人对此有较多地论述，然而就诗风形成的原因却缺乏深入地探究。本文试图从社会时代背景、家庭因素、性格特征三个方面对此加以分析，旨在能够更好地把握左思其人及其诗风。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Model-based clustering of multivariate skew data with circular components and missing values

Motivated by classification issues that arise in marine studies, we propose a latent-class mixture model for the unsupervised classification of incomplete quadrivariate data with two linear and two circular components. The model integrates bivariate circular densities and bivariate skew normal densities to capture the association between toroidal clusters of bivariate circular observations and planar clusters of bivariate linear observations. Maximum-likelihood estimation of the model is facilitated by an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm that treats unknown class membership and missing values as different sources of incomplete information. The model is exploited on hourly observations of wind speed and direction and wave height and direction to identify a number of sea regimes, which represent specific distributional shapes that the data take under environmental latent conditions.     

穆旦与奥登：历史追问与现实反思——兼与江弱水先生商榷

江弱水在《外国文学评论》上发表的《伪奥登风与非中国性：重估穆旦》指出穆旦诗歌是对奥登诗歌的移译，而非中国性这一特征造成了穆旦诗歌的失败。而文本从选择奥登的原因、伪奥登风的消解、穆旦诗歌中的“非中国性”追问、传统与现代的反思等四个方面探讨和重新考察穆旦诗歌与奥登的关联，进而认为穆旦诗歌的特质与奥登并非密切相关。     

Spatial effects on individual social capital: Differentiating the constraints of local occupational structures

Recent studies have paid more attention to how position-generated social capital varies by an individual’s characteristics, and less to how geographical distributions of occupations may constrain position-specific connections. By integrating two national surveys from the United States, we differentiate the extent to which individual social capital fluctuates by occupational compositions at the county, metropolis, and state levels. Multilevel analyses show that when more people at all three levels work in education, training, and library occupations, residents have a greater chance to gain access to professional-type resources. Similar spatial effects on farming and production resources, however, are more apparent at the county level. Not only does the association between individual social capital and local occupational structures vary across different occupations, but the magnitude of such spatial effects also differs by the scope of the geographical areas. The findings underscore how contextual factors and geographical location may contribute to building occupation-specific network resources.     

单片机控制器在卷染机中的应用

】将卷染机的控制系统从直流电机拖动、自耦调压器有级调速改造为交流电机拖动和变频器无级调速。通过对调节对象的理论分析,得到了一种新的控制策略,研制出以单片机为核心的控制器,在不使用速度和张力传感器的条件下,控制系统可自动对被染织物进行恒速与恒张力控制,以利于染色质量的稳定和提高。经实际运行表明,该系统运行可靠,节能增效显著。     

大气边界层中天线风载特性的数值分析

基于Reynolds时均N-S方程和RSM湍流模型,以大气边界层中具体地貌的风速剖面为入口边界条件,对某一车载雷达天线的风载进行数值模拟,得到天线的阻力系数;并与目前天线设计采用的均一风速为边界条件的计算结果进行比较,研究了工作高度、风速、地貌等因素对大气边界层中天线风载特性的影响。计算结果表明,大气边界层中天线的阻力系数随工作高度及风速的增加而增大;而地面粗糙度对天线阻力系数的影响则由天线相对于标准参考高度的位置决定。     

达里厄垂直轴风力机叶片螺旋变异优化研究

针对传统达里厄( Darrieus)直叶片垂直轴风力机在运行过程中出现叶片动转矩周期波动性大,动转矩系数曲线 震荡剧烈,造成对风轮旋转主轴的强烈冲击及风力机功率输出不稳定等问题,文章提出对Darrieus垂直轴风力机传统直 叶片进行螺旋扭曲变异设计,以改善风力机叶片的动转矩输出性能。结合SolidWorks和MATLAB完成风力机模型的三 维参数化建模,在流体仿真软件FLUENT中完成模型的数值模拟仿真计算。通过螺旋扭曲角的单因素试验验证了变异 设计叶片输出的动转矩性能周期波动性降低,平均动转矩得到提高,并确定螺旋扭曲角的优化区间。文章构建了风力机 系统模型建立与仿真体系,采取螺旋扭曲变异设计,改善了风力机叶片输出的动转矩性能,初步确定合理的螺旋扭曲角 分布范围为：70°~ ll0°。