非典与中国的电子商务

探讨了非典对于中国电子商务的影响以及电子商务在此期间发挥出的作用、存在的不足，进而提出了关于如何促进中国电子商务进一步发展的思考和建议．     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

A Bayesian Analysis for Accelerated Lifetime Tests Under an Exponential Power Law Model with Threshold Stress

In this paper, we present a Bayesian methodology for modelling accelerated lifetime tests under a stress response relationship with a threshold stress. Both Laplace and MCMC methods are considered. The methodology is described in detail for the case when an exponential distribution is assumed to express the behaviour of lifetimes, and a power law model with a threshold stress is assumed as the stress response relationship. We assume vague but proper priors for the parameters of interest. The methodology is illustrated by a accelerated failure test on an electrical insulation film.     

Development of the Mental Illness and Disorder Understanding Scale

Abstract: Although administrative bodies such as community health centers have implemented various awareness campaigns to promote community understanding of mental health and to reduce the stigma associated with mental illness and disorder, there have been few reports that have quantitatively analyzed the effects of these campaigns in Japan. Therefore, this study was conducted for the purpose of developing the evaluative “Mental Illness and Disorder Understanding Scale (MIDUS)” for awareness campaigns and assessing its reliability and validity. A survey was conducted on 1 004 community residents using a self‐administered questionnaire. An assessment of the reliability and validity of the scale was then conducted. The Cronbach a coefficient of the MIDUS was 0.78, thus indicating adequate reliability. Factor analysis of the MIDUS revealed three factors: “Treatability of illness”, “Efficacy of medication” and “Social recognition of illness”. In addition, a significant correlation was observed between the MIDUS and existing scales, and fixed criterion‐based validity was demonstrated. The MIDUS utilizes items worded in the form of affirmative expressions so as to avoid promoting new bias. It was confirmed to be both reliable and valid, thereby suggesting its usefulness as an evaluative scale of awareness campaigns.     

Stress at work and psychological and immunological parameters in a group of Norwegian female bank employees

This study concerned the immunological correlates of stress and work. Self reported stress, emotional state, ego-strength, and defensiveness were examined in relation to measures of cellular immunity (T-cell response to Con A and number of T4 and T8 cells) and humoral immunity (concentrations of immunoglobulins and complement components in plasma) in a group of 96 Norwegian female bank employees. The analyses showed that workload, the stress factor with the highest group mean, was associated with number of T-cells, while strain due to body posture during work was related to concentrations of IgM and C3. Further, depression was significantly correlated with IgM concentration and T-cell number, and anxiety with C3 concentration. T-cell activity was the immunological parameter most consistently associated with psychological well-being, showing positive correlations with defensiveness and ego-strength and negative correlations with anxiety and depression. In conclusion, T-cell number and concentrations of IgM and C3 were sensitive to both work-related stress experience and emotional distress. Coping abilities, indicated by the MMPI Ego-strength scale and emotional distress, were reflected in T-cell activity; insufficient coping was associated with low T-cell activity.     

Reliability of stress–strength model for exponentiated Pareto distributions

In this paper, the reliability of a system is discussed when the strength of the system and the stress imposed on it are independent, non-identical exponentiated Pareto distributed random variables. Different point estimations and interval estimations are proposed. The point estimators obtained are maximum likelihood, uniformly minimum variance unbiased and Bayesian estimators. The interval estimations obtained are approximate, exact, bootstrap-p and bootstrap-t confidence intervals and Bayesian credible interval. Different methods and the corresponding confidence intervals are compared using Monte-carlo simulations.     

Symptoms of Eating Disorders Among Females in Drug Addiction Treatment

The aim of this study is to measure and describe symptoms of eating disorders among females in treatment for drug addiction in Norway. Previous clinical and epidemiological studies have revealed coprevalence between eating disorders and substance use or abuse. However, few studies have measured eating disorders in drug-using samples and even fewer within the context of drug treatment. In this study, 29 females with drug use disorder in residential treatment were tested with the Eating Disorder Inventory–2. A subgroup of 9 females (31%) with significant symptoms of eating disorders was identified. The characteristics of this group and possible clinical consequences are discussed.     

Intimate partner violence in neighborhood context: The roles of structural disadvantage,subjective disorder,and emotional distress

Most theoretical treatments of intimate partner violence (IPV) focus on individual-level processes. Some researchers have attempted to situate IPV within the larger neighborhood context, but few studies have sought to link structural- and individual-level factors. The current analyses fill a research gap by examining the role of anger and depression in the association between neighborhood disadvantage and IPV. Using data from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS) and the 2000 Census, this study focuses on structural indicators of disadvantage as well as subjective disorder, and highlights the complex associations between neighborhood conditions, emotional distress, and IPV. Findings indicate that anger and depressive symptoms partially explain the association between neighborhood disadvantage and IPV. Additionally, the associations between disadvantage, disorder, and IPV depend on respondent’s level of anger. Results underscore the need to further consider the role of neighborhood factors (both objective and subjective) in relation to IPV, and also suggest the utility of introducing individual-level emotional measures to assess the circumstances under which neighborhoods matter most.     

Using small data to interpret big data: 311 reports as individual contributions to informal social control in urban neighborhoods

Informal social control is considered a vital component of the well-being of urban communities. Though some argue that the actions that constitute this social process are often said to reflect territoriality, little else is known about how individuals contribute to it. The current study leverages a database of over 600,000 requests for government services received by the city of Boston, MA's 311 system as a way to answer such questions, focusing particularly on reports of issues in the public space arising from incivilities. In order to establish construct validity for the “big data” of the 311 system, they are combined with the “small data” of a survey of 311 users, permitting the simultaneous analysis of objective reporting behaviors with self-report attitudes. The analysis occurs in two parts. First, reporting of incivilities is distinguished behaviorally from reporting public issues arising from natural deterioration, and people are found to specialize in one or the other. Second, the survey is used to test whether the reports are a reflection of territoriality. Reports of incivilities were unique in their association with a desire to enforce local social norms. They were also associated with a second territorial motivation to benefit the community. Implications for future research are discussed.     

Support for midwives – A model of professional supervision based on the recertification programme for midwives in New Zealand

Following a traumatic practice experience the physiological and psychological effects experienced by midwives are exacerbated as a result of dysfunctional health organisations and the counterproductive behaviours therein. It is suggested the stress experienced would have been reduced if support in the form of professional supervision had been available.The aim of this article is to demonstrate that professional supervision should be viewed as a competency requirement by the Midwifery Council of New Zealand and incorporated into the midwifery recertification programme. A model of professional supervision for midwives based on the recertification programme is introduced and the importance of reflection on practice emphasised. Providing support by means of professional supervision in the midwifery recertification programme, has the potential to make midwives feel valued, improve their job satisfaction, reduce violence in the workplace, aid in the attrition rate and improve the care for the childbearing woman.