论彼得·圣吉的管理哲学

彼得·圣吉是美国著名的管理学家。他的管理哲学从管理理论与管理实践、管理主体与管理客体、管理手段与管理目的、管理组织系统与管理环境之间的关系等四个维度全面揭示了管理科学的发展取向 ,深邃而富有内涵 ,值得我们研究和探讨     

Lower bounds on expectations of positive L-statistics from without-replacement models

We consider samples drawn without replacement from finite populations. We establish optimal lower non-negative and upper non-positive bounds on the expectations of linear combinations of order statistics centered about the population mean in units generated by the population central absolute moments of various orders. We also specify the general results for important examples of sample extremes, Gini mean differences and sample range. The paper completes the results of Papadatos and Rychlik [2004. Bounds on expectations of L-statistics from without replacement samples. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 124, 317–336], where sharp negative lower and positive upper bounds on the expectations of the combinations were presented for the without-replacement samples.     

Generalized Laplacian approximations in Bayesian inference

This paper presents a new Laplacian approximation to the posterior density of η = g(θ). It has a simpler analytical form than that described by Leonard et al. (1989). The approximation derived by Leonard et al. requires a conditional information matrix R_η to be positive definite for every fixed η. However, in many cases, not all R_η are positive definite. In such cases, the computations of their approximations fail, since the approximation cannot be normalized. However, the new approximation may be modified so that the corresponding conditional information matrix can be made positive definite for every fixed η. In addition, a Bayesian procedure for contingency-table model checking is provided. An example of cross-classification between the educational level of a wife and fertility-planning status of couples is used for explanation. Various Laplacian approximations are computed and compared in this example and in an example of public school expenditures in the context of Bayesian analysis of the multiparameter Fisher-Behrens problem.     

AN ALGORITHM FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF OPTIMAL OR NEAR-OPTIMAL CHANGE-OVER DESIGNS

This paper presents an algorithm for the construction of optimal or near optimal change-over designs for arbitrary numbers of treatments, periods and units. Previous research on optimality has been either theoretical or has resulted in limited tabulations of small optimal designs. The algorithm consists of a number of steps:first find an optimal direct treatment effects design, ignoring residual effects, and then optimise this class of designs with respect to residual effects. Poor designs are avoided by judicious application of the (M, S)-optimality criterion, and modifications of it, to appropriate matrices. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated by examples.     

Bayesian analysis of outlier problems using divergence measures

A Bayesian approach is presented for detecting influential observations using general divergence measures on the posterior distributions. A sampling-based approach using a Gibbs or Metropolis-within-Gibbs method is used to compute the posterior divergence measures. Four specific measures are proposed, which convey the effects of a single observation or covariate on the posterior. The technique is applied to a generalized linear model with binary response data, an overdispersed model and a nonlinear model. An asymptotic approximation using Laplace method to obtain the posterior divergence is also briefly discussed.     

天才的萨克雷与永恒的《名利场》

从介绍英国19世纪批判现实主义小说家萨克雷的生平入手,通过对其代表作《名利场》所完成“描写真实”、“宣扬仁爱”两大任务的深刻揭示,就这位“天才”所显示出来的一系列艺术创新手法进行了评析,并对其存在的历史局限性进行了披露,高度评价了其在英国现实主义小说发展史上坚持真实性原则、不落窠臼而独树一帜的艺术成就。     

一类特殊模的自同态环

本文讨论了相对投射模的自同态环,得出了M一投射模P的Jacobson根为其小子模且P直不可分解时,其自同态环是局部环.     

A probablistic analysis for an optimal screening problem

Summary We consider a lotL formed byN apparently similar unitsW ₁,…,W _N, where each of theW _i may come from one of two different populationsP ₁ andP ₂;T ₁,…,T _N denote the corresponding lifetimes. The units fromP _i undergo a failure of kindi and their survival function isS _i (t). We assume that the failure rate function are known and that the units fromP ₁ are ?substandard?: λ ₁ (t)≥λ ₂ (t), ∀t≥0. We want to putW ₁,…,W _N under a pre-operational test (burn-in test) in order to eliminate at least a great part of the substandard units and we face the problem of obtaining a rule for stopping the test under the assumption that, with the failure of a unit, it is possible to recognize the population from which the unit comes. Such a problem will be formalized as an optimal stopping problem for a suitably defined Markov process. Our study shall evidentiate some fundamental aspects of the problem and the role of the prior distribution of the (random) numberM ₀ of those units inL coming fromP ₁ (substandard). The latter distribution has a great influence on the form of the solution. This research was supported by the C.N.R. Project ?Statistica Bayesiana e Simulazione in Affidalità e Modellistica Biologica?.     

Evaluating employee assistance programs. A review of methods, outcomes, and future directions

Renewed interest in assisting troubled employees has led to an upsurge in the development of employee assistance programs, coupled with demands for demonstrable effectiveness. This review examines the nature and scope of these programs, their administrative and methodological context, and the types and outcomes of evaluation studies conducted thus far. Proposals for improving future investigations through a number of different approaches and strategies are then made.     

价值哲学的认识论转换--乌尔班价值理论研究

从乌尔班的《评价 :其性质及其法则》开始 ,价值哲学的研究主题发生了一种根本性的转变 :由新世界图景的价值哲学建构 ,转向对价值哲学理论的研究。换言之 ,在此之后价值哲学研究结束了形而上学阶段 ,而进入了认识论阶段。在认识论阶段 ,评价问题成为最为重要的研究课题。在对评价问题的研究中 ,乌尔班开创了一种以心理学为基础的经验论研究理路。我国近 2 0年的价值哲学的研究范式与乌尔班开始的美国价值哲学的研究范式十分相似。