专业观众展览会参观动机研究——来自东莞的证据

以展览业发达的东莞为研究样地,利用因素分析与聚类研究相结合的综合定量方法,对专业观众的观展动机进行综合评估及分类研究。研究表明,专业观众的非购买动机甚过购买动机,他们观展动机的四个维度因子依次为:搜集信息、建立市场关系、考察奖励、采购行为。本研究还发现专业观众的观展动机分为目标模糊型、信息搜集导向型、目标多维明确型三种类型。     

A simple estimator for a shared frailty regression model

Summary. We propose a simple estimation procedure for a proportional hazards frailty regression model for clustered survival data in which the dependence is generated by a positive stable distribution. Inferences for the frailty parameter can be obtained by using output from Cox regression analyses. The computational burden is substantially less than that of the other approaches to estimation. The large sample behaviour of the estimator is studied and simulations show that the approximations are appropriate for use with realistic sample sizes. The methods are motivated by studies of familial associations in the natural history of diseases. Their practical utility is illustrated with sib pair data from Beaver Dam, Wisconsin.     

产业集群:提升天津滨海新区竞争力的战略选择

产业集群的研究已经成为地区或国家竞争力研究以及区域经济研究的热点.在发达国家,基于产业集群而形成的集群经济早已成为区域经济的重要板块和亮点.本文通过对产业集群理论的回顾以及对产业集群竞争优势的研究,深入思考天津滨海新区所特有的经济条件和发展优势,提出了为提升区域竞争力、加快实施产业集群的经济发展战略.     

Modeling probability density through ultraspherical polynomial transformations

We present a method for fitting parametric probability density models using an integrated square error criterion on a continuum of weighted Lebesgue spaces formed by ultraspherical polynomials. This approach is inherently suitable for creating mixture model representations of complex distributions and allows fully autonomous cluster analysis of high-dimensional datasets. The method is also suitable for extremely large sets, allowing post facto model selection and analysis even in the absence of the original data. Furthermore, the fitting procedure only requires the parametric model to be pointwise evaluable, making it trivial to fit user-defined models through a generic algorithm.     

Use of multiple cluster analysis methods to explore the validity of a community outcomes concept map

Concept mapping is now a commonly-used technique for articulating and evaluating programmatic outcomes. However, research regarding validity of knowledge and outcomes produced with concept mapping is sparse. The current study describes quantitative validity analyses using a concept mapping dataset. We sought to increase the validity of concept mapping evaluation results by running multiple cluster analysis methods and then using several metrics to choose from among solutions. We present four different clustering methods based on analyses using the R statistical software package: partitioning around medoids (PAM), fuzzy analysis (FANNY), agglomerative nesting (AGNES) and divisive analysis (DIANA). We then used the Dunn and Davies-Bouldin indices to assist in choosing a valid cluster solution for a concept mapping outcomes evaluation. We conclude that the validity of the outcomes map is high, based on the analyses described. Finally, we discuss areas for further concept mapping methods research.     

Similar coefficient for cluster of probability density functions

In this article, we propose a new criterion to evaluate the similarity of probability density functions (pdfs). We call this the criterion on similar coefficient of cluster (SCC) and use it as a tool to deal with overlap coefficients of pdfs in normal standard on [0;1]. With the support of the self-update algorithm for determining the suitable number of clusters, SCC then becomes a criterion to establish the corresponding cluster for pdfs. Moreover, some results on determination of SCC in case of two and more than two pdfs as well as relations of different SCCs and other measures are presented. The numerical examples in both synthetic data and real data are given not only to illustrate the suitability of proposed theories and algorithms but also to demonstrate the applicability and innovation of the proposed algorithm.     

长江三角洲城市群洪涝灾害脆弱性评估及影响因素分析

长江三角洲城市群人口、财产、基础设施高度密集,暴雨洪涝灾害带来的影响越来越大,对该区域城市洪涝灾害脆弱性进行评估是保障长江三角洲区域一体化、可持续发展的基础。以长江三角洲城市群中心区27个城市为研究对象,基于超效率DEA模型,将洪涝灾害脆弱性看作一个负面“生产活动”,构建城市洪涝灾害脆弱性评估模型,在分析脆弱性空间分异特征的基础上确定该地区城市洪涝灾害脆弱性的主要影响因素。结果显示：从整体上看,长江三角洲城市群洪涝灾害脆弱性水平差异较大,安徽及浙江远高于江苏和上海,其中,上海的洪灾脆弱性最低;从空间上看,脆弱性分布有明显的地域集聚特征,脆弱性高的城市分布在浙江东南沿海和安徽南部丘陵地区;降雨量、城市发展水平及基础设施的完善性等因素对城市洪涝灾害脆弱性影响显著。     

建立中国(上海)自由贸易试验区动因及其经济效应分析

上海自贸试验区的建立,不是着眼于一城市、一区域的发展,而是力图通过开放转变政府角色、推动制度创新,突破金融领域的改革难点,从而带来"制度红利",充分运用市场调配资源的高效为我国社会主义建设事业服务。上海要实现建成金融中心、贸易中心的宏伟目标,必须从自贸试验区开始,从根本上摒除要素流动的障碍,协调好与经济腹地,与香港、深圳前海等区域的关系,实现区域经济协同发展。上海自贸试验区的建成,必将进一步推动上海服务业产业集聚,推动上海金融中心、航运中心、贸易中心更上一个能级,辐射长江流域甚至更广阔的地域。     

Invariant co-ordinate selection

Summary.  A general method for exploring multivariate data by comparing different estimates of multivariate scatter is presented. The method is based on the eigenvalue–eigenvector decomposition of one scatter matrix relative to another. In particular, it is shown that the eigenvectors can be used to generate an affine invariant co-ordinate system for the multivariate data. Consequently, we view this method as a method for invariant co-ordinate selection . By plotting the data with respect to this new invariant co-ordinate system, various data structures can be revealed. For example, under certain independent components models, it is shown that the invariant co- ordinates correspond to the independent components. Another example pertains to mixtures of elliptical distributions. In this case, it is shown that a subset of the invariant co-ordinates corresponds to Fisher's linear discriminant subspace, even though the class identifications of the data points are unknown. Some illustrative examples are given.     

Evaluation of the impact of intervention programmes on education organisations: Application to a Quality Management System

This paper analyses the importance of evaluating the various components of the programmes or actions carried out by education organisations. It highlights the need to assess the impact of the intervention on the organisation and consider how changes are consolidated over time in interaction with the context. We propose an impact evaluation model and as an example have chosen the implementation of Quality Management Systems in schools. The paper analyses the results obtained in 40 schools in three regions (Spanish Autonomous Communities) with varying levels of implementation. The results show overall impact on these education centres as the teachers and management teams of the centres perceive it. This impact is more evident in some of the dimensions considered in the study than in others. The results also confirm the differences between regional contexts.