Analyzing Evacuation Versus Shelter‐in‐Place Strategies After a Terrorist Nuclear Detonation

We superimpose a radiation fallout model onto a traffic flow model to assess the evacuation versus shelter‐in‐place decisions after the daytime ground‐level detonation of a 10‐kt improvised nuclear device in Washington, DC. In our model, ≈80k people are killed by the prompt effects of blast, burn, and radiation. Of the ≈360k survivors without access to a vehicle, 42.6k would die if they immediately self‐evacuated on foot. Sheltering above ground would save several thousand of these lives and sheltering in a basement (or near the middle of a large building) would save of them. Among survivors of the prompt effects with access to a vehicle, the number of deaths depends on the fraction of people who shelter in a basement rather than self‐evacuate in their vehicle: 23.1k people die if 90% shelter in a basement and 54.6k die if 10% shelter. Sheltering above ground saves approximately half as many lives as sheltering in a basement. The details related to delayed (i.e., organized) evacuation, search and rescue, decontamination, and situational awareness (via, e.g., telecommunications) have very little impact on the number of casualties. Although antibiotics and transfusion support have the potential to save ≈10k lives (and the number of lives saved from medical care increases with the fraction of people who shelter in basements), the logistical challenge appears to be well beyond current response capabilities. Taken together, our results suggest that the government should initiate an aggressive outreach program to educate citizens and the private sector about the importance of sheltering in place in a basement for at least 12 hours after a terrorist nuclear detonation.     

An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1—Decision Support System

This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human–natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program.     

Evacuation from Natural Disasters: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Research on evacuation from natural disasters has been published across the peer‐reviewed literature among several disparate disciplinary outlets and has suggested a wide variety of predictors of evacuation behavior. We conducted a systematic review to summarize and evaluate the current literature on demographic, storm‐related, and psychosocial correlates of natural disaster evacuation behavior. Eighty‐three eligible papers utilizing 83 independent samples were identified. Risk perception was a consistent positive predictor of evacuation, as were several demographic indicators, prior evacuation behavior, and having an evacuation plan. The influence of prior experiences, self‐efficacy, personality, and links between expected and actual behavior were examined less frequently. Prospective, longitudinal designs are relatively uncommon. Although difficult to conduct in postdisaster settings, more prospective, methodologically rigorous studies would bolster inferences. Results synthesize the current body of literature on evacuation behavior and can help inform the design of more effective predisaster evacuation warnings and procedures.     

Evacuating People with Mobility‐Challenges in a Short‐Notice Disaster

In past disasters, arrangements have been made to evacuate people without their own transportation, requiring them to gather at select locations to be evacuated. Unfortunately, this type of plan does not help those people who are unable to move themselves to the designated meeting locations. In the United States, according to the Post‐Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006, state or local governments have the responsibility to coordinate evacuation plans for all populations. These include those with disabilities. However, few, if any, have plans in place for those who are mobility‐challenged. The problem of evacuating mobility‐challenged people from their individual locations in a short‐notice disaster is a challenging combinatorial optimization problem. In order to develop the model and select a solution approach, we surveyed related literature. Based on our review, we formulate the problem and develop an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm to solve it. We then test two different versions of the ACO algorithm on five stylized datasets with several different parameter settings.     

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate.     

Where professional and personal values may clash: social workers' attitudes towards professional involvement in the evacuation of Israeli settlers from Gaza and Northern Samaria

Israel's evacuation of settlers from their homes in Gaza and North Samaria provided a real time opportunity to examine social workers' attitudes towards offering their services in controversial political situations. This study, conducted shortly before the evacuation, is a qualitative examination of the attitudes of 108 Israeli social workers towards offering professional services to the evacuees. Findings show that while most respondents supported social worker involvement, around a quarter either qualified their support or objected outright. Calls are made to ensure that professional services and resources become available to persons of all political persuasions and in all political situations.     

Canada’s evacuation policy for pregnant First Nations women: Resignation,resilience, and resistance

Background

Aboriginal peoples in Canada are comprised of First Nations, Métis, and Inuit. Health care services for First Nations who live on rural and remote reserves are mostly provided by the Government of Canada through the federal department, Health Canada. One Health Canada policy, the evacuation policy, requires all First Nations women living on rural and remote reserves to leave their communities between 36 and 38 weeks gestational age and travel to urban centres to await labour and birth. Although there are a few First Nations communities in Canada that have re-established community birthing and Aboriginal midwifery is growing, most First Nations communities are still reliant on the evacuation policy for labour and birthing services. In one Canadian province, Manitoba, First Nations women are evacuated to The Pas, Thompson, or Winnipeg but most – including all women with high-risk pregnancies – go to Winnipeg.

清初迁海事件中的潮州宗族

清初迁海事件,一直为国史和地方史研究者所关注,已经有许多出色的研究成果。本文的旨趣,不在迁海事件本身,而以潮州为例,利用族谱、碑刻等地方文献资料,论述迁海与复界的过程,宗族作为一种自16世纪以后日益重要的地方社会力量,与执行国家权力的官府之间的互动。     

Childbirth evacuation among rural and remote Indigenous communities in Canada: A scoping review

ProblemRoutine evacuation of pregnant Indigenous women from remote regions to urban centres for childbirth is a central strategy for addressing maternal health disparities in Canada. Maternal evacuation continues despite mounting evidence of its negative impacts on Indigenous women and families.BackgroundSince the 1960s, pregnant Indigenous women living in remote regions in Canada have been transferred to urban hospitals for childbirth. In the following decades, evidence emerged linking maternal evacuation with negative impacts on Indigenous women, their families, and communities. In some communities, resistance to evacuation and the creation of local birthing facilities has resulted in highly diverse experiences of childbirth and evacuation.AimA scoping review mapped the evidence on maternal evacuation of Indigenous women in Canada and its associated factors and outcomes from 1978 to 2019.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL, and grey literature from governmental and Indigenous organizations. We collated the evidence on maternal evacuation into 12 themes.ResultsFactors related to evacuation include (a) evacuation policies (b) institutional coercion (c) remoteness and (d) maternal-fetal health status. Evacuation-related outcomes include (e) maternal-child health impacts (f) women’s experience of evacuation (g) financial hardships (h) family disruption (i) cultural continuity and community wellness (ij) engagement with health services (k) self-determination, and (l) quality of health services.DiscussionNumerous emotional, social and cultural harms are associated with evacuation of Indigenous women in Canada. Little is known about the long-term impacts of evacuation on Indigenous maternal-infant health. Evidence on evacuation from remote Métis communities remains a critical knowledge gap.