A Note on the Role of the Propensity Score for Estimating Average Treatment Effects

Hahn [Hahn, J. (1998). On the role of the propensity score in efficient semiparametric estimation of average treatment effects. Econometrica 66:315-331] derived the semiparametric efficiency bounds for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) and the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET). The variance of ATET depends on whether the propensity score is known or unknown. Hahn attributes this to “dimension reduction.” In this paper, an alternative explanation is given: Knowledge of the propensity score improves upon the estimation of the distribution of the confounding variables.     

Direct and Indirect Causal Effects via Potential Outcomes*

Abstract. The use of the concept of ‘direct’ versus ‘indirect’ causal effects is common, not only in statistics but also in many areas of social and economic sciences. The related terms of ‘biomarkers’ and ‘surrogates’ are common in pharmacological and biomedical sciences. Sometimes this concept is represented by graphical displays of various kinds. The view here is that there is a great deal of imprecise discussion surrounding this topic and, moreover, that the most straightforward way to clarify the situation is by using potential outcomes to define causal effects. In particular, I suggest that the use of principal stratification is key to understanding the meaning of direct and indirect causal effects. A current study of anthrax vaccine will be used to illustrate ideas.     

归因理论在培养大学生科学择业观中的应用

当前在大学生中间流行着形形色色的不良择业心态,这些不良择业心态严重影响着大学生科学择业观的养成,也不利于其顺利就业。运用归因理论,有针对性地分析大学生不良的择业心态,打造适合学生自身发展特点的科学择业观,有利于大学生形成具有长远竞争力的"就业力"。     

Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame‐shifting “lame excuses” for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning—especially from near‐misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk‐reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management.     

国际组织与成员国法律责任多重归属问题研究

国际组织和成员国的法律责任归属问题一直以来都是国际法争论的话题。政府间国际组织作为一类国际法主体,应独立承担法律责任。但在实践中,成员国在执行国际组织决议的过程中往往滥用国际组织法律人格,其行为不仅是国际组织法律人格的体现,还代表了自己的意志,造成法律责任归属不明。以此种争议情形为研究对象,结合1999年的使用武力合法性案,2007年欧洲人权法院的拜拉米案和萨拉马提(Behrami/Saramati)案、阿尔吉达(Al-Jedda)案以及2014年海牙法院关于斯雷布雷尼察(Srebrenica)诉荷兰案的相关判决,借鉴国外学者近几年的相关研究,认为应当坚持国际组织和成员国法律责任的多重归属。围绕责任多重归属原则的确立过程,通过对2011年《国际组织责任条款草案》相关条文的分析,明确了行为归属与责任归属的关系:只有确定行为归属之后,才能确定责任归属;为了最终确定责任的多重归属,提出以有效控制为标准认定行为归属,并明确这种有效控制是对具体行为的事实控制。     

《天龙八部》中的因果之说

《天龙八部》是金庸作品中和佛教关系最紧密的一部小说。金庸通过三位主角引出了芸芸众生相以及纷繁复杂的故事发展,而这一切到最后,全部都是有因可循的。通过分析主角及配角的经历和结局,来揭示《天龙八部》中所体现的因果之说。     

Early socialization of hostile attribution bias: The roles of parental attributions,parental discipline,and child attributes

The goal of this study was to examine child and parent predictors of children's hostile attribution bias (HAB) with a particular focus on exploring the associations between parents’ early attribution of child misbehavior and children's HAB in the transition to school age. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) of middle‐income families who were at risk for school‐age conduct problems. Multi‐method, multi‐informant data were collected on maternal attributions of child misbehavior, parental use of corporal punishment, and child attributes (i.e., verbal IQ, effortful control, theory of mind, and emotional understanding) at 3 years, and child HAB in ambiguous situations at 6 years. Results indicated that mothers’ internal explanations for children's misconduct may either reduce or increase children's later HAB depending on the specific content of attributions, such that mothers’ belief that children misbehave because of their internal state (i.e., emotional state or temperament) was associated with lower levels of child HAB, whereas attributing power‐based motives (i.e., manipulative, controlling intentions) in children was associated with higher levels of HAB. The findings are discussed with respect to appreciating the complexity of parents’ explanations for children's behavior, and considering parental cognition as a potential target for early identification and prevention of child HAB and related problems.     

教师引导下的积极归因方式和英语听力课堂效能研究

归因后个体产生的变化主要通过情感反应和行为预期来实现。通过实验对比的方法,运用SPSS分析来讨论教师有意识地引导学生积极归因,就会对提高英语听力课堂教学效果有所帮助。     

归因和自我效能感在自我调节学习中的作用

文章以416名高中生为被试,用归因问卷、自我效能感问卷和自我调节学习问卷为工具,对归因和自我效能感在自我调节学习中的作用进行分析.结果表明:(1)归因和自我效能感直接对自我调节学习策略产生影响;(2)归因方式、自我效能感和自我调节学习策略存在性别差异;(3)归因方式存在年级差异;(4)动机成分中的自我效能感和归因是作为调节机制而存在的,影响到个体对认知和元认知策略的选择.