Preparing Parents for Adoption: An Agency Experience

To prepare for the complexities of family formation, 78 prospective adoptive parents participated in Pre-Adopt, a psychosocial educational orientation program offered by one private nonprofit agency. The five-session curriculum included an overview of adoption policies and procedures, discussion of the child placement process, exploration of couples' adoption concerns and expectations about child characteristics, information about adoption laws and birth-parent/child searches, and examination of anticipatory fantasies about birth parents. Program evaluation yielded statistically significant and clinically meaningful findings about changes in emotional readiness to adopt, parenting knowledge, and satisfaction with group participation, adoption policies and agency practices. Practice implications are considered.     

Ordinal utility models of decision making under uncertainty

This paper studies two models of rational behavior under uncertainty whose predictions are invariant under ordinal transformations of utility. The quantile utility model assumes that the agent maximizes some quantile of the distribution of utility. The utility mass model assumes maximization of the probability of obtaining an outcome whose utility is higher than some fixed critical value. Both models satisfy weak stochastic dominance. Lexicographic refinements satisfy strong dominance.The study of these utility models suggests a significant generalization of traditional ideas of riskiness and risk preference. We define one action to be riskier than another if the utility distribution of the latter crosses that of the former from below. The single crossing property is equivalent to a minmax spread of a random variable. With relative risk defined by the single crossing criterion, the risk preference of a quantile utility maximizer increases with the utility distribution quantile that he maximizes. The risk preference of a utility mass maximizer increases with his critical utility value.     

Priority Setting for the Distribution of Localized Hazard Protection

We address the problem of distributing safety-enhancing devices across a region, where each identical device provides for only local protection of the population. The devices protect nonidentical sectors of the population. The sectors of population are exposed to nonidentical intensities of hazard. A method for the screening and prioritizing of needs for the protective devices is described. An approach of risk-benefit-cost analysis under uncertainty is recommended as follows. Measures of hazard intensity and population exposure are identified. Exogenous parameters that influence assessments of risks, benefits, and costs are identified. Uncertainties of the exogenous parameters are propagated by interval analysis. Several tiers of the plausibility of need for protection are identified. The tiers are useful in setting priorities for the distribution of the safety devices. The method is demonstrated in an engineering application to roadway lighting, but has implications for disaster preparedness, anti-terrorism, transportation safety, and other arenas of public safety.     

基于σ/ Q 的库存控制中安全库存的优选策略

研究了单项目库存控制问题中的安全库存选择策略,评论了安全库存的决定要素,讨论 了基于以上要素的成本构成。进一步讨论了安全库存策略在理论和实践应用中的矛盾,提出 了一种实践中容易操作的安全库存的直观求解方法,以利于管理者实际运用,有效克服运作环 境的不确定性     

Risk Mapping of Groundwater‐Drawdown‐Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas

Groundwater leakage into subsurface constructions can cause reduction of pore pressure and subsidence in clay deposits, even at large distances from the location of the construction. The potential cost of damage is substantial, particularly in urban areas. The large‐scale process also implies heterogeneous soil conditions that cannot be described in complete detail, which causes a need for estimating uncertainty of subsidence with probabilistic methods. In this study, the risk for subsidence is estimated by coupling two probabilistic models, a geostatistics‐based soil stratification model with a subsidence model. Statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties are inputs into the models. The results include spatially explicit probabilistic estimates of subsidence magnitude and sensitivities of included model parameters. From these, areas with significant risk for subsidence are distinguished from low‐risk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modeling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk‐reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned tunnel in Stockholm.     

