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排序方式: 共有160条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
This paper argues that Fisher's paradox can be explained away in terms of estimator choice. We analyse by means of Monte Carlo experiments the small sample properties of a large set of estimators (including virtually all available single-equation estimators), and compute the critical values based on the empirical distributions of the t-statistics, for a variety of Data Generation Processes (DGPs), allowing for structural breaks, ARCH effects etc. We show that precisely the estimators most commonly used in the literature, namely OLS, Dynamic OLS (DOLS) and non-prewhitened FMLS, have the worst performance in small samples, and produce rejections of the Fisher hypothesis. If one employs the estimators with the most desirable properties (i.e., the smallest downward bias and the minimum shift in the distribution of the associated t-statistics), or if one uses the empirical critical values, the evidence based on US data is strongly supportive of the Fisher relation, consistently with many theoretical models. 相似文献
2.
Franses Philip Hans 《Econometric Reviews》1995,14(1):55-63
In this paper it is shown that several models for a bivariate nonstationary quarterly time series are nested in a vector autoregression with cointegration restrictions for the eight annual series of quarterly observations. Or, the Granger Representation Theorem is extended to incorporate, e.g., seasonal and periodic cointegration. 相似文献
3.
Franses Philip Hans 《Econometric Reviews》2013,32(1):55-63
In this paper it is shown that several models for a bivariate nonstationary quarterly time series are nested in a vector autoregression with cointegration restrictions for the eight annual series of quarterly observations. Or, the Granger Representation Theorem is extended to incorporate, e.g., seasonal and periodic cointegration. 相似文献
4.
The aim of this study is to compare performances of commonly cointegration tests used in literature in terms of their empirical power and type I error probabilty for various sample sizes. As a result of the study, it has been found that some tests are not appropriate in testing cointegration in terms of empirical power and type I error probability. As a result of simulation study, λmax test for any values of ρ and sample sizes have been found most appropriate test in conclusion. 相似文献
5.
Massimo Franchi 《Econometric Reviews》2019,38(10):1176-1201
A generalization of the Granger and the Johansen Representation Theorems valid for any (possibly fractional) order of integration is presented. This Representation Theorem is based on inversion results that characterize the order of the pole and the coefficients of the Laurent series representation of the inverse of a matrix function around a singular point. Explicit expressions of the matrix coefficients of the (polynomial) cointegrating relations, of the Common Trends and of the Triangular representations are provided, either starting from the Moving Average or the Auto Regressive form. This contribution unifies different approaches in the literature and extends them to an arbitrary order of integration. The role of deterministic terms is discussed in detail. 相似文献
6.
《Journal of Policy Modeling》2020,42(3):583-596
We analyze the Russian restriction on chicken imports as an example of a non-tariff barrier (NTB). Cointegration test results support the hypothesis that the NTB limited trade. We calibrate an equilibrium market model to cointegration results to assess the market impact. The tariff equivalent of the Russian chicken NTB is estimated to be 30 − 40% depending on the representation of consumer demand. Removing the NTB decreases domestic production by 4–5% and domestic price by 27%–34%, while imports increase by 326–423 thousand tons annually in 2015–2019. 相似文献
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8.
In this article, two new powerful tests for cointegration are proposed. The general idea is based on an intuitively appealing extension of the traditional, rather restrictive cointegration concept. In this article, we allow for a nonlinear, but most importantly a different, asymmetric convergence process to account for negative and positive changes in our cointegration approach. Using Monte Carlo simulations we verify, that the estimated size of the first test depends on the unknown value of a signal-to-noise ratio q. However, our second test—which is based on the original ideas of Kanioura and Turner—is more successful and robust in the sense that it works in all of the different evaluated situations. Furthermore it is shown to be more powerful than the traditional residual based Enders and Siklos method. The new optimal test is also applied in an empirical example in order to test for potential nonlinear asymmetric price transmission effects on the Swedish power market. We find that there is a higher propensity for power retailers to rapidly and systematically increase their retail electricity prices subsequent to increases in Nordpool's wholesale prices, than there is for them to reduce their prices subsequent to a drop in wholesale spot prices. 相似文献
9.
金融发展与贸易依存度的实证研究——基于东部十省市面板数据的协整分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文利用东部十省市的面板数据,研究金融发展与贸易依存度的关系。运用面板单位根检验和面板协整检验,建立面板协整模型进行分析。结果显示:金融发展仅与进口依存度存在长期均衡关系,且不同省市金融发展对进口依存度的推动作用不同。最后分析其作用差异的潜在原因,并根据实证结果提出了政策建议。 相似文献
10.