Treatment Choice With Trial Data: Statistical Decision Theory Should Supplant Hypothesis Testing

Abstract

A central objective of empirical research on treatment response is to inform treatment choice. Unfortunately, researchers commonly use concepts of statistical inference whose foundations are distant from the problem of treatment choice. It has been particularly common to use hypothesis tests to compare treatments. Wald’s development of statistical decision theory provides a coherent frequentist framework for use of sample data on treatment response to make treatment decisions. A body of recent research applies statistical decision theory to characterize uniformly satisfactory treatment choices, in the sense of maximum loss relative to optimal decisions (also known as maximum regret). This article describes the basic ideas and findings, which provide an appealing practical alternative to use of hypothesis tests. For simplicity, the article focuses on medical treatment with evidence from classical randomized clinical trials. The ideas apply generally, encompassing use of observational data and treatment choice in nonmedical contexts.     

农户个体决策与农民经济组织的内生性——超边际视角下的农民经济组织

单个农户在分工协作中能够获得"1 1>2"的分工经济,通过特定的经济组织来安排单个农户的分工协作就会实现这种分工经济。但是,组织中的单个农户与其他经济主体必然存在着交易费用。当交易费用超过了分工协作的经济性,单个农户就不会选择加入经济组织。地方政府往往不能充分理解单个农户对经济组织中交易费用和相对价格的考虑,这导致了大多数农户不愿选择加入"模式"型的经济组织。因此,地方政府要以自身的分工特征合理融入农民经济组织发展的各个阶段。     

Decision settings analysis – a tool for analysis and design of human activity systems

The paper describes a methodology to be used for analysis and design of human activity systems. The methodology is based on an analysis of the decision settings whereas most other decision analysis methodologies are analysing the process. The decision concept is analysed and discussed. A distinction between programmed and programmable as well as non-programmed and non-programmable decisions is proposed. A classification of different information types for decision making is presented. A methodology based on a systemic and systematic analysis of the information requirements of an organization is proposed. This methodology also indicates organizational discrepancies and information imbalances. The methodology focuses the settings of the decisions on all levels of organizations. The methodology can be regarded as a dynamic, learning system. The author proposes further research on the individuals decision making abilities.     

Socializing Children About Family Structure: Perspectives of Lesbian and Gay Adoptive Parents

Despite increasing numbers of lesbian- and gay- (LG-) parent families, little research on LG-adoptive-parent families has examined parental beliefs and perceptions related to discussing their sexual minority status with their children. This study assessed 266 LG adoptive parents (160 lesbian mothers, 106 gay fathers) from the Modern Adoptive Families (MAF) study, a nationwide survey (2012–2013) of adoptive parents' pre- and post-placement experiences. A cultural socialization lens provided the framework for examining LG parenting beliefs and practices. Two measurement scales were developed to examine parents' perceptions and self-efficacy related to socializing their child about being in a sexual-minority-parent family. Results indicate that LG parents endorse the importance of unique socialization practices and generally feel confident engaging in these practices. Parent education, transracial adoption, endorsement of racial socialization, and socialization self-efficacy were positively associated with endorsement of socialization practices. Excellent reliability suggests the 2 scales have the potential of being psychometrically sound instruments with which to measure parental endorsement and related self-efficacy of socialization practices for families headed by sexual minority parents. Findings contribute to a deeper understanding of socialization and communication patterns in LG-headed families, especially those formed through adoption. Research, policy, and practice implications are discussed.     

大数据在重大行政决策中的应用及其法治化

大数据在重大行政决策领域的应用,属于技术理性与决策规则的有机融合。凭借信息来源与技术革新,大数据可赋予传统决策向数字化转型的新动能。大数据的应用贯穿于重大行政决策始终,在市场监管、环境保护等多类事项中所发挥的实践优势较为明显,能够推动决策的高效化、提升决策的精准度、增强决策机关之间的联动。然而,大数据应用可能会引发决策安全的隐忧、个人数据存在的空间被挤压以及决策失误的责任承担等难题。对前述问题提出对策的过程,实乃数据治理向治理数据的转变,此阶段不能欠缺法律法规的引导,应尝试从决策数据安全体系的法治保障、个人数据的法律保护、决策责任追究机制的科学建构等层面去推动大数据应用的法治化。